Member Info for Phoenixy

Kenni, not entirely sure what you mean here!

The article clearly says -

“ The company needs 75% of its creditors to agree to the restructuring plans, a threshold it has not yet reached, the source told Reuters on Thursday.”

I believe the restructuring plan means creditors (75%) need to agree to deferral of loan repayments.

Dbno, perhaps the reason why TD is looking for other viable options?

Intrigued as to where the support is coming from - is it institutional investors with more dilution, or Chrysaor or an unknown player who are more interested in PMO resulting in less dilution. Nonetheless good news than no news as the price according to TD/ IR team will be based at ASOS (as seen on screen) price which is almost 20p as of today’s close.

The support makes the future more certain!

Also in reuters -

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-premier-oil-restructuring-idUKKBN2682U3

Agree that RI price of 34p maybe at a premium and there won’ be many or lets say any takers. We also need to factor in price at which ARCM were issued shares back in June which i think was 27p, so they may not be impressed if now they were now able to get at a much cheaper price being the largest creditor. So watch the space if TERP was at a premium!

I believe Net Assets is relevant in every shape and form, it determines share price in a way. It is net assets in balance sheet that includes loans of $2 billion. Without these loans that form net assets, we won’t be here today discussing about dilution or predicting sp.

My assumption of 34p is based on closing price before HY results were announced. Probably, you are saying 12p due to crash in share price over last 2 days. I think it will be much higher than that, but that’s my opinion.

Btw, RI at 12p will result in SP of 15p!! Not miles away from 20p range, and with greater potential.

Just did a quick calculation to see where the SP maybe heading post dilution!

Net Assets end of June20 $490m
Andrew addition $230m
Debt reduction $300m

Total net assets after the above $1,020m or £605m

Weighted average shares in issue as at June20 850m

If RI is at 22p, addition of shares would be approx 1,850m, with total shares in circulation being 2,700m. Share price would still be 22p.

If RI is at 34p, addition of shares would be approx 1,200m, with total shares in circulation being 2,050m. Share price would roughly be 30p.

All in all, the SP may stay in 20-30p range in both scenarios. So, have we already seen the worse? Who knows?

Now, the interesting bit is additional income that will be generated from extra production. This will surely improve our net assets position, and if brent price improves, it will further increase shareholders value.

I believe the upside potential is greater here than any further falls. However, one has to be patient to reap the rewards, and for me, it’s not running thin yet.

Bully -

I beleive BE price is $32 and at $45 brent price, 100k production equates to operating margin before interest of $468m. Interest charges on loans of $1.6 billion @8.5% would be $140m. Other non cash charges etc estimated at $50m. Net margin after the above would equate to $273m or £210m.

Whatamess-
Brent price was in low $20s in March/April. Still, we have recovered to $45 even though you say worst recession in last 60 odd years. Remember oil price reached $140 in the last recession. totally appreciate the situation is different this time, but when the big powers are behind to save the oil industry, we will in no time enter higher price territory.

Just that the share price has crashed in last couple of days does not mean the future outlook will be all doom and gloom.

Assuming average Brent price stayed at $45pb for another year, then operating profit after interest payments should be roughly £210m. Now, if we end up with extra 1.2 billion shares based on RI at closing price of 34p (day before the HY results were announced) total shares in issue would be 2.1 billion resulting in extra 10p to share price so 44p....double your money in year’s time! This is my analysis...lol! However, the picture will be totally different if RI was at lower price or oil jumps to $50-$55 pb in few months time!

The company is not going anywhere, and oil prices will go up with extra production starting in few months resulting in extra FCF. No brainer for me to top up at these prices.

50p in a few days and SK will be back! Not realising he has lost gains of 25% from today’s price. Probably the SP will fall then when he rejoins...lol

Pmo has given almost 300% gains if you bought at March lows. Tomco on the other hand is 140% from March lows. Happy with my choice of investment.

So here we are!! Prediction of 50p met in less than a month.

Here from 14p days, and looking for a £1 by Xmas! ATB to all!

Most of the posts here are about sharing insights, de/ramping and boasting about how much they have made by day trading which i find utterly ridiculous . If it wasn’t for downbutnotout, I wouldn’t be here..Plain and simple!! DBNO in some ways helps to reduce my stress levels.

Keep up the good work DBNO!

If it can fall from 60 to 30 in a day, it could go to 50 in a month!

-40%. if that makes sense to anyone ;)

If Premier hedged the remaining 40% of oil at 35 per barrel, with remaining 60% already at 60 per barrel, it gives them an average price of 50 per barrel. Based on this, the SP should be atleast 60p imo. Should Pmo do this and remove all risks of volatility. Food for thought!!

SK
Make sure you transfer £50k today, and not just keep doubling until you win...lol

It’s hilarious when you guys say that shorters are holding the SP back when they merely are around 10-15%. Collectively, the buyers own the company by roughly 85% and still can’t get this moving in the upward direction. Something must be wrong!

OIL BULLISH
Longs once production cut chatter changing into a reality
Production is likely to fall rapidly
Voluntary production cuts from larger oil companies
Oil price to improve when the global lockdown starts to ease off
Shale oil producers couldn’t compete with OPEC producers
The IEA warns the oil industry needs to develop 18 billion new barrels every year between 2017 and 2025.

OIL BEARISH
Demand is down the drain and it could remain that way for a long time
Oil reserves keep surging before new output cuts take effect
Supply is set to exceed demand
Oil is a bureaucracy victim
Coronavirus can lead the oil to levels not seen since the 1990's
Global economic slowdown due to Corona virus
US Oil report implies domestic demand is dwindling
Effects of production cuts may do little to thwart a wave of selling.
Unexpected jump in US stockpiles