RE: Licensing background: As per suggestion Affimer conjugate drugs / pot. business model GF22 Oct 2022 12:08
Blimey, that makes for some reading. It also screams that a takeover is most likely. Why would a big pharma fling over multiple billions for an individual drug in the pipeline when we’re languishing on comical AIM and they can scoop the lot?
Shows how many deals of this type go on. We’re clearly in a niche with FAP and hopefully very likely to succeed where others have failed. Are our other pipeline projects similar in that we’d be taking the max advantage of our unique IP? If we’re the Heineken of the drug world and uniquely positioned in reaching the parts others can’t, can we expect premiums over and above typical valuations?
Trinity Delta currently come up woefully short with their modelled valuation given the prices that big pharma are paying. However, part of their cautiously low valuation is that they are still modelling that we’ll be licensing out AVA6k at 15%. They’re also only assigning a chance of success of 10% - this will hopefully be unwound very soon, any improvement over standard dox results in a market winner. Changing the CoS to 100% and owning 100% uplifts their value by a factor of 60+. They’re assigning about a quid to Tx, so let’s suggest £60-70 for starters when big pharma come knocking, so roll on the results.
Think I’ll treat myself to a strong buy recommendation.