Member Info for pickedpeck

Wish you are inadvertently highlighting an option I hadn't really considered, PAF exit through company sale. Now would be a really great time for a potential buyer to acquire them. The current share price under values the asset base considerably particularly considering the recovery in progress, that's the reasoning behind why I am invested here. On the back of earnings recovery and subsequent dividend escalation I expect to get to 15-17p reasonably quickly.

Having said that I believe most holders would right now be in favour of an offer 20% up from here around 15p a share, that would still be enormously cheap for a buyer able to consolidate assets and production.

The AngloGold deal with Harmony is pretty much bang on the PAF mkt cap at $300m, and "Harmony, backed by billionaire Patrice Motsepe’s African Rainbow Minerals, has been hunting for deals to boost declining reserves and grades at its South African mines" according to press reports.

Note the s on the end of deal...

Anyone think there will be anything unexpected in the results or is the value already baked into the price?

Tell them what, a proven resource, 200,000oz p.a. production? Multiple producing deep mines with tailings processing and tens of millions of tons at 8g/t + mineralisation?

Just saying the valuation of a company that explored, proved assets, built several mines, and pays a dividend is only just higher then the current price here.

DYOR obviously.

GGP £203m , PAF £239m , broadly equivalent mkt cap but very different positions.

When people are talking multi bagger and huge upside, its worth looking at the valuation and asset base of a company that is already producing.

I think the recent slight fall back in price looks like small investor boredom rather than anything fundamental. We're likely to get FY19 results in April which Will likely be the next trigger for change, If revenue is ahead and profit maintained in line with expectations then I would hope to see something of a boost to the price.

The last announcement did quote a drop in backlog, it would be good to land a few projects in between now and the results.

Rising production in H1 beating expectations
EPS up over 100% YoY for H1
Gold price up 25% in the last 9 months from a low around $1270 to just shy of $1600 today ($1581.30 as I write)
H2 additional production capacity coming on line for Q4 adding 15% or so to annual production 9Evander 8 shaft pillar project adds 30,000oz)
Full year production may come in at around 200,000oz , beating their previous 185,000oz forecast
Dividends very likely to rise sharply

Just bought some more, despite the rise over the last year there is a lot of room up for this.

Increasing production in H2 should see full year eps even higher, PE less than 6 :)

There are a lot of posters here that continue to focus on EV market growth. That's great if you're here for the Vermelho asset maturity window of 3-5 years from now, but shouldn't we be more focused on Araguaia? Forgetting about the EV market for a moment and just looking at stainless, the demand for stainless steel has grown 90% since 2010 and is projected to continue growing into the foreseeable future as applications transition from carbon steel to stainless. If stainless demand grows another 90% over the next ten years where will the metal come from?

Have a look at this :
http://www.worldstainless.org/Files/issf/non-image-files/PDF/ISSF_Stainless_Steel_in_Figures_2019_English_public_version.pdf

70 years of market growth at 5.84% compound! There also is a clear correlation between rising GDP per capita and demand for stainless steel, so demand in China and India is rising faster than historic figures would suggest.

I know its not as whizzy as EV, but for HZM rising long term stainless demand will likely drive the valuation for the next 3 years at least.

Given over half forecast production achieved in H1, when the additional Evander capacity of 30,000oz p.a. comes on line for Q4 of the FY shouldn't that add 7-8000 extra capacity in? If so shouldn't production guidance come in nearer 200,000oz?

Depending on the exceptional is not a strategy that will turn this business around, their (correct) focus on establishing an improved overall business performance is what matters. Project 2022 cost reduction and productivity gains are what will make a difference to 'business as usual' here, both of which are showing the first signs of net positive effect in this update. Whilst on the surface the update is flat, increased production, some recovery in Q3 pricing, and lowering costs going forwards clearly shows the green shoots of recovery. Debt was very marginally worse, but in comparison to where this was that in itself is progress, the first part of a turnaround is stopping things getting worse.

Finding big rocks is nice, but this is a bigger enterprise than that and needs to operate as such.

I agree, great turnaround story, increasing production on a like for like basis particularly around tailings processing as promised, but also significantly reducing debt. Add on the additional production coming online by the end of the financial year and this looks pretty rosy at the moment. Analyst commentary is bound to follow, I wouldn't be surprised to see some strong buy recommendations over the next few weeks.

Nearly 8.4% now for PIC according to the RNS today. It's quite surprising this has not affected the share price more, but I guess we will see what's what at the interim update. POG and solid operational performance are not priced in at the moment.

The bonus scheme for 2020 is interesting, Duffy's bonus biased towards achieving FCF! :::

Maximum opportunity for FY 2020 of 150% of salary.
The Committee has reviewed the annual bonus targets for FY 2020 to ensure that they are aligned
to our strategic priorities. The bonus for FY 2020 will be linked to:

free cashflow generation (net of debt obligations) (40%);

revenue (20%);

cost and capital management (20%); and

HSE and SED objectives (20%).

Annual bonus will be subject to a clawback provision, which may apply for up to two years
following the end of the performance period in the event of serious misconduct or a material error
in the calculation of the bonus outcome.

Should have looked harder... Duffy's salary is:

With effect from 1 July 2019, Executive Director base annual salaries were as follows:
Richard Duffy – £370,800 (prior year comparison not applicable)

Lose 45% as tax you get £209k net, so £50k is a quarter or so of his net income.

Even a CEO has financial commitments to meet, it's unrealistic to expect purchases every few months. I couldn't find Duffy's current salary information but in 2018 Johan Dippenaar’s compensation package looked like...

'At the time of writing our data says that Petra Diamonds Limited ... is paying total annual CEO compensation of US$551k. (This is based on the year to 2018). We think total compensation is more important but we note that the CEO salary is lower, at US$371k.'

The compensation package will include taxable benefits, pension allowance, health plan, car etc.

Assuming Duffy's salary is somewhere near the indicated JD salary of $371k, or £280k - ish , with about 45% tax burden nets him £155k a year net income. Committing £50k of that, or about a third of his annual net income, is ballsy enough. Even if its just for order of magnitude reference to show what a £50k purchase means, its not small change for someone who despite the senior role is still working for a living.

Of course he will likely have other income sources or access to other funds, but C level people are not always gazillionaires with bottomless investing pockets, and expecting continual purchases is a mistake.

This time last year (16th) CINE released a full year trading statement summarising the actual performance achieved. There is good reason to think that they may do the same or similar this year particularly as December was likely a 'make or break' month for the second half with Star Wars IX having a big influence on H2 numbers.

The negative press around Star Wars IX may be accounting for some or all of the retrenchment here, but despite the luke (!!) warm reviews and overall it did make a front loaded $1Bn box office in the four weeks since release, a nice hefty portion of which would have gone into CINE's books.

To be fair Duffy bought 240,000 in June. Even perceived wealthy C level types don't necessarily have endless cash washing around to buy their own company shares, committing £50k six months ago at 21p a share showed some confidence in the business at a much higher share price than here.

The lower expected capex at $29m forecast for 2020 and flat cash at mine should show some debt pay down progress being made in H1. No contra production indications, and currency variation should be helping too. As soon as PDL starts to crawl out from the debt pile and the shadow of business continuity risk it implies this will recover strongly. Or not. We'll know in a fortnight, but the shorters bailing suggests a positive outcome likely.

The point is about getting legs back. PDL just four years ago generated more annual profit than the current market cap, against a lower revenue figure. Getting legs back doesn't look like a quarter penny rise with the share price still in single digit pence.

Having said that any kind of green recovery shoots in the Jan update could create a strong upward move, to SteveE60's point if they are not going bust (debt has come down, and EBITA recovered) then this may increase a long way over the next few years.

Hello Smokey.

Hardly got her legs back, way back when in 2014 this would occasionally move up 10p + a day. The departure of the shorters is big news though, seems likely to be on the way to some sort of recovery but the 27th will really be the indicator.

For example, spread is showing as 6.76% right now, 562-600 , and only 5 trades by lunch time on a Monday! Am I missing something?