Member Info for Phulbari

Gary's view (and hope) is that because of the country's dire energy situation Hasina will be led to the light. There is an expectation that she will stand in the next elections but - vote rigging notwithstanding - it is not a given that she will win. There is a lot, therefore, still to play for, even though there are many who continue to believe she won't budge.

AGM - it was low-key but upbeat. Gary presided with Keith at his side. The others were present virtually. The strongest message was from Gary who said that the narrative had changed post-Covid and post outbreak of the Ukraine War. Bangladesh was in dire straits and everyone wanted to avoid it following Sri Lanka into bankruptcy. The bench price for imported liquid gas had gone from USD3 to USD30 and coal was up four times. Bangladesh has two 'Rolls Royce' power stations with no coal because Bangladesh cannot afford to import it. Power cuts were becoming more frequent. *** reminded the meeting that the MP for the local area had raised the issue of the non-progress at Phulbari in Parliament and received a positive response from the minister responsible. But there is still the downside; the project is embroiled in politics and, even though engagement is taking place at high and strategic levels with the GoB and with her key advisers, no one in an official capacity from GCM has yet met with Hasina. She will almost certainly stand for re-election. Gary concluded positively that the landscape has changed. There were a few questions from anti-mine activists, and a question about Polo was kicked into touch. A couple of protest banners were visible outside but were lost amid the sunlit splendour of Westminster Abbey and the other monumental buildings in the area. Gary said he hoped it would be champagne next year; but I reminded him that he and other directors have been promising this each year now for two decades. Don't hold your breath.

Pappiklon - from observing Hasina for more than 20 years, I can assure you that she picks her fights skilfully and she is careful with her alliances. Bangladesh has had a bad record on human rights for as far back - extra-judicial killer squads operate with virtual impunity - and the BNP have been veritably quashed but Hasina won't open up a new front unless she has to.

Of course it doesn't add up. It never has. No one fully informed questions the feasibility of the project, but the problem is that Hasina fears a political upheaval if she agrees to open cut. She may or may not be fearing and boxing shadows, but the only way she could find out for sure is to give the project the go-ahead; and in the final analysis this is a risk she is simply not prepared to take.

…but she won’t run in 2023

At least, we hope she won't!

Showmethemoney is on the money. Sadly he is right about Hasina. She won't budge.

So the penny is finally dropping - There will be no open cut mine at Phulbari on Hasina's watch.

To reply to both Bangla and IC888 - I hugely believe in this project and of course want it to happen, hence my investment which goes back now almost twenty years. But I know the reality on the ground and understand the politics behind Hasina's refusal. Reference to the hole in her backyard is short-hand for the open cast crater that would have to be dug out of rich rice fields in very fertile farming land. The economic benefits of the mine would far outweigh any scar and temporary damage to the land, and also any alleviation required to control the disturbed watershed, but try telling that to the locals and to the well organised activists who oppose the mine. They are the ones who hold sway over Hasina, and there is no evidence that they have lost their hold over her.

Grundles - You are spot on about Hasina. Until and unless she changes her consistently held opposition to digging a big hole in her backyard, there is no deal.

Hasina, of course, will go on 'getting away' with it. She always has. I cannot, though, help but notice the irony of this piece written by an assistant editor of The Daily Star. The newspaper was in the vanguard of the opposition to Asia Energy when its plans for an open cast mine were first unveiled. Jamal was probably too young to recall. He also ironically quotes Anu Muhammad who was the un-elected, self-appointed and ill-informed leader of the movement against Asia Energy's plans. The message that Asia Energy's mine could go a long way to solving the country's power crisis was loud and clear back then but it was drowned out by the rhetoric and effectively shut down by the likes of Hasina. I still don't see any truly positive signs of change; nor for that matter does the market. Hence the share price is where it is. We can but live in hope.

No 99 - I will give you the courtesy of a reply and then I suggest we shut this correspondence down; it's getting more about the person than the message which is not what this board is for. I know the project well and am fully invested and supportive of it. If I come across as critical or downbeat it is because I am all too familiar with the challenging political, social and logistical climate in which it is attempting to operate.

Start by looking up my post after the last AGM.

If you had attended recent AGMs you would have heard me doing just that!

Let's keep this polite and good-natured. You know neither what I know, nor whom I know, but I have been calling it right on Hasina ever since (when in opposition) she rejected the mine following the August 2006 shootings. There is no evidence to date that anyone has changed her mind. We can but live in hope.

There is no point in submitting a formal proposal as long as there is push-back from Hasina's team. I am pretty certain in saying that she has never met anyone from Asia Energy - certainly not for a formal or informal briefing. She has kept her distance and in that situation it is hardly worth submitting anything. At worst, it would be outright rejected and at best it would sit in an in-tray, most probably with another committee or two assembled to deliberate over it. The time for submitting is when there is a clear political signal that Bangladesh wants to mine its own coal. No sign of that signal just yet, and I doubt it will ever come from Hasina.

The ramp up to saleable coal production of 15 million tonnes per annum will take a further five years.

The logistics of the site are not that simple. I know it well. Besides, it would take a long time just to negotiate and assemble the land bloc required. Bangladesh is a litigious country, and the mine's opponents won't just acquiesce. And even if the mine were approved and the land were acquired, however hard and fast they pumped the de-watering would still take considerable time, and then the digging is the digging - whatever equipment is used. Someone did for fun once work out how many man-hours it would take just to use manual labour - a theoretical possibility in such an over-populated country but in practice not a viable solution because it would be logistically challenging to house and feed such a large work force.

I said 'meaningful quantity'. They have to dig out, shore up and de-water a very big hole and bring very heavy equipment up country a long way from a viable seaport. Just google Asia Energy's own take on it.

Of course, the other key point is that even if the unthinkable happened and the mine were approved, it would take between four and five years to get any meaningful quantity of coal from the open cut - far too far ahead to save Hasina's skin. Her government has always preferred to paper over the cracks and go for short-term and expensive power generation schemes. Don't expect that to change.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62519139

There is an unintended irony in this BBC report. It quotes a complaining farmer from the rice fields of Phulbari - the very fields that the leftists and activists sought to protect from the proposed open cut mine there! Little do they understand:
No coal, No energy!

In more remote areas of Dinajpur, the stories are similar. Sheuli Hazda works in the paddy fields in the rice-producing district of Phulbari.

She says she can barely afford to buy the food she farms.

"With the sudden price hike of the fuel, the cost of farming has become very expensive," she says.

"Our salaries barely cover our living costs. Everything is so expensive, we can't buy enough rations to feed our children."

"As the cost of living rises in Bangladesh, people like Sheuli say their earnings are becoming worthless.

"If the government doesn't reduce the fuel price soon, we will starve to death."