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You are wrong again GPback. I continue to have excellent relations with the company in question and bear no grudges at all against them. But having experienced Bangladesh, its media and politicians, I remain very wary about Hasina ever delivering, and this has been a consistent thread in my many posts. Your optimism is based on hope, little more.
Those who believe that Hasina, now the undisputed Empress of Bangladesh, will deliver on the Phulbari Project - and I am not one of them - will doubtless be heartened by the Postcard from Dhaka in the latest edition of Private Eye.
"Sheik Hasina has done her deals with big business, foreign friends and the security boys," it concludes. "They indulge her royal pretensions and facilitate her authoritarian tendencies. We may not like it but there seems little we can do: our prime minister is the undisputed leader of Bangladesh, the queen of all she surveys."
For all the huffing and puffing on this board, the joint project with the Chinese and the key ingredient, Asia Energy's open cut coal mine, is going nowhere until and unless Hasina budges and agrees to dig a big hole in her backyard; and there are still no signs of that happening.
No surprises at the cold shower. This project is still predicated on Asia Energy getting permission to start its open cut mine - something it has not proved very successful at in more than 15 years.
"GCM shall be responsible for obtaining the necessary approvals from the Government of Bangladesh."
Having the Chinese on board gives them much more clout and greater credibility, but they still have to convince Hasina. That is the cold reality.
GCM does not own that coal. It is a resource of the country of Bangladesh, and many people there would find statements such as 'we have 572mil tonnes in the ground minimum' highly offensive. GCM has a licence to mine it and then only subject to government permission and conditions, such as royalties, compensation, etc. If that licence is never triggered or indeed if it is never honoured that coal could well remain buried where it lies.
People are in danger of getting carried away here. Even with Hasina re-elected and with the Chinese on board, the conjunction - If - still holds sway over the adverb - When. That is certainly what the share price is reflecting.
ToeDipper - The result was a foregone conclusion; it's the aftermath, and formation of a new government, that weighs here. The big question is: will the disenfranchised opposition take to the streets? Once the dust has settled there then remains the biggest question of all: will Hasina embrace the project? NO one can be sure of the answer.
The protesters were shot in 2005. Hasina said it then and has said it since. It's of course always possible that she could turn and change her mind, but truth be told she has never liked the proposal to dig a big hole in her backyard to create an open cast mine on fertile rice fields. That's the challenge, and that is why the share price languishes where it does.
Wouldn't it be nice if you were right. The financial benefits of the mine and dependent power station(s) proposed by Asia Energy have been self-evident for almost 15 years, and still nothing has happened. Hasina seems as usual more interested in cracking down on her opponents - most recently students and schoolchildren - than on investing for the future. Take a look around the district of Gulshan in Dhaka to see how this former haven of foreign investors has lost is buzz.
Or are you suggesting that this AIM-listed company can achieve its goals with Chinese 'finesse' and stuffed brown envelopes?
NasiRul - you underestimate the national resonance of Phulbari. Opposition to the project runs far deeper than just Aunu's mob. They are simply the most vocal. The political left has been against the project from the outset, and their intransigence is one of the reasons why the Coal Policy is still not finalised. Like it or not, GCM/Asia Energy is viewed by the left, who still recall the bad deeds of Clive of India, as a foreign plunderer. In this climate, the nationalist press has largely bought into the propaganda about the big hole destroying the water bed and ruining rich rice country. The voice of reason, the explanation of the benefits of the project, are still largely drowned out.