Member Info for pickedpeck

Big smoke - yep we are getting close, the question is what to?
For what it’s worth there is no deal at 20, 22, or even 27p. I think the majority of large shareholders would reject it, rightly so.

I haven’t bought into Gem , been in and out of both them and PDL. I did put some money into MKA, and some more into HZM, I think the story on the latter is interesting.

Smokey - are you saying the question of the day is what is the question of the day - multichoice answers available?

Blimey JTD - that was the poor chap’s first AMER post, it’s one thing flaming me but surely ‘THE BIG MAN’ number 21 deserves the opportunity to explain his position. Perhaps being 21 and BIG has given him some unique insight into FSPs and company valuations that we could all learn from ?

:)

No - Someone bought, someone sold, same trade but via a MM middleman so looked like two trades.

Juxt,
It's possible but I would have thought the FSP terms would preclude going out of process and be designed to prevent a disorderly process emerging. I can't see ONGC being buyers, they are just too bureaucratic to make an open market acquisition in a foreign country. OXY I would think will be inside the FSP

There is the RNS as predicted. Not £1.5m, £376,000. The trades were back to back sell and buy, 3.54% of the company bought by MR OLEG SOLOSHCHANSKIY

Bunsen - some here have two extra, and some have two less zeroes on their investment, but it makes no difference as size is all relative and everyone is looking for a decent return regardless of their stake.

Juxt / Etc - A counter bid from someone outside the FSP is very unlikely as they would not have had access to the data room making a business case for investment much harder. It can happen on a tech stock or in an obvious business where the business proposition is easily understood, but here we are looking at seismic surveys and production data not in the public domain.

For timeline I am thinking a progress report before a 2.7, I do think it is likely to be this week or next though. Price continuing to sneak up slowly is a good sign

The 4.7m shares was a buy with two matched sells of 4.2 and 0.5m shares. The MM made 0.01 per share. Shows there is a big buyer and whoever was selling didn’t have enough to fill the order. Likely whoever bought the lump would like more, so very likely positive for the share price. We should see a holding RNS in the next few days to show who it is.

Not that hard - but almost impossible on AIM where it is all about capital growth rather than income based dividends. You could always buy Exxon / HSBC / RR. etc if you are after a dividend. The last few years have made even those blue chips a little unpredictable though

Eventually... it’s all about timing. If this clears out then some will go to PDL, some to GEM , more to HZM (I think Nickel has a big future) and maybe some to rare earths with MKA. I like companies that bring money out of the ground :)

Worth checking tomorrow morning though, just in case Santa gets the wrong holiday :)

Willec,

Whilst someone may eventually make the equivalent of 50p a share from AMER assets unfortunately it won’t be from this FSP. I think 22p is equally ridiculous though, truth will be about halfway between I still think, unless it gets competitive.

Market cap £60m , 1750 bulletin board posts today on EUA. That must be 10 posts per shareholder :)

Shows the capacity is there, the big days look like they were clearing backlog.

We used to discuss oil price on this board, even that has been somnolently hovering in the 60s for ages. It seems like an equilibrium has been established for now between production and demand. For the sale this makes returns predictable...

Anyone got the current OBA throughput from ‘that’ site? I lost the link, it would be interesting to see if it has breached 5,000 with 3rd party oil.

Bays used to get excited about Ecuador blocks, quite glad we missed that (possibly) literal bullet now, although the North seems more stable than Quito.

Operations and other updates have dropped off a cliff because of the FSP, would be lovely to get a random spudding RNS...

They say nature abhors a vacuum...

All gone very quiet here, the drop from above 100p to 62p must have been primarily driven by the wider decline in the diamond market. Anyone with any thoughts on what the update on the 5th will bring? Will this drop like PDL or hold up based on large diamond finds?

Good answer choppy. I don't trust the management either, but unfortunately that applies to pretty much ever company I invest in. Think the trick is to decide what they are lying about rather than whether or not they are telling the truth. I learned the hard way on that one, I got badly burned on asset values with SFI years ago and have treated every exec since with a degree of cynicism.

The point is to try and figure out what they are really up to, and what the pitfalls might be, and also what people may choose to believe.

Choppy - One of the nice features of a BB is that you can look right through a poster's history. In two years you haven't posted one positive comment about AMER, and haven't posted about another share since early last year. I accept there is an argument for balance, but you seem to have interpreted every single piece of news in the last two years negatively. If you're invested what is the purpose of coming onto the BB to be negative about your own investment? \

Just curious, even you would have to admit we are currently more than 80% up from the bottom. The perception of that is all about timing.

Just as a test - what would you say is the most positive thing to happen to the share in the last two years? For my vote it would be either Indico 1 hitting 200ft plus of oil , or the announcement of the FSP. Others may argue the commissioing of the OBA or the signing of the OXY deal. What's your view?

I'm a macro investor, I look at the fundamentals, value concept, and develop a value based hypothesis for investment. Amerisur became my largest investment because of the disparity between the potential asset value vs the market price creating a value opportunity to invest in that delta and wait for the outcome.

However... I recognise that a large number of investors (some claim 75%) do so on technical indicators, and many of the algo based bots trading on the market are also driven by sentiment indicators rather than fundamentals. Using chart information can help decide when to buy in and optimise an entry point. To be honest I am a bit cynical about it myself, but accept that its a religion with a number of followers that have an influence.

As such, the technical indicators for AMER have just switched over the last two weeks or so. One of the nice indicators to use is the EWMA, Exponential Weighted Moving Average. Inflexion points in EWMA that are sustained indicate a change in sentiment. The AMER EWMA had an inflexion on about the 11th, the date of the strategic review update, and its now been sustained on an upward trend for two weeks. If you use EWMA in conjunction with Bollinger bands you get a tool that can suggest the short term price target. This works best when EWMA moves away from the bottom Bollinger band then the upper band becomes the target price. The upper band is currently rapidly accelerating showing a possible snap in price.

Basically the announcement has had a sustained effect on sentiment demonstrated by the technical indicators. Accordingly the price may well shortly break the recent pattern of the slow rise and jump a couple of pence.

A ramper would say 'last chance to buy at this price', the cynic in me reckons this could hopefully be irrelevant by the 31st. Either way... looking at this stuff is better than watching the paint dry / grass grow / forecasting based on tea leaf formations.

I agree, no matter how much we pore over potential NAV and future income statements it all comes down to what the owners will take vs what the buyers will offer. The buyers will absolutely be interested in NAV because their models will be based on ROCE calculations, whilst the sellers may well be looking at that next house in Barbados / Grimsby depending on their investment levels.

I still think 35p, but it’s hard to argue against the current share price and lack of action.