Member Info for pickedpeck

BBN - I think they are discounting some or all of the initial 28 day period as they have already had an exemption. Also as I understand it formal closure may come after effective closure, ie the vote has been taken and offer accepted.

CD - bids will be the next 30 days, forget Indico 2 being a part of the process in any meaningful way. Concluding the deal in Q4 means you back count from the end, the voting process, the financial transaction with the share acquisition and cancellation, takes 6-8 weeks. We only have 11 weeks to the end of Q4, so either the bid process is October or the guidance is wrong which I am assuming is not the case.
So bids on the table now please... I suspect by halloween, at the latest bonfire night, we will know what's on offer.

It's a good point Taverham. Mizman - is that short for miserable man? Talk about clinging to a possible negative, have you got a short spread bet here by any chance? Time to close it if you have.

Conclude sale in Q4, that likely means bids this month, vote next month, transaction conplete December just in time for the office Xmas party.

A full sale will almost certainly include all share options not just Dec.
The interesting thing is the RNS sounds a little bit 'frustrated' with bidders. Sounds like they have had cherry picking offers put in and are now saying buy the lot or sod off.
Wonder what the market reaction will be? 20p open or muted through lack of visibility?

Smokey - I bet PDL falls today on people transferring from there to here :)

Ongc are still waiting for the results of the tender for someone to fill out the expression of interest form for them before deciding what to do next. I don't think they were ever likely to bid.
OXY have always been the front runner, but it sounds like there are at least several others who are interested.

Not at all, i tried to put some more money in yesterday but only had small change free. Its a bit of a wishy washy RNS, I would have hoped for a calendar for the bid process.

Well, clears up the nature of the sale anyway. Maybe they are reading the boards :)
Whole share capital means they have a buyer likely to go for the whole shebang

Sadly the answer is ... it depends on the structure and nature of the deal done.

If the offer is in £ for the listed shares then the shareholders bear any currency risk in accepting the offer. The voting process takes a few weeks, a couple of weeks later you should receive the cash. 1-2 months post offer, although the share price will fix somewhere near the offer price almost immediately and you would be free to sell your shares. Obviously should you do so you would miss out on any potential counter offer should one come out.
However if (as is entirely possible) the offer is for the sale of one or more subsidiary companies (assets) in Colombia and the bid is in $ then the value of the bid increases should the £ go down, but there is no guarantee what % shareholders will get to see in this type of transaction through taxation and other disbursements. The AIM listing would then essentially become a cash rich shell with its cash held in dollars. The shell would presumably be quickly or immediately dissolved through a shareholder vote and assets returned to shareholders via a dividend. That would take a little bit longer, 2-3 months.

I would rather it is a share price offer rather than an asset sale even though it carries more currency risk.

Nope unfortunately by training I am a scientist, a physicist in fact, and have worked as a professional mathematical modeller and keep current with science through professional body memberships and journal subscriptions. I am the very definition of a sceptical scientist, just a professional one.
FYI I've worked in oil and gas, nuclear, marine, aerospace, life sciences and the intelligence services and have used data - you know measured stuff - to do things, like save lives through intercepting terrorist attacks to preventing industrial accidents, to optimising the PKPD dynamic modelling of the human body. Data, facts, the modelling, simulation, and utilisation of the outcomes spans all those industries.

What I generally hear as a sceptic is that 97% of people qualified to have a valid opinion lean one way, 3% lean either to no opinion or the other way. As a good scientist that means I accept that its absolutely possible that the 97% are wrong and the 3 % are right, but it is not very likely given the sample size is huge. Imagine the Brexit vote was that clear and how easy it would have been to get through the process if it was. Another example of statistcal relevance is that a 100% effective cure for a disease (like the Hep C treatments we recently developed) are only ever qualified to 95% because 5% of people don't believe they will work, believe they will have some adverse affect and flush them, and end up subsequently dying of the disease. What does it tell you the percentage that disagrees is lower than that?

Mizman - What qualifies you to have an opinion? Got a science degree of any description? Perhaps you are a climatologist and understand the interaction of sunlight with atmospheric gases? Perhaps you've developed a new version of the Lorenz atmospheric models that shows global warming is down to all the hot air spoken on bulletin boards?
Or is your qualification a brownie badge in reading made up nonsense which has been posted on the web (making it true) by people with similar qualifications to your own?

I suppose as a species we are prone to believing fairy stories and rumours, its how most religions started after all. Perhaps what we are seeing is the emergence of a new religious cult - the Misinformationists - driven by not believing anything produced by actual science or real research, instead spreading ever wilder conspiracy theories amongst themselves via twitter to the point where nothing is true and everyone is out to get them. The chief wombat of which might have inadvertently been able to get himself elected and put in charge reinforcing the misinformationists view that everything is fake, especially the tan.

Seance - Apart from it not being an element small amounts don't mean they can't have a big effect. 3000kg of some botulinum toxins, three tons, or about the weight of one Ford F-250 pick up truck, is enough to kill every human on the planet for example. Half a millionth of a gram is fatal to a human. Science tells us that. You could choose not to believe in the science and risk having some on your toast, as you wisely said how can so little - you wouldn't be able to see it even with a toy microscope - have an effect like that?

Regardless, AMER misinformation is also rife. There's a deal, the price will be x, the timeline is extended, bob the doorman told me his aunt's sister's cousin's friend who is sleeping with the chef at the Bogota pizza takeaway - the one where the boys are ordering their all night snacks from - says the deal will close tomorrow as they went for meat feasts rather than margaritas last night.

We are still in the FSP it won't go on forever, at some point either there will be a decent or an indecent offer. I don't believe there is any chance of no action - carry on. All this to come to nought? I think the potential shareholder revolt alone will force some sort of deal, although that would be rational, and rationalism, determinism, is counter the the misinformationists and might not win the day.

Mizman - and the earth is flat because there is a giant conspiracy to fool us into believing the crazy idea that its round.
What has actually happened is the democratisation of access to data has allowed the deliberately misleading interpretation of it by unqualified and uninformed nouveau conspiratorial experts. That is you can now choose to believe one of multiple alternative truths on almost any topic, and respect for those that have spent decades qualifying in that field has diminished to almost nil.
Personally I would trust a professional climatologist to tell me about what is going on with the climate on the basis that they might actually understand how it works. Its a bit like trusting a neurosurgeon to operate on your brain rather than leaving it to the guy you were talking to about headaches in the pub last night.
Amongst actual climatologists there appears to be very little disagreement about what's going on.

The link below is from a US government controlled agency involved in dozens of conspiracies - NASA - about the situation.

https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

Of course you could actually know more than any climatologist, NASA, the United Nations, the thousands of peer reviewed published journal articles leading to the scientific consensus, and an agency working for the most carbon dirty government in the world. Faking all that with so many educated independent communicators involved, really?

Personally this is my last oil investment, I think the writing is effectively on the wall for a rapid reduction in carbon dependency whether you agree with it or not.

I agree that the shares have not vested yet, but even for the LTIP to be transferable is odd. I tried researching transferable LTIP options but couldn't find another example. LTIPs are granted to an individual and the profit on them is normally taken as taxable income rather than under CGT rules. I couldn't see another example of LTIP moving from an individual to a company, nor an LTIP transferring before vesting conditions have been met. You can normally choose when to vest the LTIP once the conditions have been met so not surprising they haven't vested.

LTIPs are complicated, I have one myself that you need a PhD to understand the vesting rules, more 'ifs' than you can shake a stick at.
It appears JWs LTIPS vesting rules have the condition of compound gains. I believe, and bear with as this may be wrong, that in order for the LTIPS to be transferable the same conditions have to be met just as if they were vesting. I was looking for another example of an LTIP transfer and the only ones I could find were where the vesting conditions had been met. If that's right then implicitly the performance conditions for vesting have been met. The only other explanation is some sort of special dispensation, I see no mention of that. Surely if the conditions have been met, then a deal is done and we should have had that announcement first.

Anyone else seen an LTIP transfer, maybe I am missing something? Any tax experts out there, might be handy as I could transfer my own to my own holding company :)

He is not transferring stock, he has transferred his LTIP (Long Term Incentive Plan) options from himself personally to a company (Tracarta). Most buyers honour LTIP options as unissued capital in an acquisition. By transferring them to a company he is sheltering them from high personal rate taxation on the lump sum. To be worth doing there has to be a noticeable gain on the stock valuation.

Personally I think this implies the final sale price is likely to generate JW a significant lump sum gain, and given some of his options are marginal against the current price then this implies the sale price will be noticeably higher.

I am a bit surprised he is allowed to do this, he must have tax residency somewhere not in the UK as I would have though HMRC might not look on this kind of dodgems favourably otherwise.

Just me then - still, nice subtle message wrapped in. Wonder what that is the Indian chap is walking down, looks to big for E2029. It does look like an Estrella uniform he has on though.

Could be just me imagining this but the background images on the Amerisur website have changed. The first one is now what looks like an aerial shot of Bogota , the second shows trucks (3rd party oil?) offloading at platanillo / OBA terminal, the cynic in me thinks the chap in the third one looks Indian, the fourth looks like the export pumps and fifth the OBA...

I think someone is having a laugh with the pictures!

It’s worth reading a guide to the process , this one is good: https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk/
Basically once an offer is recommended by the board shareholders will get asked to vote on the offer, if 90% of the votes are secured then the offer becomes mandatory and minority shareholders are forced to sell.

The real effect of all this on the share price will likely be the share price will adjust to near (usually just below) the offer price as soon as the announcement is made in the expectation that the offer will be accepted. The slight discount will apply because it is still possible for the deal not to go through. At that stage it is possible that an aggressive counter offer could come in higher than the recommended offer, then it all gets fun.

CYB - timely reminder. Peak OBA flow in September being well over 5,000 bopd is interesting, presumably third party oil flowing at last rather than an extra 1,000 barrels from Platanillo but hard to say.

Reserves update last week was a neutral statement but essential in the sales process as preemptive due diligence.

I think this focus on ONGC is misleading, there is more chance of me winning the Euro millions and putting in a bid than ONGC moving fast enough to buy AMER. Their corporate functions make their operations look like lightning, they can only capture acquisitions that are already somnolent. They make a slug striking at a lettuce leaf look sudden. I don't think they are cunning enough to be playing a game for CPO-5, I think it is more likely an AMER bidder may be trying to roll in the other 70% or at least operatorship into the deal.

Right now I am tempted to add some more, i think inside a month we will have some sort of deal on the table. I am a little surprised it has taken this long, but patience in this case is definitely a virtue. Game almost over now

I am hoping 7p is a bottom, I thought about a bit before the results but given the number of shorts I thought it would drop no matter what the results were like.

I bought two blocks @ 7.4 and 7.0p... Quite amused you sold them me smokey :)