The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
There is also a great quote by Geoffrey Chaucer (from his Knight's tale) which tends to reflect the jagged journey of GCM's share price:
Now up, now down, like bucket in a well. Even as on a Friday, truth to tell. The sun shines now, and now the rain comes fast.
Indeed he does know. Energy & Power has over many years published informative and supportive articles about coal mining in Bangladesh, and it has on the whole been a good friend of Asia Energy, but the catch is that it is a very low circulation English-language magazine and has virtually zero impact. It is certainly not on Hasina's reading list, and in any case there is still disappointingly no evidence that she is about to change her mind and dig up her back yard.
The answer is that last year's AGM was very effectively disrupted and a number of shareholders, including myself, could not get inside. The company should have thought of this sooner, but the Mayfair premises are not suitable if there were to be another similar protest. I am personally glad that this issue is being addressed, and I look forward to attending the meeting at an appropriate venue.
Such rail links are doable but costly and would most likely require quite a lot of new dedicated track and or major upgrades. This would involve more land acquisition along the way and commensurate opposition and delay. Combinations of rail, river and coastal routes are also possible. But shifting the coal all that way across such a densely populated country would be pretty crazy. Matarbari at Cox's Bazar is close to Myanmar, almost the opposite end of the country. Linking up with the proposed power plant at Rampal, close to the Sundarbans, would be a lot easier, because it is much nearer, but it also has logistical challenges. So while neither cross-country coal transport corridors are impossible outcomes, by far the biggest hurdle remains sinking the big hole to extract the stuff in the first place. Once that bullet is bitten, if ever, building a new mine site power plant is by comparison a doddle - and far more cost effective.
The land around the proposed mine is in fact very fertile - most of it is used for intensive rice cultivation. The poster expressing concerns about the entrenched opposition to the proposed mine is dead right. That has always been uppermost in determining Hasina's decision not to approve the scheme. No one doubts the potential long-term economic benefits, but a lot of politicians are afraid of the reaction on the ground in what is after all one of the most volatile countries and volatile regions in the world - hence the standoff.
All the arguments have been forwarded time and time again. Everyone knows that coal is more 'valuable' than rice, and that importing the stuff through non-existent deep water ports in the south is bonkers. But Hasina has to date taken no interest in any of the arguments. That's the roadblock. Keep that in mind every time another poster comes up with a rational bushy-tailed reason why the mine should go ahead. We are dealing with and invested in a project that is ultimately in the hands of the irrational.
Asia Energy (as it was then) has been tapping into and drumming the argument of providing electricity for an energy starved, energy deficient country ever since the early 21st century - certainly as far back as 2004. Rather than assuming that the penny will finally drop, you have to ask yourself why its proposed solution - a big hole in the midst of fertile rice fields - is not yet in a GoB outbox.
"if /once GOB get behind project ..." that has always been the problem. There is still no sign of Hasina changing her mind. The project has always been brilliant - at least on paper - but high level political support has consistently been missing or at best lukewarm. I agree that Tang is doing the best he can, but the holistic approach of teaming up with a big Chinese power player is only half the story; the challenge remains persuading Hasina to dig a big hole in her green and fertile backyard.
I am not saying there are none, but there are very few (only a handful in fact) big international operators who could take on the challenge, and it is not to be forgotten, as you point out, that BHP walked away from it. Like it or not, we are still on the North Face.
There are in fact very few international operators big enough to take on the logistical challenges and upfront costs of open cut mining at Phulbari, and so Ricky's surmise that none of the biggies has stepped forward is most probably correct. He is, though, wrong about it being an uphill struggle; it's more like a vertical north face - climbable but exposed and extremely tricky.
"no amount of deramping will stop us from attaining a true valuation on the GL."
GPback - you are quite right; deramping, as you like to call postings that have their feet on the ground, will make no difference to the outcome.
The only thing that will determine the outcome is Hasina, and the jury remains out when it comes to her changing her mind - Chinese or no Chinese.