Member Info for Phulbari

Yes, good indeed to see so many 'faces' from the past. We all have our battle scars, but we are still there! I watch and wait with interest to see how and if Hasina is reeled in. The one thing she won't respond to is logic, of that we can be certain. But there are other imperatives, other ways.

One of the prospective NEDs was present but was not introduced. They are both lined up and awaiting approval/endorsement.

Not much new, except that for the first time I can recall there was no visible protest outside. Gary trotted through the standard line that there was mounting pressure from on-high to broaden Bangla's energy base and include local coal. The project had been ready to go for 20 years and what should have been plain sailing had been held up by political interference. Although there was expectation that things were developing positively and confidence that there was support for the mine locally, there was still no actual timetable for project approval. If and when approved, they would opt for hybrid financing together with a mining contractor. It's expected that PowerChina would have a major role. On other matters, Christian was present as a shareholder but no questions were allowed as to his departure which appears to have stemmed from disagreement with Tang over demarcations, although there is probably more to this. Tang was present by audio remotely, though not with a video link, and he pushed back all questions about Polo.

There is customarily a pathetic and noisy parade of ill-informed political and green opponents. But the advantage of the QEII centre is that they cannot get anywhere near the proceedings, nor can they block access. The odd activist token shareholder usually gets in, but their rants illustrate their ignorance and just add a spot of colour to the occasion.

Martin was a good man. He turned up year after year at the AGM, always travelling hopefully.

Yes, unfortunately.

Well then bythesea, you have misread my posts for 15 years plus. I am hugely positive about the company and the project - I invariably have been, having worked on it in country - but I remain hugely negative about its prospects as long as Hasina & Co are at the helm.

Well-placed sources indicate that all is well and that shareholders have nothing to worry about. I can't be more specific and my sources could be wrong, but I am sufficiently confident to post this upbeat message.

Indeed, and I am reassured there is nothing untoward going on. But it's always good to cross check.

Never lose sight of the fact that this is Bungladesh!

On another front, any news on the de-suspension of GCM?

For the record, I remain on perfectly friendly terms with GCM/Asia Energy, for whom I did consultancy work. I was not an employee although I was in country a lot.

My misgivings have always been against the Bunglas. I learned not to trust them, and I am still to be convinced that the leopard has changed its spots.

Phulbari has been standing out head and shoulders for the last 20 years, and throughout those two long decades there have been plenty of juicy references to all the coal there ready for open cut extraction. What's been missing is the will to make it happen and the willingness to take on the powerful nimby lobby led by a group of un-elected mobsters.

No insights into that, I am afraid. My special subject is Hasina!

Maybe, maybe, maybe, but I have called it right on Hasina ever since her election victory in 2008. Since then, she has sailed through multiple foreign exchange crises and energy crunches, and has continued to turn a blind eye to Phulbari. You can live in hope that she will be persuaded to change her mind, but hope it is.

HenrytheEighth is on the money. Hasina isn't for turning.

Economic reality (whatever that is) will not trump political reality. The potential political fallout from the mine remains the primary consideration for Hasina, and that has always been the case, and remains so, according to my updated information. Like it or not, fear of civil unrest continues to weigh on the decision making. One can but hope that things (or minds) will change after the election.

My views remain basically unchanged, and based on a long-standing and first hand experience of both the project and the country. Hasina remains a roadblock. There is a considerable amount of pressure building to push for the mine to happen but there are - as yet - no clear indications that she has dropped her opposition to the project. With elections in the offing and her son a likely successor there is some hope value that things could change - hence the rise in the share price which has virtually tripled from its low base (clever investors who piled in). Expectations will likely fuel further increases but the rise is mainly founded on a four letter word - hope.

I usually go as well, and ask the usual questions and get the usual answer - jam tomorrow.

Arbitration would be costly and lengthy. There wouldn't be much small change left.

Not necessarily so. There would still be a potential mine; just the licence wouldn't be foreign/GCM owned. If Hasina buckles and let's the mine happen, this ruse is one way forward for her. We are after all investing in Bangladesh.