Member Info for pickedpeck

You need to look at and think about numbers. The 'herd' is irrelevant here, this is a company with a valuation in the billions. This rises or falls based on institutional investors not PIs.

I am worried about the valuation factors. What is a reasonable PE or even PEG ratio for the sector and how are SN doing against it? Is debt:equity a concern, and how will they withstand looming inflationary pressures in the supply chain?

Damn a lack of liquidity. Back up she comes..

Adastra - it looks for all the world like you are trying to ramp a FTSE100 share on your own. Continually spouting 'this is going to blow, share chart says boom, get your tickets here' kind of posts whilst mildly entertaining at first will have absolutely no effect on the sp.

I make it 17.6p on current exchange rate by the way.
LSE site has xd date listed as today. Never seen a big company get something like that wrong in their results, can see it on AIM where numbers quoted can be a bit random.

Dividend date is given twice in the final results....

'A final dividend for 2021 of 23.1 US cents per ordinary share has been proposed by the Board and will be paid, subject to shareholder approval, on 11 May 2022 to shareholders whose names appear on the Register of Members on 1 April 2022 (the record date). The sterling equivalent per ordinary share will be set following the record date. The ex-dividend date is 31 March 2022 and the final day for currency and dividend reinvestment plan ('DRIP') elections is 19 April 2022.'

And...

'The Board is recommending a Final Dividend of 23.1¢ per share (46.2¢ per ADS). Together with the Interim Dividend of 14.4¢ per share (28.8¢ per ADS), this will give a total distribution of 37.5¢ per share (75.0¢ per ADS), unchanged from 2020 and 2019. Subject to confirmation at our Annual General Meeting, the Final Dividend will be paid on 11 May 2022 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 1 April 2022.'

At least they agree with themselves on the payment date. Best hold until Saturday to make sure :)

I saw the sports thing, I think unless you can put numbers on it then it's not real. I understand their healthcare services are more capacity constrained than looking for new customers.
As for the war in Ukraine, tragic as it is, the number of dressings required will likely come from existing stocks. An increase in defence spending would be more likely to have a positive effect as European armies stock up just in case.

The big worry is inflationary pressure (salaries, energy, raw material costs) and whether SN can increase their prices to customers to compensate. If they have CPI based pricing to the NHS for example is fundamentally important.

Broker coverage seems positive, but not as positive as you'd think given the results.

Is xd tomorrow or Friday? I have seen both suggested, need to trawl the RNS feed.

I've read back pages of posts below, but there doesn't seem to be much analysis going on.

PE ratio looks hefty given the low div yield and single digit growth combination is a bit slim. The share buy back scheme should raise those factors a bit, but organic growth and margin may come under inflationary pressure.

I would have thought the pandemic would have favoured SN. but it seems its declined through most of the last two years.

So what is the actual reason to buy here? The very positive results and share buy back haven't really moved the price, so what's the anchor holding the price down? £18m bought vs £8m sold today should have moved it further I would have thought.

Asking for a friend... :)

Even better to see it back above £39, decent recovery.

What, doing actual relevant research rather than spouting meaningless soundbite style empty snipes? I'd rather know as much as possible rather than just guessing from a graph.
The whole market is bent, why single out AIM? Knowing that is part of the rules of the game. If you don't like it you don't have to play.

Look, I am not your father, well not knowingly anyway.

I've made money with property, shares, and even god forbid working. Are you old enough to be part of the workforce yet or are you still popping pimples in the school loos?

Beating 20% a year is all it takes with a compounding effect, but if you can beat 50% a year then it's faster. HZM on a three year timeline is beating the higher number by a mile at the moment, I see no reason for it not to continue.

It's not about divi, it is about total ROCE. Do you need it explaining with crayons and a few nice pictures?

He is also quoted as saying 'it is really important to make your first million, that's hard, but it gets a lot easier after that'
Yep done that. Have you?

Warren Buffett once said, “The first rule of an investment is don't lose [money]. And the second rule of an investment is don't forget the first rule."

Furthermore Warren Buffett's strategy for picking winning stocks starts with evaluating a company based on his value investing philosophy.
Buffett looks for companies that provide a good return on equity over many years, particularly when compared to rival companies in the same industry.
When looking for a great company to invest in, Buffett also reviews a company's profit margins to ensure they are healthy and growing.
Buffett focuses on companies that provide a unique product or service that gives them a competitive advantage; he also focuses on companies that are undervalued that he can purchase at a good discount.

So how does HZM stand up?

Defensive value is solid, underpinned by cash and assets. You're not going to lose your money.

What about ROCE over many years? Using IRR as a good proxy indicator then with nickel at any value above $15k IRR will be above 25%, above $20k its well above 30% beating Buffet's target of 20% in all but calamity markets. Mine life is anything from 30-40 years, more than long enough.

Unique product or service? Nothing unique about nickel per se, but it is in constrained supply for the next decade or so, becoming more constrained by the day in fact. There isn't a substitute for it in stainless steel, and no obvious substitute for stainless in many applications. As a battery cathode other options may emerge in the future, but there is a lot of momentum behind Li Ion batteries right now. A ten year market rate offtake with Glencore also makes marketing pretty simple.

Competitive advantage - lowest quartile cost producer with amongst the highest ESG credentials in a Western friendly jurisdiction ticks that box I think.

So, you can chase around the market, winning and losing, or invest here Berkshire Hathaway style and wait for your profit to come to you. The first wait is for production, equity value growth of 3x or more in that time. The second wait is for scale up across the assets whilst generating income. Equity value growth a further 3x plus. The final wait would be for your dividends and income each year, with a huge projected IRR the dividend income could be higher than the current share price.

'this is not going nowhere' - that's the first correct thing you have written. Well done.

If you're shuffling your fantasy share league around you can be in and out of shares very quickly I guess, and it's a lot easier to be right all the time when you choose to ignore your turkeys.

Price and NAV now aligned, bizarre how that happens. In a rising trend should we see the price ahead of NAV soon?

Frustration Over Idiot Contrarian more like. You really do post some nonsense.

@FTC7,
There was some new stuff. New chairman upcoming. Some more contracts awarded, plus some extra detail on the works in progress. I admit not the stuff dreams are made of... But reaffirming the 2 year timeline and highlighting Vermelho development also positive.

So is everyone thinking we go along flat for two years then take off vertically at the start of production? The Lassonde Curve is poorly named if that is the case.

Contrarian - ITV? Really? I don't know how you have the cheek to come and post here if that's one of your investment pearls.

Where to start with this nonsense. After last week's lame effort to now start claiming HZM is a bad investment because of global calamity is stretching it to the ridiculous.

Recession, yes possibly driven by a period of high inflation, but the defensive sector to occupy is raw materials and consumer commodities as they rise with inflation.
On the other hand we are still coming out of the pandemic, governments will spend on capital projects to kick start their economies. All capital projects imaginable will need nickel.

The Russia Ukraine thing will not go on indefinitely, certainly is less of an existential threat than it was a couple of weeks ago.
2 years, notably down from 31 months in the FS. HZM are now predicting a 7 month shorter build. That's because they have a published timeline, early works are in progress (water, access roads, soil surveys, bridges) before the major works start next month.

Oops... forgot to mention the offtake agreement based on LME market rate, a ten year deal with a global player.