Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The logistics of the site are not that simple. I know it well. Besides, it would take a long time just to negotiate and assemble the land bloc required. Bangladesh is a litigious country, and the mine's opponents won't just acquiesce. And even if the mine were approved and the land were acquired, however hard and fast they pumped the de-watering would still take considerable time, and then the digging is the digging - whatever equipment is used. Someone did for fun once work out how many man-hours it would take just to use manual labour - a theoretical possibility in such an over-populated country but in practice not a viable solution because it would be logistically challenging to house and feed such a large work force.
I said 'meaningful quantity'. They have to dig out, shore up and de-water a very big hole and bring very heavy equipment up country a long way from a viable seaport. Just google Asia Energy's own take on it.
Of course, the other key point is that even if the unthinkable happened and the mine were approved, it would take between four and five years to get any meaningful quantity of coal from the open cut - far too far ahead to save Hasina's skin. Her government has always preferred to paper over the cracks and go for short-term and expensive power generation schemes. Don't expect that to change.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62519139
There is an unintended irony in this BBC report. It quotes a complaining farmer from the rice fields of Phulbari - the very fields that the leftists and activists sought to protect from the proposed open cut mine there! Little do they understand:
No coal, No energy!
In more remote areas of Dinajpur, the stories are similar. Sheuli Hazda works in the paddy fields in the rice-producing district of Phulbari.
She says she can barely afford to buy the food she farms.
"With the sudden price hike of the fuel, the cost of farming has become very expensive," she says.
"Our salaries barely cover our living costs. Everything is so expensive, we can't buy enough rations to feed our children."
"As the cost of living rises in Bangladesh, people like Sheuli say their earnings are becoming worthless.
"If the government doesn't reduce the fuel price soon, we will starve to death."
This is typical. The Hasina establishment (her cronies) will throw up any excuse that they can think of regardless of its accuracy - most often picked up from the environmentalist opponents of the mine. They have never engaged in rational discussion; don't expect them to change. The closest you get to engagement and rational discussion in Bangladesh is through yet another committee. There are still a number of them smouldering in the rear view mirror.
Triple 8 - I am afraid my read-out on Hasina remains unchanged. Logic and market realities have never weighed on this project. Phulbari is wrapped up in the warped politics of the country, and Hasina just doesn't want to dig a big hole in her backyard. A successor might take a different approach and, meanwhile as attested by this report, coal will still be very much in the mix. We can but live in hope!
Soaring natural gas prices are giving rise to coal demand around the world, with consumption set to match this year the record-high from 2013, and further jump to a new all-time high next year, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The surge in natural gas prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine has accelerated a gas-to-coal switch and has made coal more competitive in many markets, driving a rise in coal demand and coal prices globally, the agency said.
This year, global coal demand is expected to rise by 0.7% to 8 billion tons if China’s economy recovers as expected in the second half of 2022, according to the IEA’s July 2022 Coal Market Update. This is despite an economic slowdown and still uncertain recovery in China after the COVID-related lockdowns in the second quarter of 2022. If the IEA’s forecast pans out, global coal demand this year will equal the demand from 2013, when coal consumption hit a record high.
Next year, coal demand is expected to rise further, albeit slightly by 0.3%, and hit a new record high, according to the IEA. Uncertainties about this projection have increased over the past few months, the agency noted.
India is a key driver of coal demand growth this year, while China—which alone accounts for more than half the world’s demand—is expected to see growing demand in the second half of 2022. This will likely bring Chinese coal consumption for the full year 2022 to the same levels as last year. China and India together consume double the amount of coal as the rest of the world combined, the IEA says.
Yes, I have been consistent about Hasina; she just won't dig up a big hole in her backyard. I've been close to the project since it's exploration days and I am making this judgement based on my experience. As a shareholder, of course, I wish I was wrong. It feels so wrong that so much shareholder money went into proving the resource and abiding by a contract that has subsequently been ignored and effectively dishonoured by the GOB. The Company should have sued a long time ago.
I did go to the AGM and it was a rather sad affair - held inside the fortress redoubt of the QEII Centre and therefore mercifully free of the usual ill-informed protestors. There were only two or three shareholders present. Aziz, Tang and Lye were hooked up remotely via video link and the meeting was chaired in person by Taylor-Wilkinson. The message from the board was the same as in the past - a further fund raising and consequent dilution coming up and work continuing on the ground to promote the mine and get it started. Two of us asked questions. One shareholder was there primarily to quiz Tang about Polo. I concentrated on asking whether there had been any tangible progress in persuading the Hasina government to let the mine open and whether they felt they could raise the finance for it against the current international green tide. On the first part, Lye trotted out all the reasons why the mine would be good for Bangladesh but he failed to give any substantial evidence that this argument was getting home and making traction at the top. On the second issue, the general consensus was that the finance would come from China - so, in their thinking, problem sorted. I have been going to these AGMs on and off since 2004 and this was no better and no worse than others - just more of the same. One was left as usual with the promise of jam tomorrow, and the faint hope that maybe - just maybe - something will eventually happen. Draw your own conclusions.
Redeyemines - You write an honest and rather poignant post. You are right; there was a time when it could have all come together but in recent years the writing has indeed been on wall. Hasina was never going to approve the project despite the wishful thinking of over-exuberant investors.
You have to ask yourself how many years ago did she make those remarks on TV, and has she ever repeated any such message? The most optimistic reading is that she was testing the waters and acknowledging the potential benefits of open cast mining. If so, this certainly did not create a great groundswell of popular enthusiasm for digging that hole in her own backyard. As for knowing what makes Hasina tick, your best bet is to ask yourself how long has she held out against the project? You will find a steely consistency there.
Pappiklon - I know that like me you are an old timer, but I am afraid I have to disagree with you about Hasina. Sure, she did indeed make positive remarks about the RWE operation near Cologne, as have a number of Bangladeshi journalists and officials who have visited the operation, but Hasina's political opposition to the Asia Energy proposal remains steadfast. It is not impossible that she could be persuaded to change her mind, but her instinct is to steer clear of making any such commitment as long as she sits on her throne. However admiring she might have been about the RWE operation, she does not want to dig up her own backyard and nor does she wish to stir up a hornets' nest of green/radical protests. Long termers will do better to look to her successors.