Member Info for pickedpeck

If by magic the company value translated as NPV of the projects less the capital required, then the NPV is about $2.9Bn , capital required is ~ $1.3Bn , net $1.6Bn , about £1.4Bn . You could argue that the NPV includes capital costs and contingencies, you could also argue the NPV up a few notches based on the nickel price upside forecasts.

That's translates as a share price of almost 100p. There will be dilution in terms of rights issues, maybe by 1/3rd . You'd also have to realise the full NPV (2025 maybe?) and the market will obviously discount. However it is a long way from 3.5p by the time both mines would be producing. Certainly well over 50p per share.

That valuation is why most would suggest this will be sold as a whole company long before 2025.

Lazydave... DYOR :)

Lots of information on what they could be worth. Based on Onca Puma sale... or based on mine PFS ... or based on likely nickel price... . Anywhere from today's price to more than 10x today's price. I don't think they will get to 30p as they would be taken out by Glencore or Teck first, but they could definitely pass 10p on confirmed mine financing. That's possibly due this quarter, and leakage of it may account for the current rise, although seems more likely an ii taking a stake.

We were in the 9p range at the start of April, now heading for 2x rise in a month. I see this going into the mid 20s over the next month, the five year chart shows this got to around 23p with lower production, higher costs, stronger Rand, and lower gold price than today.

Green new deal I believe will further incentivize Generate on Demand Photo Voltaic and associated battery home gen sets. Battery demand will not be just vehicles but also a huge bow wave of high capacity home batteries.

I've just had a quote for full renewable power for my house. Air Source heat exchangers powered by PV cells and a battery set. £20k outlay gets me zero emissions and zero run cost for hot water, heating, and electric power, plus an income from excess power sold to the grid and RHI (renewable heat incentive) payments of just under £2k a year. Over seven years the system fully pays for itself just on the income, and I also get free heat and power, normally costing around £5k a year. Basically I will be £30-£45k in credit from installing this system, the ultimate environmentally friendly no brainer.

As a result I am just about to personally purchase in the region of 20-30kg of nickel.

That's before I start thinking about using my PV battery set to charge an electric vehicle.

Wayne Nicoletto - In his past career Mr. Nicoletto was Vice President-Operations for Boroo Gold Co. Ltd. and General Manager-LEFA SMD Operations at Crew Gold Corp.

Boroo Gold Mine is an open-pit gold mining site in Mongolia located about 110 km (70 mi) west-northwest of the capital Ulaanbaatar in Bayangol and Mandal sums (districts) of Selenge Province in northern Mongolia. Gatsuurt Gold Mine is 35 E from Boroo Gold Mine.

Boroo was owned by the Canadian mining company, Centerra Gold Inc. It began commercial production in March 2004 and produced more than 1.5 million ounces (46 tons) of gold through the end of 2010. The Boroo mine was the first hard-rock gold mine established in Mongolia and the largest foreign investment in the country at the time it began production. Boroo is estimated to have increased the entire country's GDP by 5-7%.

The full exec and management team need to be concentrated on here, there is way too much talk about this being a one Harry band.

The other key players worth having a look at are:

Richard L. Robinson, NED
John Edward Leach, Finance Director
David John Charles Munro, Head of Operations
Aristidis Eleftherios Anagnostaras-Adams , Exec Chairman
Wayne Nicoletto, MD Ethiopia
Norman Arthur Ling , NED
Eddy Solbrandt, Head of Systems
Mark Tyler, NED
Kedebe Belete, Country Manager Ethiopia
Brian Hosking, Head of Planning
Jeff Rayner, Adviser - Exploration Strategy

Of those Wayne Nicoletto is probably the one we need to be paying most attention to. He is the guy that will actually drive the Ethiopia start up, and looks to have done similar programs previously.

On the other hand... If you had invested in mid March you would have already more or less doubled your money here, and there is every chance of adding 50% in relatively short term from here based on share price volatility history.

You can be miserable about Harry or the company, or think that those assets may come phenomenally good, each to their own. Regardless of the long term outcome seeing KEFI as a trading stock presenting multi bag opportunity is real enough.

Times are really hard if someone is putting their last quid into the market and depending on the return on investment. If their investment 3 bags they might have enough for a pint should the pubs open again sometime soon.
I wonder if we have come up on a school's investment club and this is home schooling pocket money being put in?

Whats with all the sub £10 trades? All Os , who is buying hundreds of shares of a 1p share?

Worldometer has the population at 114m , median age is just 19.5 , no that's not a typo. Not a lot of old people, care homes, diabetics, COPD in Ethiopia.

5% plus spread here is discouraging any buyers. Surface mining of the tailings will still be producing a decent number of ounces, gold price just under $1700 but seems to have bounced off the $1700+ levels last week. Its stalled for now, probably a good thing for the moment but can only see it going one way as there will be a lot of uncertainty in stock markets for a while.

Surprising then PAF hasn't made more gains, seems a great bet at the moment.

26% revenue growth, 35% increase in PBT, 18% increase in order backlog.

(All numbers in USD)

2019 2018

Revenue

69,064 54,805 (26% increase)

Underlying profit

13,259 12,761 (4% increase)

Profit before tax

13,259 9,827 (35% increase)

Basic EPS (cents)

7.4 6.3

Net Cash (end of period)

21,393 27,804 (decrease but increase in NAV)

Dividend per share (recommended)

1.25p 1.0p (25% increase)


Order Book

141.0 119.2 (18% increase)

RA International Group PLC

("RA International" or the "Company" and, together with its subsidiaries, "the Group")

Results for the year ended 31 December 2019



A year of strong progress



RA International Group PLC (AIM: RAI), a leading provider of services to remote and challenging locations around the world, is pleased to announce its results for the year ended 31 December 2019.












2019


2018










USD'000


USD'000













Restated1















Revenue








69,064


54,805

Underlying profit2








13,259


12,761

Profit before tax








13,259


9,827

Basic EPS (cents)








7.4


6.3

Net Cash (end of period)3








21,393


27,804















Dividend per share (recommended)








1.25p


1.0p



















Financial highlights

· Full year revenue increased 26% to USD 69.1m (2018: USD 54.8m), of which USD 46.0m was delivered in H2 (H2 2018: 28.7m).

· Underlying profit increased 4% to USD 13.3m (2018: USD 12.8m) of which USD 10.7m was earned in H2 2019 (2018: USD 5.5m). Exceptional costs relating to the Company's 2018 Admission to AIM make up the prior year differential in underlying profit and profit before tax.

· Profit before tax of USD 13.3m (2018: USD 9.8m) increased by 35% and was in line with expectations.

· Net cash at 31 December 2019 of USD 21.4m (2018: USD 27.8m). The decrease was primarily due to increased trade receivables and accrued revenue at year end resulting from an extremely active November and December.

· Proposed final full year dividend of 1.25p per share (2018: 1.0p per share).



Operational highlights

· Awarded new contracts, uplifts and extensions to existing contracts of USD 90.9m during 2019
(2018: USD 62.0m).

· Order book of USD 141.0m (2018: USD 119.2m) at year end, up 18% from 2018 year end.

· Further diversification of client base with revenue from government and commercial customers making up 44% in 2019 (2018: 38%).

· Strong increase in IFM services contracts to USD 28.6m (2018: USD 23.1m) of which USD 10.4m was high value hospitality service contracts (2018: USD 6.0m).

· Significantly expanded operations in South Sudan and Mozambique and entered Denmark and Libya executing projects in 11 countries during the year (2018: 9 countries).

· Further streamlined the project delivery function through the implementation of a group-wide Management System (RAMS) and by adding the supply chain team to the Project Management Office.

There is a fair bit of nonsense around on cash burn rates. The rate of burn can vary from one month to the next especially when considering initiating large construction projects. At some future point they may need to get through $20m a month, but right now the key bits from the balance sheet are:
Cash in hand : £17.8m
Total equity and liabilities : £59,459,854
Total comprehensive income for the year attributable to owners of the parent : (£5,798,153)

If nothing changed they would use the cash up over nearer three years than two, but spend rate is accelerating as expected. Even with all the cash gone out the door the net assets would still be valued on the balance sheet at £42m.

All of which is irrelevant. The real business here will only be revealed when (not if) the full finance package is known for both prospects (not mines - yet). Holders are all betting, me included, on the massive understatement of the value of the assets on the balance sheet. That's the reason why the auditors had to write war and peace about valuation methodology in the results to justify holding the values down. Vermelho is at £6.7m on the balance sheet FFS... anyone really believe that's all its worth post PFS? Operationalised the value could add two zeros to that figure.

These books are actually better than I had thought we were going to get. Finance delay or not, this is a solid asset with enough cash to get to a finance deal or acquisition, whichever comes first.

I get the feeling that RAI are exactly the type of company that will receive an enhanced level of activity because of the pandemic rather than be adversely effected. They are the very definition of an essential service.

Wasa - I think if the pandemic comes to an end a lot of shares will get marked up in the same way that many have been marked down. I don't believe trading and volumes of shares being traded have driven the prices down. That being said no one really knows what the next normal will look like.

Personally I suspect that massive spending by government will be necessary to restart the global economies. At a macro level it would be logical to assume as some have suggested a kind of 'green new deal' rather than choosing the revitalization of the carbon economy. That can only be good for HZM asset valuations in the long term, but it is not without tangential risks.

It is possible there will be a wave of new nationalism, some examples of protectionist behaviour are already surfacing and the tensions between rival economies may get a lot worse in the aftermath. (Russia vs Saudi, vs everyone else, US vs China, UK vs EU etc). If that is the case then global trade will inevitably be badly affected and we will be looking back at the globalised world economy PV (pre virus) as a golden age of trade and wealth. What Brazil's attitude to foreign owned mining companies in that environment will be is very hard to predict. Will they encourage inward investment or will they put the border fences up and grab national assets in order to rebuild a damaged economy? A lot is unpredictable.

I'm betting (and it is a bet) that the work in clinical research for mitigations and vaccines will bear fruit quick enough that the new normal will have a chance of resembling the old normal rather than being a post apocalypse reset.

Wasa... The RNS on the 17th said 'On the ground in Brazil, our team is well prepared to continue their work while at the same time ensuring the safety of those in our employ as a top priority'

That implies no change in planned program activity so far. Has there been anything to say construction has been delayed or disrupted? I think we have been assuming there is but maybe as the RNS says that's not so.

Bearing in mind HZM's operation is in a fairly remote part of Brazil away from the major cities, how much disruption do we think there has been so far considering Bolsonaro's stance on Covid19? Its not clear to me that HZM have made an all stop statement like miner's in SA or Aus for example.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/27/822440615/supporters-of-brazils-bolsonaro-call-for-protests-against-coronavirus-lockdown?t=1585650479644

Paid in dollars, international agency contracts unlikely to be adversely affected by CV19, dividend...
Good opportunity to buy in here.