Member Info for pickedpeck

NG - I have a tiger explorer and a T595 Daytona amongst the fleet, so know all about the sound. The Daytona has an anti social carbon pipe on too!

Electric bikes are coming though, soon too. Get a 200 mile range and people will start switching purely on the economics, couriers (what's left of them) and police first.

Nearly though

https://www.bennetts.co.uk/bikesocial/reviews/bikes/zero/zero-srf-2020-electric-motorcycle-review

Needs more nickel in the battery pack to stretch the range a bit, seems like that and price the only real downsides. How long before Honda, Triumph and BMW etc jump on this? Electric bike racing to rival formula E anyone?

Purely speculatively, but looking at the daily volumes vs price you would think that our last big seller was out around the end of October where the price dipped to 5.7ish. Volumes since have been relatively low, with the one exception of the last few days. I think based on the Ni price and commodities becoming seriously fashionable we could see a continued drift upwards before a pretty sharp spike on announcement(s). This quarter looks likely to be quite exciting, imagine full finance coinciding with pandemic getting under control via vaccines coinciding with the new green deal both sides of the Atlantic.

When you open the Horizonte Web site the landing page is 'The Leading Nickel Development Company' superimposed on an EV battery pack rather than some stainless steel widgets or thingumajigs. The prize is the EV driver of the Ni market, everyone knows it. Vermelho will have its day in the sun, probably sooner rather than later. Araguaia is part of a means to get there not the destination.

ATD - There are almost too many funding options now for the target required. Why bother with equity if all you need is a tenner!

VV - the project financing is a split between debt, off takes, export credit, and equity. $443m needed for Araguaia PH 1.
The debt was senior debt, agreed a mandate to five major banks $325m, Brazilian banks $32m. ECAs are effectively debt but are low cost credit to buy equipment, for example trucks for the mine. The ECA portion has not been announced. Off takes started with Orion Mine Finance, but there will be others announced, the terms have to be getting ever more favourable for these. Of you assume at least $25m for ECAs to make it worthwhile, then that leaves $61m to split between off takes and equity to get to the $443 number. There was $17m left in the pot from Orion too....

I suspect we may get a much larger surprise where a deal is cut to fund both Phase 1 & 2, otherwise the equity cornerstone may be at the relatively peanuts level.

Been quiet as had nothing much to add to the conversation over the last few days. However some interesting trades today, not the big ones, but the 3 x 100 buys at 8.40 at 15:02 and again at 8.00 at 16:26 . I don't buy into MM signals stuff, just seems an odd pattern particularly as the first lot were the highest price paid in months.
A bit like wasa this rise is bad timing for me, I'm expecting a decent lump sum and was hoping to put it in sub 7p, looks like that may not happen.

Happy new year to all.
My predictions are pretty simple. I think the price will double in 2021, and double again in 2022. Whether it will double again in 2023 is up for debate, but :

14.7p on 31/1/21 ,
29.4p on 31/1/22 and,
58.8p on 31/1/23

would make me a very happy retiree. I think that is not far off realistic, with Araguaia phase 1 in production with Nickel at > $25k per ton and both Araguaia Phase 2 and Vermelho in development. Assuming 2Bn shares by then, that would be a mkt cap of £1.18bn

Other predictions include Horizonte renaming itself to Horizonte Nickel sometime this year, and Nickel reaching $24k per ton during 2021 rising to $30k per ton by the end of 2023 making if anything the above market caps look crazily cheap.

Happy Christmas all, or as those around here say Nadolig llawen!

Strummer, I agree with almost everything you said exceot I don't want this to do a GGP, I want it to do a HZM : A solid steady rise to production and a step change when Vermelho is formally launched.

See you all in the new year!

This penny has taken a while to drop. The Araguaia project area is actually about the same size as the whole of Bedfordshire, nearly 120,000 hectares spread across 20 licenses. Vermelho by comparison is 'only' 2,000 hectares. The relative areas and the contained nickel are interesting, Vermelho at 1/60th of the area of Araguaia has more nickel. Really? The company stopped talking about the size of the projects in terms of area and exploration, but wouldn't it be interesting if there was more to Araguaia than meets the eye.

The amount of misinformation here has been really interesting to watch. With a micro cap relatively illiquid share like AYM it is possible to create a pump and dump scenario where misinformation, exaggeration, and a little seed money can create a rise that more people will buy into creating momentum that the pumpers can dump into before disappearing back into the ether. That tends to happen on very short time scales, weeks and days, and bears no relevance to what the underlying assets or business may be worth to investors rather than speculators.

An actual mineral discovery hype cycle follows the well known Lassonde curve. Have a read here if you are interested in how the mineral exploration and mining investment cycle really works : https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/

A PEA is not investable, it simply reduces speculation over a discovery, or in this case rediscovery, of a mineral asset's very rough value. In order to make it investable the various stages of a Feasibility Study need to be executed and finance raised.

From a market cap of £3.5m a few weeks ago the company was undervalued in a rising commodity market, but they have no current validated NPV or IRR for their assets, any of them. So fair value is speculative only and can be anything, in fact it is what someone is prepared to pay on what it might be worth in the future. See Lassonde curve again.

You could say that the potential sale of LIMH (LIM) could raise money for AYM to carry out additional drilling and the consulting work to build out the Parys Mountain Feasibility Study post PEA, but it seems very unlikely that it will be worth a zillion % more than today for some time to come. Real value will only be realised in several years - yes it takes that long - when and if Parys Mountain mine construction starts post investment, post FS, post drilling, post PEA. If you have bought in here and believe that journey will take place and can wait for the value then fair enough. If you've bought in as part of a get rich quick its boom time scheme, then good luck. It won't happen quickly.

Personally I bought in as I am local to NW Wales, would like to see Parys back in production, and think its possible over a three to five year timescale we may see that happen. I doubt it will be AYM that would bring it back, I would much prefer there to be asset sales of all three primary assets and an associated exit for long term share holders and production managed by a tier 1 or even tier 2 miner. That's my speculation on this.

There was a lot contained in last week's Araguaia Operational Update RNS and it needed a bit of mulling over. In the interests of openness this is by far my biggest holding so it is always under consideration despite the Warren Buffet advice of find a good company, but in and then do nothing!

Basically I have been wondering what next for the share price and how this will play out over the next few months and then few years.

Key points in the update but not said directly -
- Equity dilution will be diminished and is underpinned now by a cornerstone investor. ECAs, Brazilian Banks, offtake agreements.
- No cost inflation despite currency shifts and pandemic effects
- Long term offtakeS are being negotiated. Multiple long term agreements guarantee the income stream, that would add a lot of value.
- Power, permits, team, ESG are all in place to start build. The mine is being built, this is not the set of actions for divestment.
- Nickel base case now $2000 higher than the original FS value of $14000. I don't think it would be unreasonable to work the economics now on $20,000 a ton.

So what will happen to the share price. Before last week it had been very quiet for quite a long time. The share price was drifting, some rainbow chasers lost interest, no new institutional investors coming on board, not a lot happening against a market backdrop of wildly veering prices of even some bluechips. Given the lack of news flow I think the price held up surprisingly well.

If we go into another quiet period it is tempting to think the share price may drift again, but I think perhaps not. There is enough in the announcement to suggest where the longer term value is going. Those of us that got in early enough might be looking at our profits and be tempted to move elsewhere in the quiet period. I'm not but I am sure other PIs have. What we may see is a crew change from early speculators to early investors. As some speculators leave, people looking at a lower risk return may be entering. That's supporting the price now, but may cause it to rise slowly as people digest the news.

So why would early investors enter? Simply because a share price now of in the 6s will in two years time translate to 30p+ as we enter production. If Vermelho is advanced in that period (2 years from PFS) that could add another 40p to the price. Happy to show workings if needed, but even if I am 25% out then it is still a fantastic investment.

This has gone from being a speculation two years ago to being a solid investment now. There are very low risks now with fully permitted assets underpinning the share price, whilst an upside minimum of 5x and possibly 10x plus over two years should attract risk averse growth investors.

In short - this is one of the best low risk investments on the market. I think we will see a drift up as that is more widely recognised, with the occasional mini surge on step change news flow

Got some at 1.498 on 19th of March, highest 8.045 2nd of September.

So much for sitting on hands, just bought some more at 6.45. Ridiculous that this should drop on this news. This is about as nailed on as it gets in terms of junior mining. In demand commodity, permits in place, capex / opex confirmed, outstanding ESG credentials, great management team, multiple resources to develop. Exactly what is the weakness here? Am I missing something? I've been invested in other M&M stocks where the valuation is a multiple of this for a tiny fraction of the resource potential. Rational markets my hairy backside.

So a lot of excitement about LIM coming up for sale driven by the rising iron ore prices, but Grangesberg must also start to look a lot more attractive to restart given its rich iron ore output. With an option for up to 50.1% owenrship what are the prospects of accelerating work to either bring it back to production or to sell?

Informed opinions welcome.

Ivor - they were right , it is good news. I'm sitting on my hands, trying to trade this is a fools errand.

Nthofriver - It doesn't really matter, if a rolling credit facility it means the £15m in the bank left over from the Orion offtake agreement can be put towards the project, similar net result. The capex numbers had a relatively high contingency in them also, if they don't eat into the contingency then they won't need the extra credit.

I was probably being very pessimistic with the ECA portions also, more than one agency, the equipment cost will be a higher value. Additional offtakes - plural - could also easily bridge the gap. Basically the announcement implies several means to hit the capex budget
I'm definitely reading this as equity dilution on Araguaia will be zero to minimal, certainly way below the expected additional billion shares or even 500million previously thought.

Wasa et al...

Quite the update. Blimey where to start.

Bearing in mind this effectively says the finance package for Araguaia will mean minimal if any dilution, the capex rubber stamped as correct. $325 from the five banks, $32 from the Brazilian Bank, leaving $85 to find. ECAs surely another $20+ for equipment, with the Brazil development agency and off takes that could easily mean zero dilution. That's frankly a stunning result if achieved, basically a wow moment.

Keeping equity powder dry also means that equity dilution could be used to fund accelerating Vermelho if needed. This being purely an Araguaia announcement means we can expect something on Vermelho separately.

I see this as the most investable company on AIM by a mile.

I think we have discussed this before on here, but for anyone that's new or missed it the link below describes the normal valuation process of a mining company.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/

I think we are at the point where HZM is going to transition from Orphan to Growth, the inflection point being the switch from Feasibility to Development. This curve has been followed by many mining companies and is a fair representation of the valuation process in my view. We are at or near the bottom of the orphan trough, higher than the pre feasibility lows (3.5 - 4p range) , covid bottom being a black swan and irrelevant to the curve.

If you agree with the principle then in approximately 2-3 years HZM will reach maximum value to coincide with the coming nickel price spike. We will be entering production, the maximum valuation point, just as the world nickel supply crunch hits.

The only question is will we be taken out before that. From the language of Orion in their recent video, I think they are positioning to defend against that as they and others know the extraordinary value on offer here. For a long time I though HZM would be sold before production, now I think it is less likely as the key stakeholders want that maximum value and I don't think any of them will be able to seize it alone.

No one knows what the price will be in 2 years time at peak, but it will be multiples of the current price. When we enter production my bet is that the sp will be somewhere around 50p, maybe higher. Full production and onward development could make it to three digits.

I agree, two months ago saying it would take two months to complete the finance report means about now... I would also like to hear about the power permit situation nowish. I'm a bit miffed that we hadn't heard about that already