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It's no wonder action here can be slow when supposed market experts like Cantor can get a date wrong by 2 years. First nickel in the research note says 2025, JM has it in 2023.

This feels a bit like a phoney commodities war. Given the turmoil in the Nickel market in the last two weeks since Putin went mad, the mini mal shift here makes little or no sense at all.
China and the US bank(s), with Glencore and others on the sidelines, also looks like an economic war has broken out. Sooner or later as the commodities hlget squeezed even tighter, and they will, the land grab ofr commodity production will start to look like a battlefield. HZM will be a prized strategic asset in that, its inevitable now that there will be a battle for future control of HZM production. Six months ago this looked probably valuable, now it is going to sit centrally in a commodities market war.

Some big sell trades again today, surprising share price reaction to them. If results turn out poorer than expected then this will have a nasty whiff about it, otherwise it may be a buying opportunity.

Have to say smacks of a leak now.

From a Hsbc point of view it is a very relevant article. If China becomes embroiled on the wrong side of this argument the economic shifts could become profound.

Looking at the energy mix in Spain is interesting, especially given the upcoming solar plant installation and commissioning.

https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/energy_mix.php?countryId=223#:~:text=Looking%20at%20the%20last%20five%20years%20of%20available,nuclear%20power%20plants%3B%20and%200%20from%20geothermal%20sources.

Seems like a healthy mix with sharply falling dependence on fossil fuels. Implies a positive position in 2 - 3 years.

Sorry scratch that question...

'Following the increased 2021 production guidance as announced on 13 October 2021, the Company is also updating its 2021 cost guidance, with cash costs now expected to be in the range of US$2.15/lb - US$2.25/lb and AISC now expected to be at the low end of the previous guidance range of US$2.50/lb - US$2.65/lb.'

The power increases can affect Q4 but not derail the whole year, its more about forward looking costs for 2022 that could be awry. At current prices there is a margin of around $2 a lb to eat into so plenty of room.

All depends on the year end. As someone said below energy prices rising could be a significant short term problem, particularly if they hedged production at a lower price point. Copper weirdly has dropped back a little this week, it has minimal exposure to the Russia Ukraine conflict.

Does anyone know Atalaya's AISC and how much of it is power costs?

Seconded. Blimey.

TDT - I understand that. There is an obvious structural defecit. My point is many analysts had been pinning their hopes on Indonesian / Tsingshan ramp up to help alleviate the short term 2022 problem, that now seems unlikely to happen at the scale hoped for if at all. To me that means the structural defecit that every HZM market graph shows happening in 2025 is now going to come forward 3 years.

Longer term (2-5 years) , it was never going to be enough anyway, there just isn't close to enough coming online to meet demand.

Two big delayed trades this morning dumped the price. Nothing more sinister than one investor moving money. As this is so relatively illiquid big trades like that can shake the price. There isn't a volume move beyond that driving the price down the rest of the days trading looks pretty even.

I don't think it's on the horizon, I think it's here. Tsingshan being unable to invest limits new production in Indonesia, I can see $40k us being maintained through this year and into next.

So what does $70m operating cash flow translate into in terms of eps and share price?

Over 10 years that would be an average of $7m operating cash flow P. A., or about half that in net profit after tax, interest, depreciation (all of which could easily eat the whole $7m BTW) . Say $4m net profit. Back to £ let's say £3m generously.

Against the current mkt cap that would be a PE of 22/3, 7.3. Considering the risk, the possibility of more dilution, the uncertain payments out of operating profit, a future promise of 7.3 PE ratio doesn't seem over exciting.

At the current price tk risk, ten year operating cash flow needs an extra zero to be interesting.

Does inflation adversely affect RKT? Surely sales volume and gross margin in £ increases rather than gets squeezed or am I being naive?

Drop bigger than expected, but seems like a general market move rather than HSBC specific.

Just added some in here today, not a significant chunk but seems crazy to oversell this. RioTinto announcement about Russian exit should be pushing the rest of the mining sector up rather than down!

Bought some in a lower risk portfolio today. Sell off looks over done but we will see.

It's an interesting one. Indonesia's output largely goes to Tsingshan, they may have felt obligated to say something like this to help their main customer out of a jam.
Almost exactly the same statement was made a few months ago and was taken on board by analysts predicting a pull back from $24k to $20k or so, but that forecast was pre-war.

It would be amazing if there was suddenly enough extra capacity coming online to both cause the pullback and bridge for Russia coming under sanctions. Maybe there is an assumption that China will continue to buy Russian nickel minimising disruption.

Just to add, my absolute favourite investments are value share trading below NPV and NAV but with speculative upside. This fits the bill with knobs on. Limited downside, secure upside, potential for very large upside.

With this one it is all about volume. If you look at the one year chart the big moves are preceded by big volume spikes. That means the market makers seem prepared to hold a pool while the trades wash out. Private investors still drive the prices here, there are very rare changes in the institutional holders, canaccord, Teck, Glencore, Orion and La Mancha seem to neither sell nor buy on the open market. Because it is still driven by private investors the now limited speculative opportunity here is shifting holders around. The Lassonde curve for mining shares speaks of speculators leaving and investors joining at this point, that seems to be happening.

Ultimately this will rise towards NPV as the mine is commissioned. People looking for that kind of return in 2 years look a lot more like investors.

Speculators wish for a bid, or news on Vermelho, or something else like a partnership, but theses are possibilities rather than probabilities.

If Vale had gone on to develop Vermelho on their original plan, each $10,000 on Ni would be worth an extra half billion dollars in annual revenue. One bet they got wrong I think. Their loss, our gain.