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Stats' question is perfectly legitimate. Technically, GCM/Asia Energy are operating under terms of an exploration and mining contract with the GoB. Legally, it is enforceable, but the problem and challenge could be actually enforcing it. If the GoB continues to ignore the contract it is pretty much worthless. Just imagine, for a moment, taking the GoB to court. It would be a long, costly and uphill process and would create nothing less than a lot of ill feeling and a stack of lawyers' bills. For this to happen, the GoB has to be onside. That is, Hasina has to be onside.
"...why we expect Phulbari go ahead in next few weeks!"
Your words, WiseOwl. But are they wise?
Those of us who understand that logic and Bangladesh do not always hang together will watch this space with interest.
The problem is that Professor Islam and his National Committee (un-elected) can punch above its weight and, in such a renta-crowd environment as Bangladesh, they can mobilise a lot of opposition. They would also tap into their green allies around the word. That is, and always has been, the challenge, and it is what has consistently weighed on Hasina's mind. They could stir up a hornets' nest of protest. GCM may be confident that they have everyone on board in those rice farms and in the main urban areas, but they thought that in 2005/6. It also true that the coal seam sits primarily under paddy field, but the number of people to be re-settled will quickly get exaggerated by the nay-sayers, as happened before. This is not to say the mine won't get the go-ahead, but Hasina has to be very confident of her ground before having a big hole dug in her backyard. Balanced discussion needs to take this into account.
Some of the runes look good and I understand the enthusiasm, but we have to keep in mind that this is not over until the fat lady sings. Although pressure is building on her, and around her, there is no sign yet that Hasina is ready to sign.
Yes, good indeed to see so many 'faces' from the past. We all have our battle scars, but we are still there! I watch and wait with interest to see how and if Hasina is reeled in. The one thing she won't respond to is logic, of that we can be certain. But there are other imperatives, other ways.
Not much new, except that for the first time I can recall there was no visible protest outside. Gary trotted through the standard line that there was mounting pressure from on-high to broaden Bangla's energy base and include local coal. The project had been ready to go for 20 years and what should have been plain sailing had been held up by political interference. Although there was expectation that things were developing positively and confidence that there was support for the mine locally, there was still no actual timetable for project approval. If and when approved, they would opt for hybrid financing together with a mining contractor. It's expected that PowerChina would have a major role. On other matters, Christian was present as a shareholder but no questions were allowed as to his departure which appears to have stemmed from disagreement with Tang over demarcations, although there is probably more to this. Tang was present by audio remotely, though not with a video link, and he pushed back all questions about Polo.
There is customarily a pathetic and noisy parade of ill-informed political and green opponents. But the advantage of the QEII centre is that they cannot get anywhere near the proceedings, nor can they block access. The odd activist token shareholder usually gets in, but their rants illustrate their ignorance and just add a spot of colour to the occasion.
Well then bythesea, you have misread my posts for 15 years plus. I am hugely positive about the company and the project - I invariably have been, having worked on it in country - but I remain hugely negative about its prospects as long as Hasina & Co are at the helm.
For the record, I remain on perfectly friendly terms with GCM/Asia Energy, for whom I did consultancy work. I was not an employee although I was in country a lot.
My misgivings have always been against the Bunglas. I learned not to trust them, and I am still to be convinced that the leopard has changed its spots.
Phulbari has been standing out head and shoulders for the last 20 years, and throughout those two long decades there have been plenty of juicy references to all the coal there ready for open cut extraction. What's been missing is the will to make it happen and the willingness to take on the powerful nimby lobby led by a group of un-elected mobsters.
Maybe, maybe, maybe, but I have called it right on Hasina ever since her election victory in 2008. Since then, she has sailed through multiple foreign exchange crises and energy crunches, and has continued to turn a blind eye to Phulbari. You can live in hope that she will be persuaded to change her mind, but hope it is.