Member Info for pickedpeck

This is a weird stock. Spread is huge and opened up on a daily basis to discourage trading it seems, hence no trading volume on a day to day basis punctuated by bursts of back to back deals.

You would think this was an illiquid £5m AIM stock not a £0.5Bn company.

The top 20 owners have only 48% of the stock suggesting a lot of small holders with the other half, but why so little trading?

Just in case anyone else owns this on LSE, anyone got any thoughts on the large trades yesterday followed by a 5% jump today?

07-Jan-20 13:24:30 585.00 214,908 Sell* 574.00 598.00 1m O
07-Jan-20 13:23:58 585.00 134,992 Sell* 574.00 598.00 789.70k O
07-Jan-20 13:23:42 585.00 77,287 Sell* 574.00 598.00 452.13k O
07-Jan-20 13:02:30 585.00 50,000 Sell* 574.00 598.00 292.50k O
07-Jan-20 13:01:53 585.00 50,000 Sell* 574.00 598.00 292.50k O
07-Jan-20 12:35:50 585.00 100,000 Sell* 574.00 598.00 585.00k O

Near £3m traded in half an hour.

On top of that, results due in a few weeks, the H1 looked very good on a YoY basis and had some additional positivity looking at H2. Recent broker consensus is 25% up from here, looking at the growth rate that may be a little conservative.

Just topped up a bit, happy to buy at 3.43 , the seller doesn’t in any way affect the fundamentals of the investment here. Sellers like this spook the nervous, but if you are brave you pay your money and take your chances on these dips. I see it as a discount rather than a fall :)

The biggish (84762) buy this morning was me, no agenda other than a long term hold.

Luke2 - It was amusing because 3.5m of the buys were me and I definitely had no insider knowledge of an irrelevant RNS. I've bought to hold, I am expecting a price in the region of 8-10p post financing Araguaia some time in 2020, and 10-14p post Vermelho financing which is when I will be looking to exit. I've got a decision to make on whether I go up to 5 or stick at 3.5, it depends on the exit from a couple of other plays over the next month or so.

guys - I have read some waffle on these boards in my time but the degree of speculative nonsense about the large buys this week takes some beating. Talk about mad conspiracy theories!

The real blame here lies with Michinoko , they are the ones with the real power. I don't have a lot of sympathy for the BoD, but ultimately Michinoko as the major share holder must have had an absolutely massive influence on this deal. If they decided they wanted out at any price, which seems likely, then this was at best a fire sale.

I'm gone too. HZM, RAI, PAF, PDL ... no oilers any more. The heart of the market just isn't in it.

Bought a few over the last few days. I've been in and out a while here but looking at this as a longer term volume hold now, at least until post Vermelho financing. I guess it helped soak up the float a little anyway.

Keep calm and carry on.

£59m NAV with no debt at last results, single digit PE ratio, backlog for next year already at last year's revenue implying 20-30% growth. What's not to like?

550 target more likely, sailed past 450 now and still cheap.

Investec form 8.3s seem to indicate they have been tasked to buy up shares from the open market and sell them on at a profit of 0.01p per share to very likely GEO. Over the last week or so they have scooped up about 25m shares this way, presumably from investors cashing in.

Unless a counter bid emerges in the next few days the only reason to stay will be the 3% premium for the final sale price versus the current open market.

Maybe its appropriate to go out as a damp squib rather than a big bang.

Surprisingly bad offer, Geopark plainly aided by ONGC in suppressing value. I think worst case in my view was 20% higher than here, to come in at current market value and within the 12 month trading range is shockingly sh*te. This must be driven by Michinoko, JW comments on the deal were half hearted at best, I suspect arm twisted to accept the deal.

I think it is possible there may be a counter offer at this level, are M&P really going to be put off by less than 2p a share? 75% of shareholders have not yet voted for this deal, I won't be voting for it with my 0.2%!

Let hostilities commence. Its not over until the vote is in.

Not just the UT. Trades at 11:57 18.0p buy, 12:02 18.90p

Volatility today is interesting, the price swung 1p on near no volume in 5 minutes at around noon. Not exactly a pure signal, but suggests something unusual is perhaps occurring.

The reality is there is no published fixed timeline to this as they have had an exemption granted. I have been involved with M&A that took as little as six weeks from start to finish, and also seen one that ran for nine months and failed to conclude in a sale. The frustrating thing here is we are not party to the detail of the process which is allowing uncertainty and doubt to creep in. A simple RNS stating bids have been received and are under review would help, but I think at that point shareholders would be asking to see the bids and that may derail the FSP... so here we are being patient.

I have no idea what RBC are basing their note on, but a cynic might suggest one of the buyers has paid them a fee for the coverage in a not dissimilar way to Stifel being paid by Amerisur. Either way it doesn't look a sensible valuation to me, but then I have skin in the game too. The same cynic might also use the presence of some posters on this and other BBs as an indicator of some short term downward pressure. It doesn't need to be done as a short, spread bets can be just as effective

It's more the looool . How out can you be?

I filled my boots, pockets, spare buckets, stuffed the mattress and then found some extra space at the back of the cupboard for an average price of 13.8p. I have a few million shares as a result. I missed timing the bottom I agree, oops, oh well. But I did have to buy in quite a few transactions so some were as low as 11p. I bought more at 19p too if it helps anyone feel any better.

I would actually be satisfied with 22p. I would be happy with 27p, I'd be very happy with 32p, and delighted at anything over 37p (drinks on me at that level or above). I am actually pretty content at 19p with a 38.5% average gain so far. Having said that I am a Johnny come lately and have only been invested heavily here in the last 18 months, others will have been here longer and / or have higher averages, and newcomers will (hopefully) find it hard to buy in lower than today. 22p is still a 15% gain from today though, anything higher is all upside.

25p is a reasonable absolute base for Michinoko or the others, I can't see them willingly taking a loss considering the overall asset progress made. The day to day market price for the free float of shares is pretty much irrelevant to what you could actually acquire the company for, this nonsense about 'the market' valuing the company at 12p a share is rubbish. Thats the spot price of the free float, any serious attempt to buy the company off the major investors would require a much higher price.

Accuweather has thunderstorms forecast for Puerto Putumayo this evening. Then again this is the tropics and talking about the weather is way less interesting than in temperate zones, but still more interesting than a lot of the waffle here today.

It is quite frustrating the lack of communication from the company is allowing this kind of vacuous conversation.

Anyone know why LSE is showing 1 more RNS for today than there has actually been? Showing 4 on the link and there have only been three, it has been +1 all day so far. I wonder if it is related to a delayed announcement :), or just a software glitch.

Getting really impatient now, that whole 'a watched kettle never boils' thing can sod off.

To be fair they made 0.52 a share, on 50,000 shares short that's £260... Less fees. I wonder if all those BB posts about no deal and 22p were worth it, there must be an easier way to make money!

I’m struggling to make this any clearer. You’ve multiplied the trades and got the sums wrong through reading the trade data in LSE incorrectly. Even the RNS says the guy acquired 3.54% , not 7.08% or 14.16%. I’m presuming with 45k posts you understand how a matched trade(s) via a market maker works?

There is no RNS for the sale so presumably it was one of the bigger holders that didn’t cross a threshold down with the sale, morningstar will tell us in a few weeks.