Member Info for pickedpeck

Wasa - those were the two key pieces. The destination for Nickel is interesting earlier in the magazine.

I agree we should be hearing about power line permitting and the finance time line directly from the company rather than via a Brazilian minerals magazine.

The easiest way to read the text is to hit the PDF button and then copy / paste into Google translate

Ok I'll drop a hint. I dind't know about the power line thing , or the timeline for the opex and capex statement until I read this article.
If you're invested here, READ IT.

Or use google translate , pages 22-31 of the magazine below are about Horizonte. The rest of the mag is about mineral extraction in Amazonas / Para State, worth a read too. Some interesting titbits in the article, but I won't spoil your fun.

https://www.brasilmineral.com.br/revista/403/

Could be one of the free trading accounts like Trade212 has started coverage, no broker fees and school kids being taught about the market - classroom competition , invest your £10 to see if you can make enough for a pack of crisps from the tuck shop.

This was the reply from Anna Legge:

Thank you your email.



I can confirm there was a typo in the results published yesterday with the prior year comparatives, as per the June interims with PPE valued at £32,260,544. The total fixed assets are correct - this is just a reclassification that was done between intangible assets and PPE at the end of 2019.



Secondly the value of the PPE is BRL denominated (as the project is based in brazil) and therefore there is a change in carrying value due to movements in the foreign exchange rates over the period. The BRL has depreciated significantly over the 9 months of this year which has resulted in a reduction in the value of the PPE asset. This can be seen by the “Currency translation of foreign operations” line in other comprehensive income. This is as you correctly state offset by additions made during the period.

Rover, I wrote to the company on the error I. The latest results on Property Plant and Equipment and got a reply confirming the typo . This is not new spend, I wish it was. Check back through previous results to verify, I will try and dig out the reply to post it.

Anyone else struggling to get a quote this morning? I can't get an automated quote for any amount right now.

Wasa - There is an NPV calculation for a combined Vermelho - SDT RKEF project in the Vermelho FS. States SDT i 120km by road from Vermelho. NPV about $1.4Bn , less than the HPAL route for vermelho alone. Seems like an RKEF could be built for SDT as a stand alone which would bear comparison to Araguaia.
The Kierserite by product from vermelho is not priced in either, 158kt pa. It sells for around a dollar a kilo, but even just that over a 30 year mine life is $4.7Bn for just the byproduct.
There are lots of options beyond Araguaia Stage 1, and multiple other resources that can be brought on. Deep pockets could massively accelerate it all.

I watched the video too, and the interesting bits where they are clearly identifying Horizonte as an example of extraordinary good practice are encouraging for sure. What I also found interesting was the part where they discussed helping bring in additional management team capacity and skills from their back catalogue of experienced pros.
The existing management team can't tackle Araguaia and Vermelho at the same time, let alone also bring on Serra Do Tapa and the other resources. The working assumption is accelerate via a JV or partner, but it seemed what Philip Clegg was alluding to is the ability Orion bring to the table to scale the organization horizontally (pun intended) to manage multiple projects in parallel.
It seems to me that once Araguaia funding is finalized and mine build underway we may well see a further series of investments in the optionality to bring the whole district into production.
It was also interesting to note that Orion still say construction still planned to start next year, that doesn't imply much slip and was from an ear pretty close to the horse's mouth.

This video is the strongest evidence I have heard yet that I've been wrong about assuming a takeout transaction, and that the plan is to actually get to production! That would be an amazing feat for such a small company, if they manage to get to production as the existing entity then the value here could be extremely high.

It makes me wonder if the professional materials, investor presentations, videos, ESG approach are all aimed at you and I, small investors with dreams of big enough multiples to be prepared to sit on the equity as a great defence to corporate take out on the cheap. Interesting strategy if that's the case, but it seems to be working as a very high proportion of the company is help by PIs vs IIs.

Blimey. A lot to digest and mull over the weekend.

Just have a look at the original posters posts elsewhere for pure comedy value. Genuinely one of the most unintentionally funny posters I have ever seen!

Testing the fertilizer byproduct :)

Same guys as were pictured in the sustainability report earlier in the year. Green credentials and all that. Can't help but think its a mistake or prep for a presentation that shouldn't have been published yet.

The debt announcement on the 12th of August was the likely result of negotiations based on the business case during the summer. At the 1st of July nickel was $12500, now its nudging 20% up from there and bouncing off $16000.

If construction is not delayed beyond 1st quarter then we have to see something soon, if it is delayed, it is not credible to continue to be silent on the matter. We are due a quarterly report, I am hopeful for some material updates in that.

Thanks both. I get the renewables drive, one of my other investments is also in a Brazilian nickel miner in development. Its the timing that I was curious about, it feels like Brazilian nickel is a way off whilst other assets seem to be winding down a bit. The intervening 3 and a bit years between now and nickel production would need to be filled with something else to maintain the dividend / income stream level.
Of course commodities may recover strongly next year assuming the pandemic winds down, but there is a lot of damage to the global economy to be resolved also.

I have to say the share buy back looks like a strange decision given that view. Could they really not find anything that would drive income and growth with the cash? I wonder if a large investor pushed them into it?
Tricky position.

Sorry for the question here, I am sure the information is out there to be found but just hoping someone here knows the answers:

1. Is the latest dividend payment date is Friday 13th? When is the next xd?
2. Does APF offer a scrip dividend option?
3. How confident is everyone that dividend coverage will be maintained?
4. What is going to grow the dividend? Surely the depressed market during the pandemic was opportunity to invest in new discounted assets rater than do a buy back?
5. Brazil Nickel looks like a capital growth project rather than an income generator, at least in the short term. How does it fit with what otherwise looks like an revenue stream income / dividend based company strategy?

Sorry if these are obvious questions and have been covered previously

To add a British slant , Winston Churchill said ‘The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter’
Here are some average voter conversations: https://www.instagram.com/tv/CHN1EzKFO5C/?igshid=dea30359ea7p

This word 'elite' has become a dirty word. What does it actually mean? There have been movements in the world that have been anti elitist before, where being educated and a thinker have been seen very negatively. Wikipedia says 'Anti intellectualism is hostility to and mistrust of intellect, intellectuals, and intellectualism, commonly expressed as deprecation of education and philosophy and the dismissal of art, literature, and science as impractical, politically motivated, and even contemptible human pursuits'. Does that sound familiar? If not look up Pol Pot, the White Terror in Spain, or Juan Carlos Ongania in Argentina. If you like what those regimes achieved, the deaths of hundreds of thousands of doctors, professors, scientists, artists, or in fact any random person they didn't like, then I think we have lost your way.

I'm not one for science fiction, but quoting Isaac Asimov is always entertaining as he was a bit of a prophet 'There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge".' He said that in 1980.

Ask yourself whether you would like the smartest person with the deepest interest in the well being of people to be in charge, or someone with little education that is good at little but greed and acquiring power.

The economics will drive the change.

Fracking needs oil at $45 plus a barrel just to break even on production costs, never mind repay the capex. Whilst aero, shipping, and industrial uses will take years to get the electric storage energy density levels needed to get away from carbon based, power generation and road / rail transport are a big enough part of the demand to drive down oil prices as they shift to renewables as primary source. The shift will take ten years though as there are an awful lot of carbon powered machines about and they won't be replaced overnight.

Oil at $25-40 a barrel kills fracking, removes global influence from the middle east, and undermines Russia's economic power. WTI $37 a barrel at the moment, Brent hardly higher. At this price fracking loses money per barrel.

View the mine on google maps 54.6940739,-66.7822654

Looks quite big :)

I am an ex VP at RR, its not just most profit, it is income. Their civil aero contracts are for the most part done on the basis of flying hours = revenue, the company has reshaped a bit since I left but that was around 70% of Aero's income. For defence they still mostly sell engines and service though, but in very small relative numbers. Service contracts for defence have not been affected by Covid, funnily enough the RAF, USAF and others are still flying about! The nuclear subs are still out and about too I believe.

RR don't make money by selling aero engines, they make money when they fly (Power By the Hour). Their revenue has collapsed not through lack of new sales, but lack of flying hours. Pretty basic misunderstanding of their business model.