Member Info for pickedpeck

You might hire one of these in advance of finance:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HZM/appointment-of-head-of-projects-oj044zlpdwd86ul.html

Or perhaps one of these:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HZM/appointment-of-project-director-for-araguaia-iuvilrxvhr3rhn9.html

Oh, wait, they did.

Link for Shanghai prices here:

https://price.metal.com/mobile/Ni/spot

Unless you subscribe the spot prices will be a week out of date, but you can also get prices for NPI, briquettes and different specs.

I'd be happy to double my money, what an odd thing to say! How would I lose out exactly if the price doubled from here? If an offer came in you think somehow I would sell my shares before the hammer came down in the auction that would follow?
I've got this as an investment not a trade, the volume I hold is way above a tradeable level so I can't easily dip in and out apart from some fringe trades.

Personally I would rather there was a takeover. It's been my preferred exit since I first bought in. I'd take an offer of 15p plus, there are a long list of potential bidders at that kind of price from BHP down.

However the board and executive have said all along they want to be a top tier nickel producer and have taken every step with that in mind. They have the funding, staff, permits and more all in place to build Araguaia, it's a when not an if.

The restrictions placed on the cornerstone finmace houses makes it a moot point anyway, it is at least a quarter away before either can sell any shares at all let alone accept an incoming bid for the lot.

I never filtered you, I said I needed to see what nonsense you posted in order to call it out as such.

Only three trades in the day below 6p, and those at 5.99. I am genuine surprised to see it down here, but rather than look a gift horse in the mouth I sold some HSBA to add some more here. Still increases my average, but can't see it stayi g here for long given where nickel stocks and LME price are. Shanghai even pricier.

Contrarian - are you a secret large holder attempting to generate positive responses by deliberately posting negative nonsense? It's the only explanation I can think of for your persistence in posting such rubbish.

Every single member of the global and in country leadership teams is a top tier professional, way stronger that you would typically find in an AIM company. The board of directors too reads like a who's who of mining development. Beyond that the major shareholders (Glencore, Tek, La Mancha and Orion) all have teams available to support HZM wity any techcnical or administrative problem you could think of.

I can think of things to pick on, the quiet post finance is uncomfortably long I agree, but trying to suggest the management team is in any way incapable of building a simple, already fully permitted open pit mine is clearly a daft line of attack to take.

Why pick only one?

Hundreds of years of combined mining experience, mostly in S America.

https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/leadership/
https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/board-of-directors/

Any incoming bid would have to be supported by all three of the principle shareholders.

Urion Holdings (Malta) Ltd ("Trafigura") 22.30% (fully-diluted 21.69%)
Yanggu Xiangguang Copper Co. Ltd (‘XGC’) 22.22% (fully-diluted 21.61%)
Liberty Metals & Mining Holdings LLC (“Liberty”) 11.79% (fully-diluted 11.47%)

With those three holding near 55% of the company combined you would have to question what their motivation to sell would be.

Trafigura don't need the money, in fact could potentially increase their stake and be a candidate bidder. But if they were going to do that why haven't they already?
Almost the same story for the Chinese, but would Trafigura sell to them? Maybe, but it would have to be a tidy offer.

Any hostile bid not supported by more than one of the above holders is unlikely to succeed I would think. Having said that deals can be complex and involve an exchange of assets rather than just cash. ATYM is rather obviously becoming a highly cash generative asset and unless the open market really starts to see it that way then one of the existing holders may decide to take it all.

Ivor

Araguaia alone is a decent retirement plan, not for the 14kt production but because of all the options to expand it to double or more that level of production.

This is a very old video from a HZM NED, worth a watch if you haven't seen it already. We are heading towards first production.

https://youtu.be/uDtXVTLdj2A

BHP are supplying Tesla with environmentally friendly Ni from their mines in Western Australia, including retooling the power generation to solar and batteries to replace dirty power.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-to-receive-an-environmentally-friendly-nickel-from-bhp-as-construction-of-a-solar-battery-storage-project-for-it-begins

I wonder if they need some more environmentally projects away from Oz? Somewhere powered by hydro closer to the American Market for example.

Strummer,

I agree and am in a similar position with regards to other opportunities. Its always tempting to think 'if I wasn't her I would be there and look i missed out on that...', in truth though chasing around the market is best done with toy sums rather than serious investment money. I believe the investment case here, and there are several needle moving opportunities which will come in the short medium and long term.

- Araguaia construction update
- Vermelho DFS contract award
- Power line progress
- Recruitment progress
- Final results due early April

Depending on content any one of these things could add significantly to the current 'in limbo' price.

Additionally the Shanghai exchange seems to be sustaining Ni above $26k a ton, LME $23k. Araguaia alone is a cash printing machine at those rates.

Last but not least of my thoughts is the potential for a bid for the whole lot. Frankly I am a little amazed we got this far without being bought out, I still don't see HZM making it to production. The morning they announce bid interest will see a 40-60% preopen jump, maybe more depending on price rumours.

What's called for is patience. Its hard when fomo is strong elsewhere, but imagine what missing out on the actual HZM payoff would feel like.

I see a couple of volume spikes, presumably an ii exit rather than anything else?

No significant RNS, this looks like it is doing its almost annual cycle again, which in turn implies that this is now back to being very under valued.

Strange share this.

RB,

I'm in here for those reasons, but also because of the potential expansion / exploration areas, the new processing plant increasing metal recovery, the not insignificant dividend, and the general impression this is now a well run company with a stable foundation. All of those reasons separate it from RMM which is a bit of a punt on a loss making turnaround. If RMM aren't turning a profit in this copper market then lord help them if there is any sort of hiccup in the Cu price.

I think you may have just seen the bounce off the bottom. Someone sees it as value, £820k buyer late on today. That's ballsy, but probably wise.

Going faster than predicted. Interest rate rises will boost profits. Divi announcement may be priced in now, can see it going past 600p when it is made now.

Ivor - yes they would, 100% profit inside a year and elimination of the risk element. They'd take their arm off.

As for having so many names on the register, what are you on about? Almost all public companies that get taken out have a similar level of complexity. If your argument was valid no plc would ever get bought.

£230m market cap at the close of play. As a potential takeover target there are a few things to consider :

1. How tightly held are the shares?

2. What price would it take to land the company?

3. What's the capital required to fund development?

4. How long to payback the investment?

For 1 I suspect they may be a lot looser now than they were a couple of months ago. Teck and Glencore's control over HZM is effectively gone, so we are now open to a bid from BHP, Vale or whoever wheras six months ago we weren't.

2. Having paid 7p in the equity raise, Orion and La Mancha would only be open to an offer that have them a healthy return for their trouble. Canaccord may also be open to an offer, Teck and or Glen may oppose depending on what they think they may get from it but don't be certain, Glen's offtake may hold even in a change of control so they may be in favour. The PIs do not hold enough to off set the corporate holders if the majority are pro bid. That means a bid price could be a lot lower than we might wish for, 14 or 15p would get it from the corporates. £600m. With £150m sat in the bank that's a net cost to buy of £400-450m. I'd have hoped for twice that, or at least $1Bn given the size of the assets.

3. The company has a big chunk of cash in the bank right now, plus arranged low rate loans tk fund Araguaia that are very likely transferable. A buyer may not need to pout their own cash reserves in for development.

4. Time to full payback is likely inside 5 years. That's got to be attractive compared to many other options. The business cases stand up strongly for acquisition.

So yes, we are a sitting duck, I'd guess an initial bid in the region of 12p a share rising to sell at 14-17p. Yes we all know it is worth more in the long run, but a buyer pays what they can not what they should.

SfH, when I wrote the original post the reply was that 420p was an unreasonable target. Internally HSBC senior management are targeting a swift return to 700p, I think that is realistic for 18 months.

So 500p by Feb looks like it may happen, only 19p to go.

I still see 600p by August as a possibility if the dividends are restored.

BERENBERG CUTS ATALAYA MINING PRICE TARGET TO 480 (490) PENCE - 'BUY'

Interesting they have cut the target price but held the buy rating. 15% or so up from today seems moderate to me.