Member Info for Phulbari

Just as Hasina was never going to play ball, the same for green-wrapped Yunus. The next elections are likely two years away and counting, so dig in for another long wait.

It's gushing out now - quite how corrupt and nefarious was the Hasina government.

Things are looking far brighter for GCM. They are all saddled up, and there are good signs that the new government will engage.

GCM/Asia Energy won't be shedding too many tears at this (good) news! He was a big part of the Hasina roadblock.

https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/politics/news/tawfiq-e-elahi-arrested-gulshan-3699561

GPback - You are on the money there. But first we have to move on from the current over-green jokers.

A very bad ruler, indeed. It was always clear to those who watched her inner circle, and I always said so, that she would never play on our side.

"Nearly two decades later, shockingly, the agreement remained an ineffectual piece of document and nothing more than that."

The New Age piece posted by Jollychippy is a timely reminder that the opponents to open cut mining at Phulbari have not gone away.

The interim government is not expected to make any major decision on coal mining. GCM and its long suffering shareholders in all probability will have to wait until a new government is formed after elections.

There is certainly now a way forward, and fortunately very little of GCM's recent endeavours are wasted. The company was mainly in discussion with the GoB at a senior technical level. There had never been much high-level contact at Hasina's court, so nothing much is lost with her departure. But there is a cautious note - the power of the street. With the ransacking of its premises and installations in Phulbari in 2006, Asia Energy learned that to its cost. If the street turns against you in Bangladesh it's very hard to achieve anything; the diehard opponents of GCM's proposed open cut mine,, Anu Muhammad's mob, know that all too well.

Getting rid of Hasina would be a great step forward. She was never going to approve the project. But she will kick and scream on the way out, and she is not gone yet. Hasina and those who depend on her will try desperately to cling to power.

You will get the same old for the next xx years unless and until the GoB sanctions the mine.

The rise and more often the fall of the share price is, meanwhile, all but irrelevant.

And Hasina, meanwhile, is being true to form - doing nothing.

I don't expect any change there in the near future, but we can always live in hope.

These latest street protests only underline quite how volatile is Bangladesh. It's a renta-mob environment in which you can trigger a violent protest on virtually any issue. The push back and threat of more protest has always weighed on the decision whether or not to give permission for open cut mining at Phulbari. Hasina has steered clear of it for years, and fears of political fallout and public protest will doubtless continue to be a determining factor. Political unrest is not good news for this project.

No views on the short term other than obviously the recovery in the price was driven by bullish talk at the AGM. The long silence since then has to some extent eroded these gains.

I am more focused on the big picture. There is only one person playing there, and we are still waiting for the 'fat lady' to sing.

"The problem we have is that common sense decisions and political decisions are often not aligned ..."

In Bungladesh, the two are rarely, if ever, aligned.

Don't expect things to change under Hasina.

It's going to be long wait!

Worthy of note that we are three months on from the bushy-tailed AGM and there is still no sign of a decision by Hasina.

Stats' question is perfectly legitimate. Technically, GCM/Asia Energy are operating under terms of an exploration and mining contract with the GoB. Legally, it is enforceable, but the problem and challenge could be actually enforcing it. If the GoB continues to ignore the contract it is pretty much worthless. Just imagine, for a moment, taking the GoB to court. It would be a long, costly and uphill process and would create nothing less than a lot of ill feeling and a stack of lawyers' bills. For this to happen, the GoB has to be onside. That is, Hasina has to be onside.

"...why we expect Phulbari go ahead in next few weeks!"

Your words, WiseOwl. But are they wise?

Those of us who understand that logic and Bangladesh do not always hang together will watch this space with interest.

The problem is that Professor Islam and his National Committee (un-elected) can punch above its weight and, in such a renta-crowd environment as Bangladesh, they can mobilise a lot of opposition. They would also tap into their green allies around the word. That is, and always has been, the challenge, and it is what has consistently weighed on Hasina's mind. They could stir up a hornets' nest of protest. GCM may be confident that they have everyone on board in those rice farms and in the main urban areas, but they thought that in 2005/6. It also true that the coal seam sits primarily under paddy field, but the number of people to be re-settled will quickly get exaggerated by the nay-sayers, as happened before. This is not to say the mine won't get the go-ahead, but Hasina has to be very confident of her ground before having a big hole dug in her backyard. Balanced discussion needs to take this into account.

No insights or views on that other than it has always come good in the past.

Some of the runes look good and I understand the enthusiasm, but we have to keep in mind that this is not over until the fat lady sings. Although pressure is building on her, and around her, there is no sign yet that Hasina is ready to sign.