Member Info for PI_Winner

There is lots of numbers be banded around here which is fine PI's are entitled to their opinion. However some of the numbers mentioned make zero sense and are not informed.

If you focus on the fundamentals of THG, there is zero doubt by anybody I do not think that THG is significantly undervalued, that is pretty obvious. There have been a host of vultures swarming around since IPO. That is NOT usual, there is a reason for that as THG have a very attractive offering and capability in markets which have unprecedented future growth.

What are the FACTS - THG IPO'd in 2020 for £5.4 billion. There would have been considerable due diligence done at the time to validate a price that is FAIR VALUE for the markets. That was only a couple of years ago, however the economy is very different today in terms of inflation and interest rates and all FTSE's have been impacted by the economic downturn.

However if you watch Apollo interviews on Bloomberg etc (which is the key) as they are the PE bidding, they firmly believe that global economies will be relatively back to normal next year.....that is not far away.

We also know factually that THG rejected an offer of £1.70 only a couple of months ago. The economies globally have started to improve albeit slowly from the point of the last offer.

PI's should NOT compare what is happening with the Wood group either, that is a red herring. There is zero crossover in services, the markets they operate in, the capability, platforms etc. You might as well compare the purchase of Chelsea and Twitter.

If the economies globally are relatively normalised this time next year and margins for THG grow considerably what is THG going to be worth in 12 months, 3 years, 5 years with the right investment in markets which are NOT STAGNANT but growing exponentially. That must be factored in to any offer in order to be acceptable.

We do not have access to the information that Apollo will be reviewing but my opinion is that there is no way Apollo will be making an OFFER LESS than £1.70, but I do not know what a FAIR OFFER is and what will be acceptable. Apollo will know this before making the proposal to THG.

We probably could not have a better PE in Apollo wanting to buy THG as they are a seriously player and if they want something they get it, they do not mess around, research their track record.

Wildtiger I wasted 2 mins of my life checking you out...it looks like you have been drinking too much Charlie Sheen Tigerblood. PI's should google Charlie Sheen Tigerblood if not aware.

Your very first post on THG was Monday telling PI's on here that you had sold.......many would not believe you but I do....and you are getting awarded a virtual medal for services to the PI community.

Then an hour later you tell PI's you opened a short position.....what a move!!

Then the next day you tell us you bought back in.....I am just about keeping up....

You then tell us the SP is going down.....and it goes up! Ah well you were close...

Then you disclose to PI's that your mates have telephone number bank accounts.....can you give us a clue who you hook up with on a regular basis is it Donald Trump, MM or Charlie Sheen??

You then tell us you work on M&A deals for the last 10 years with no evidence to back it up.....probably nobody believes you but I do.

Anyway if you can let me know where I can purchase some Charlie Sheen Tigerblood that would be great....as you are on another planet.

In order to be a FTSE listed company you unfortunately need to be in bed and sleeping with the 'city'. MM recent video post has made it clear that he does not want to be even in the same room or hotel as the 'city' squires. He has effectively called them the $cum of the earth and as a result there is no going back....he has decided to burn those bridges, hence THG must go private now. But he is not stupid, he has made an informed decision when to post the video to get some revenge and now he is ultimately working through the finer details with Apollo in terms of the make up of going private.

If you look at the psychology element of MM. He is an alpha male, he craves recognition, status and publicity. He had all that and more pre IPO. Post IPO his reputation has taken a hammering. This has undoubtedly impacted him materially. There are loads of podcasts out there you can watch about very successful entrepreneurs and what drives them and fulfils them. There is a famous saying of a 'poor man billionaire'. Meaning they have all the money in the world but what ultimately what makes them happy is recognition and status etc.....on their death bed an extra billion does not make them any happier.....they want fulfilment. That is what is driving the decision by MM ultimately he wants the love, recognition and status back.

The make up of any deal to go private. MM is a an alpha male and will never be a spare part. If he is not in control he will not be interested. It is better that he moves on to another venture and he knows it to acquire the recognition he is currently missing. So the deal will either have to mean he remains in control or Apollo are calling the shots......end of. THG is his baby but if he is sidelined it does not work and he moves on. Which makes the dynamics of the deal interesting.

Private Equity take a lazy, easy route at all times which is why they are soooo successful. Meaning they identify a strategic opportunity where they can see huge growth, acquire the capability, invest and then flip it in 5-10 years for i.e 5 times the price after somebody else previously spent 20 long hard years building it from scratch. Is it fair.....probably not, but the alternative does not work for PE's. i.e if they started from scratch and built the brands, platform, capability, customer base etc, they have missed the market opportunity and the time and cost taken is pointless. What PE are good at is taking very good capability in rapid growth markets and put the growth on steroids by investing heavily now and attaining the market gap/opportunity. So if Apollo can sell THG in 5-10 years for £20Bn by acquiring THG now and investing lets say £1Bn over 5 years, what is a fair price now.....you decide.

stockbrokerbelt.......It wasn't MM that pushed the button. If you read RNS regulatory rules due to press speculation, THG HAD to issue an RNS LEGALLY. THG legal team would have notified the executive & MM that they needed to issue an RNS.

In any acquisition there are tonnes of II's....it is the nature of being a listed company. You need to to do some research on acquisitions. It does not prevent of X number of deals done on the FTSE/NASDAQ etc on an annual basis.

You then say Apollo are messing THG about. That makes no sense again. You need to google Apollo and look at their acquisition portfolio. Why would Apollo spend money, resources and time on a proposal to acquire all shares to mess THG and themselves about......are Apollo doing it for the good of their health? Are Apollo a one and his dog operation?

Apollo have provided a proposal to THG....that is a FACT, that is not speculative. You need to read the RNS from Monday.

steveinhull you have displayed you lack of intelligence by referencing investors chronicle. If you have any clue what you are doing you need to upgrade your sources in terms of market research. Investors chronicle are one of the worst sources, their journalists are **** poor and have no credibility. They will alternative motives.

Washington Post have readership of circa 100million per month, they have great journalists and are very informed. Check out their article on THG.....they engage Apollo all the time as well as other relevant financial institutions in order to provide insightful articles, hence their huge readership, they are very respected.... their recent article has some big clues what is going to happen.

Hosai.....it will be interesting. Great entrepreneurs do sell at some point and move on to their next venture. i.e Elon Musk sold Paypal and moved on to bigger and better things. He will definitely sell Twitter and Tesla at some point etc etc and probably focus on AI and SpaceX in another 10 years.

MM is clearly done with the city....there is zero chance he would have released that video without being comfortable with where the deal discussions with Apollo are going. He has had that video sitting on his desktop from probably the start of Dec 2022 and has probably been wanting to post the video every hour of every day for the last 100+ days. MM is anything but stupid....he has made himself comfortable with whatever the breakdown of the deal will be when announced.

Anacottsteel1. At a high level what is happening now:-

A virtual data room is created and various THG documents are uploaded for Apollo to review. These include but not limited to:- contractual documentation with clients - focus will be key legal terms, value of contracts and term length. Key third party supplier agreements will be reviewed. Some contractual info will be redacted, but key info on contracts will be shared.
They will want detail on the availability and security of the platforms, datacentres info etc, cloud based info related to the key platforms.
They will want detail on the operating model (resources, entities, processes, governance etc)
Balance sheet detail (current margins, bps, etc.)

They will then work up a couple of models. 1 based on what they believe THG is worth today, 2 what they believe it could be worth in 5 years and 3. another for 10 years. Ultimately private equity will have an exit plan at 5 years and 10 years etc to sell for a big profit and how much they need to invest post deal to achieve their targets. This will drive ultimately the offer price.

There will be ongoing meetings with the executive to attain clarification on the documents shared. There will be discussions what happens with the executive members are they locked in for 12 months or do they want rid of the executive. The proposal states that they want to acquire all shares so that would include MM 25% etc.

There will be a team of at least 20 dedicated Apollo resources and probably a consultancy supporting working on the models.

From a standing start and with a big dedicated team you can easily perform all relevant due diligence in 3-4 weeks. THG will probably be using PWC at their end to support access to all relevant documentation.

The key thing is how much due diligence is already complete as we do not know when Apollo initially engaged THG and started in earnest the due diligence post proposal. Hence the Offer could drop at any point.

Great Thread 1pencil....thank you for the updates.

Wildtiger....that is the biggest pile of $hite I have ever heard regarding Apollo.

I have worked with Apollo previously.....you need to stop spreading bare faced lies. Google Apollo acquisitions and the balance sheets of the acquired companies.

The vast majority of growing companies carry debt as you invest in the capability of the services/products you MUPPET.

If you tell lies again you are getting reported and you will get banned.

Amers......the benefit I have over you is that I have worked on umpteen M&A deals in the last 20 years within financial services and have a pretty good idea how deals are done.

If you cannot pick up on the key signals out there I cannot help you..........lets see who is right and who is wrong regarding a deal.

You are comparing 'apples and oranges' smartpee.

The deal is done, not sure what other evidence you need......Monday's RNS, MM post and video, Washington Post article etc etc. The deal price for THG is pocket money for Apollo, google their status and deals they do on annual basis.

Anything that came before is irrelevant....this is the here and now....done deal.

Apollo have been in discussions with THG for a considerable period of time.

The 'cat was let out of the bag' due to RNS regulatory rules and having to respond to press speculation. Otherwise PI's would not have known until the deal was effectively done as per standard in terms of takeovers.

MM has gone rogue for good reason as the deal is as good as done. Always remember he lives and breathes THG, he adores his employees (who are all shareholders) and he would do absolutely nothing and I mean nothing that would impact them negatively regarding shares.

We do not have long to wait but it is a good opportunity for PI's to make some money who are not invested or want to top up before the inevitable in the days ahead.

GLA.

If ever shareholders needed confirmation that a deal will be done watch the video - Great news!

MM has gone completely rogue and the only way he has a licence to do that by the executive is that THG is going private.

His time is up in the city, he has no motivation to engage the city anymore......the golden share expiring means that he has no leverage anymore to say 'no' independently.....he clearly wants to move on and build another private start up.

Matt you have built a great business......as all great entrepreneurs do......take your cash and start again.......just make sure the accepted take over offer begins with a £2+.....all shareholders will be delighted.

Ignore the derampers.

The facts are that Apollo have put a proposal together to THG to acquire the company - FACT
Apollo would have spent considerable time, resources and costs to put the proposal together - FACT
Apollo are a colossal private equity company and have made a number of acquisitions already this year - FACT
The current economic environment and currency exchange rates are favourable for Apollo to strike now - FACT
Apollo have until the 15th May to make an OFFER -FACT
The Golden share lapses in Sept - FACT
Apollo do not play games, they will have been studying THG for a considerable period of time, will have forecast where they can take the company in the next 10 years and the growth/profit they can achieve - FACT

Based on the FACTS, Apollo will make an OFFER. Will the offer be £2+ ?......... it depends on where they envisage the company to be in 10 years in terms of 'whale' partnerships, growth in the key markets etc - can they make it a 10Bn - £20Bn company - they can probably based on the infrastructure, the platform, the brands, the customer base, warehouses capability, global reach etc it is all there for them. - They want the capability....watch this space.

I did get a warm fuzzy feeling from the presentation. The executive came across very well. My summary of the call:-

Record revenue for the year and market growth gains
As inflation falls - margins will increase across divisions and will reap benefits 9-12 months before retail competitors.
Great cash flow - cash in hand £470M and £170 undrawn - £640M in total
Number of material new partnerships announced in Q1
Positive free cash flow forecast for 2024
£120M EBITDA for 2023
16 Fulfilment centres across the globe
Reduced fulfilment costs by 120bps
THG Ingenuity - end to end e-commerce solution - major competitive advantage over rivals

To summarise THG have invested heavily in transformation of the platform, warehouses, restructure of divisions etc over the last 3 years in particular. They are now primed in the key markets to expand market share, increase margins (as inflation falls) and have positive free cashflow by 2024.

Definitely a very attractive proposition for Private Equity acquirers.

The FUTURE is bright.....The FUTURE is THG.....and shareholders will be the beneficiaries over the coming weeks in terms of OFFERS.

GLA.

To all investors.....ignore the derampers, they are CLUELESS!

Make no mistake Apollo will be making a bid, they have already made a high level proposal.....they understand the strong market position of THG, the platform functionality, the exceptional customer base, potential future revenue growth etc etc.

They will undoubtedly understand how much future growth there is in THG over the next 10 years in the right hands.

Focus on the FACTS and not nonsense from Derampers.......there will be an offer and then a subsequent offer to seal the deal.

DO NOT LOSE OUT.
GLA.

Why are you on here......have you got nothing else to do with your precious time??? No because you have no life!!

An M&A transaction is all about the FUTURE outlook of THG. Let me repeat that.....FUTURE, FUTURE, FUTURE OUTLOOK.

The vast majority of FTSE's carry debt....its the nature of a growing company....MUPPETS!! For instance Rolls Royce have circa £3.5bn of debt (could have listed 100's of FTSE companies)

Outlook
With the completion of the divisional reorganisation, and decisive cost reduction action undertaken, the Group enters 2023 with improving momentum to achieve substantial margin expansion. Earnings recovery is supported by continued operating leverage, reducing consumer price protection, and the full-year effect of operating efficiencies and cost savings arising from the divisional reorganisation.

Our vertically integrated model enhances our ability to react to periods of economic uncertainty, and the profit improvement initiatives undertaken as part of the strategic review give us added confidence in driving margin recovery in 2023 and beyond.

We are well capitalised to advance our strategy of building a strong, sustainable global platform supporting THG brands and Ingenuity clients, and we have outlined our core levers for driving margin accretion and positive free cash flow over the near-term.

We remain confident that our business is underpinned by strong investment and strategic growth plans which will drive long-term value for our shareholders.

RNS market laws state ''a company can also hold off if putting news out would prejudice its ‘legitimate interests’. However, it needs to ensure it has taken steps to keep the details confidential''.

The THG legal team would have made the call that an RNS needed to be issued given press speculation and could be no longer kept 'secret squirrel'.

The key words I have put in capital letters below from the RNS.

A non binding proposal is very different to making an offer in contractual law. i.e if you are buying a second handcar you need to look under the bonnet , test drive etc in order to make an offer. You do not make an offer based on a picture. Likewise Apollo will be now performing detailed due diligence in order to make an informed offer.

The results tomorrow and investment management meeting at 9am will help PI's understand what is potentially fair value for THG. My view is that offer would be £2+ pending results tomorrow.

THG are in receipt of a HIGHLY PRELIMINARY and NON-BINDING INDICATIVE PROPOSAL from Apollo Global Management Inc. ("Apollo") on behalf of certain of its affiliated funds, to ACQUIRE THE ENTIRE ISSUED and TO BE ISSUED share capital of THG (the "Proposal").

Apollo is required, by not later than 5.00 p.m. (London time) on 15 May 2023, to announce a firm intention to MAKE AN OFFER for THG in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code.

Shorts know as much as us.....if they do not have significant long positions they are $ucked. I have no sympathy for shorts......I hope they all get frazzled!