Member Info for PI_Winner

Good points savvyinvestor.

What baffles me on these boards is the level of ignorance of some on here, we will never know if they are invested or not, which is why I tend not to get involved in these forums too much. These forums do not make a jot of difference to the SP.....Facts, figures, fundamentals, sentiment and RNS's move the SP.

In terms of next steps:-

There will be a bid by JD.

The bid will be under £2 and more than £1 so lets call it £1+. In any deal both parties MUST feel as though they have won. JD gets a very very good deal and shareholders will be happy.

The bid will be made just prior to the deadline as he needs the time to work on how he structures the deal.

The jeopardy in bids comes from external parties when they are doing their due diligence and identify something material they were not aware of. JD knows the company better than anyone, but that is also a good benchmark for external parties and PI's that it is highly likely there will also be a bid from an external party.

GLA.

JD will 100% bid, there is no doubt in my mind. The vultures are swarming and he does not want them getting his 'baby' on the cheap. He will be spending a huge amount of time and money now with lawyers and finance partners drafting the detail of a bid......you do not do that if you are not making an offer.

In parallel it is 'squeaky bum time' for the hedge funds et al to show their hand and prepare a bid in the same timeframe.

PI's should keep a track on the Form 8's to understand the weird and the wonderful invested in Superdry and the percentage of the free float once all disclosed, this is important.

In terms of making a formal bid, it is all consuming to agree the commercial model with finance partners etc. JD will be making his bid JUST prior to deadline, he will use all time available (and will need it to get the optimum commercial model devised).

If PI's are unsure on the flightpath and they are in profit, then I would recommend they exit. You should be committed to your investments based on your research. If you are not committed and unsure then you are in the wrong game as I note some doubters on here.

GLA

As I mentioned a bid is made based on all key success criteria including IP, Brand, assets, liabilities etc. 'in the round' is the reference.

As PI's all we can do is drain all good sources of info for facts, figures and fundamentals to try to allow us to compete on a level playing field with the hedge funds etc.

I have been involved in umpteen M&A deals now and all the companies acquired had debt on their balance sheet. This is not unusual, particularly growth companies. It is a non issue. Look at the FTSE 100 and how many companies carry debt even.

A couple of key benchmarks that should be a no brainer for PI's is the actions of the CEO (which I will not repeat) and First Seagull who will have done extensive DD as per link below.

Suspicions of a Superdry takeover grow after a new investor, First Seagull, began stakebuilding in the struggling retailer. According to a source, "It’s just a matter of time before there’s an offer".

https://www.theindustry.fashion/is-a-superdry-takeover-imminent/

GLA

JD is 100% going to make a bid. He does not want somebody else stealing his baby on the cheap....he will regret it forever.

He knows the company inside out, his own pockets are lined with 100's of millions and he is engaging finance partners/lawyers in relation to a bid - that is a FACT.

Bids do not materialise from the initial engagement when based on due diligence the external bidder/s do not like the look of something they were unaware of. JD knows the company inside out, this is not the case otherwise he would not be wasting his time and money on formalising a bid.

This is also a great sign for external parties that the company is kosher if the current CEO is preparing a bid. As a result there will be at least one bid from an external party is my forecast.

I predict the initial bid will be at £1+ with a counter offer at a higher rate. Remember where you heard it first!

Good posts Stockcheque, thanks

JD is a no brainer. One of the best retail brands out there. Sure they missed their forecasts but not by a significant amount given the scale. This has been well oversold and the impact on the MCAP was non-sensical.

Reasons to be cheerful:-

Major sporting events this year and the knock on effect to JD brands will be material.

I believe that the full trading update and FY25 forecast in March will have a few welcome surprises in there, CEO's always tend to do that after the noise from the last trading update.

I think we have moved on from green shoots in the economy to more tree roots being borne. Statistically 2024 will be a much stronger year economically than 2023.

JD's strength of brand is outstanding and was on the way to 200p realistically without the noise from the last trading update.

I firmly believe this will re-rate pretty quickly in the coming months.

GLA

Good points Toffers re consumer data.....data is KING as they say. The bank I work for on M&A's, the golden source is data and we monetise that with AI in terms of succinct and targeted marketing solely for the individual.

In my opinion it is fairly certain that JD will offer. Rationale:-

It is his baby since inception, he wants to make it the bright shiny star that it once was and he has the capability and expertise to do that.....partially a vanity project.

As we know he knows the company inside out from revenues, losses, assets, brand, operations, IP etc etc. He would 100% not be wasting his time and money on engaging finance partners, lawyers etc if he was not going to make a bid, there is nothing for him to learn regarding dead bodies within the company. He will DEFINITELY make a bid.

JD personally has £100's millions of pounds on paper to play with so he is personally not short of a pound but it is a good sign that he is also looking at finance partners.

Given his liquidity and relationships with finance partners the bid could come very quickly or it could be by the deadline.

Others parties that are definitely interested will have their minds focused to make a bid in the same timeframe otherwise they will be out of the picture. I firmly believe at least one other party will bid. Given a party engaged JD about making a bid last week is a very good sign.

Superdry's key money maker is undoubtedly the brand and IP. That alone could be worth £100's millions the only benchmark on that we have is they sold the IP in APAC for $50M.

My forecast at the moment without knowing all the detail is that the bid from JD will definitely be £1+ and with another bidder will be pushed up further.

GLA.

A statement released by Superdry’s general counsel and company secretary Jennifer Richardson revealed that chairman Peter Sjӧlander received a request from Dunkerton for permission to explore a buy-out offer and to engage with potential financing partners.

The company has formed a transaction committee to consider the CEO’s request, which was granted under specific guidelines.

Julian Dunkerton, who holds a 26% stake in the company, confirmed his engagement with potential sponsors to evaluate options. These include a possible cash offer for the company’s shares not already owned by him.

The discussions are at an early stage, and no concrete decisions have been made. The transaction committee has provided limited information to the CEO and the potential sponsors to aid in their deliberations.

https://www.retail-insight-network.com/news/superdry-private-ceo-offer/?cf-view

Dunkerton will definitely bid.....but with other players hovering at least one other party will bid, the price will be raised significantly in my view as a result. Also a good sign for other bidders if he wants to bid as he obviously knows the company inside out and would be bidding with no dead bodies lurking.

The incorrect piece in the article....the transaction committee will provide limited info to the CEO......HE IS THE CEO.....he knows the company inside out!

Thanks Toffers have had a scan of the RNS. It helps a bit but we have no idea in terms of what they are sitting on re further brand right sales forecasts etc.

Probably need an article where a journalist has done some rudimentary maths on potential bid price.

Admittedly we will not have all the information we need to make an accurate forecast. Things to consider, but not limited to;-

Branches - leasehold v freehold

Brand - Serious marketing gurus need to pin the tail on that donkey. But I personally think the brand is great, brand awareness is outstanding.

Revenue/losses

Assets - IP etc

Liabilities

Logistics

Resources

Operations - efficiencies / inefficiencies

Etc etc

Apologies, just wondering if any savvy PI's have had a go at forecasting assets v liabilities and a fair offer price aligned to market cap? I will have a scan this evening but grateful if somebody has something to hand.

I grabbed a stake earlier today on the key rationale that there are realistically 2 bidders on the table. I work on M&A's....and any time you get 2 serious bidders it cuts out any nonsense and obviously pushes the deal price up significantly if you have 2 SUPER keen parties which appears we have. GLA

I hope all PI's have a made a fortune on this 'no brainer'. Until the next AIM multibag best of luck......I will be focusing on my FTSE's. Ciao.

In all my years trading, I am not sure I have seen a better RNS.......GAME CHANGED!

Remember in the details at the bottom of the RNS......BINARY FLUID ELECTRICITY PRODUCING PLANT.

This becomes a multi billion company overnight.

Well done to all PI's

A measured helium concentration of 4.7% equates to almost nine thousand times above background levels

· Hydrogen also flowed to surface during basement testing, at a concentration of 2.2% hydrogen, over thirty-seven thousand times above background levels

Flowing helium to surface in such high concentrations is a huge milestone for the Company and we will now fully evaluate these results and focus on advancing this project in the most effective way possible; one that will aim to achieve COMMERCIALITY at the earliest opportunity.

This geothermal energy has the potential to result in either a direct use project or a BINARY FLUID ELECTRICITY PRODUCING PLANT. Which in turn could be utilised in a number of ways which may include powering several functions in the development and production phase.

PI's have reviewed the RNS, interviews, understand the significance of Helium and Hydrogen being identified simultaneously, have the benchmark of Noble analysis just down the road. There is very little guess work or risk in this.

if the RNS aligns to everything above it will be a 'game changer' for HE1. Post the RNS release the SP will open at a much higher point at 8am and will move exponentially within the first 10-15mins when it will be unavailable for any voyeur to trade....that is FACT. Review any 'game changer' RNS of any stock and analyse at what point a non PI can enter....Do your research.

A sensational RNS should never be released on a Friday.....it should always be done at the start of a week to attain maximum momentum.....they should continue with validating results even if more or less ready tomorrow (as legally they must issue material market information when available) to ensure maximum SP success....that is the golden rule with listed companies.

RNS will land Monday or Tuesday at the latest. Fully expect this to be a 'game changer' for HE1.

Good Luck PI's

Disclaimer....I made a tonne of rookie AIM mistakes when i first started trading years ago. I focus solely now on the FTSE's and NASDAQ. But always keep an eye on the AIM for a 'no brainer' - HE1 is the one.

The AIM market is flooded with circa 800 stocks. On the AIM there is always always a tranche of stocks that multibag many times over and then you have a bucket load of $hite.

The key thing is do your research and minimise the risk as much as possible. Then once confident, commit to the investment and focus on the FACTS and FUNDAMENTALS and eliminate the noise.

KEY POINT - RNS's, facts and figures move an AIM exponentially, noise on any board does NOT move the SP. The odd time you identify a nugget of information on there but it should not be the basis of your decision making.

Life is about risk and reward. As I said, minimise the risk based on your research and the rewards will come.

Last but not least with an AIM, you need the 'herd' of traders. We have that in bucket loads. Meaning it will move exponentially in a heartbeat.

Good luck PI's.

Sharing one of the key parts of my research that helped determine that I would invest heavily.

https://www.goldhydrogen.com.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023.12.06-ASX-Announcement-Very-High-Helium-Concentrations-at-Ramsay-2.pdf

Pulled out the key bits below if you do not want to read.

In the drilling process, the testing equipment detected both hydrogen and helium. Additional mud gas samples were extracted from key target zones. Ongoing analysis by a specialized third-party laboratory is underway to further confirm the

integrity of the results and enhance our understanding of the helium system. - Now review the HE1 RNS...Sounds familiar?

In response to the helium findings at Ramsay 2, Gold Hydrogen’s Managing Director, Neil McDonald

said:

“These initial helium results from Ramsay 2 are truly world-class. While we were already pleasantly

surprised by the previously tested and announced helium found at Ramsay 1, the results from Ramsay

2 of 6.8% helium in the raw gas do not come as a complete shock. Just last week, I had the privilege of

attending the World Natural Hydrogen Conference (HNAT), where international scientists shared

theories about the simultaneous discovery of helium alongside natural hydrogen. These findings further

affirm our commitment to pioneering advancements in the field and underscore the global significance

of the Ramsay project.” ....Again read the HE1 RNS....simultaneous discovery of helium and hydrogen....sounds familiar?

DYOR

A news article published in 2021 reported that the helium industry faced shortfalls of 20% from 2011 to 2013 and the same thing happened again in 2019.1 Helium shortages are having a serious negative impact.

Helium is well known as the gas used to fill party balloons, but its properties – low boiling point, low density, low solubility, high thermal conductivity and inertness – have also led to many significant uses. Helium’s liquid state is the coldest of any element, so its largest use is in cryogenic applications, such as cooling the superconducting magnets in medical magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners. Other applications include cooling and cleaning rocket engines, deep-sea diving, weather forecasting, cryogenics, rocket engineering, and manufacturing computer chips and liquid crystal displays. It is also used in physics and chemistry research.

Some researchers had seen prices increase by more than 250% over five years and were facing a severely limited and uncertain supply.