Member Info for Phoenixy

Rating is based on information that is available in public domain i.e. via RNS. At 7p level, market was unaware of the hedges tullow had in place. Once known, sp jumped to mid 20s. Uganda sale RNS took us to 40p level around June/July, but lack of any meaningful updates since that update, brought us down to 15p level. Like many others, we all invest based on this information, so does the ratings agencies, hence the upgrade seen today. Looking forward to the RBL update which could be a game changer for TLW.

Brent price is where it was at 4:30 pm If not lower, so am not getting carried away!

Uganda FID is only 75 million and in the grand scheme of things, its peanuts. With due respect, I beg to differ that this amount will cause us any issues. With the oil price rising, it could counter loss in production. The revenue from 65k production at $50 is more than 70k production at $45. Also, with less production comes less costs.

If they use shares to close their short position, then they no longer are shareholders of the new company. Furthermore, I read it somewhere creditors cannot dispose/sell their shares in the new company within the first year.

There is still a high percentage of short, roughly 6% in place by ARCM. I believe this has to close before the merger takes place but not entirely sure. If it gets closed we probably will see atleast 30p?

60-65k production guidance for 2021 as per yesterday’s CMD. Thanks to our hawk - Slift who pointed this out.

Pictet are the ones who started shorting around 12p level back in April all the way up to 26p. They are big time losers as none of their shorts are making any money for them. I think they will be reducing their shorts soon which will give the much needed boost TLW deserves - perhaps oil reaching $50 mark will do the trick (and treat for us).

Rookie, Buy Warburtons half and half from your dough at those levels...lol

Thanks Slift - that’s good to know!

Wow $74 pb! That would pay both 2021 and 22 debts without any issues (using some of cash in bank) plus some change for us in the form of dividends. Everybody is a winner!

Thanks for your analysis Slift.

One question, If the oil price gets to $60 pb in 2021, is the upside limited to only 46% of oil production as the remaining 54% is hedged at $49 pb. Would this mean that oil price has to rise substantially to counter the loss in production in 2021?

Ty

Positive RNS but not much in there so have to wait for the event later today.

No need to raise any cash as a result of Uganda sale and material savings being made.

Plan in place to reduce debt with returns to investors stated clearly (Not stakeholders!) by Rahul. This makes me happier as he is thinking about us which is what we want from our CEO.

There are plenty of gaps here and there. The big drop last year from 137p to 80p, and from 80p to 44p, both needs to be filled. The gaps gets filled both in down and up days, not just down daya. I believe we are currently in the up days!

Fugu,
I guess your head is spinning seeing SP going up yet again! Looks like you also missed out on big gains in Tullow too.

The dynamics have now changed with more focus on future, which looks more promising than ever.
Stay in the game - If you can’t beat them, join them!

From RNS, it looks like an acquisition of 69million shares yesterday at about 13p that has spiked the SP. The buyer probably knows more than we all do i guess!

Spd
I believe the impairment loss of £1.3b booked in H1 has already takes into account reduction in MV or net realisable value of the asset. Therefore, the loss on disposal has already been factored in the sp as part of H1 results. However, the sale of asset was not factored in due to many uncertainties around disposal, but this has been removed now. I believe there is more upside from here. Let’s see the momentum over next few days. GLA!

The biggest risk for Tullow is getting the Uganda sale done. Extract from the last RNS-

“In the unlikely event that the Uganda transaction does not complete, and the Group therefore does not receive $500 million proceeds on completion, the Base Case scenario forecasts that the Group reaches zero liquidity in July 2021 as a result of the forecast repayment of the Convertible Bond. This would result in an increased projected liquidity shortfall in respect of the 18-month Liquidity Forecast Test at the January 2021 and the March 2021 RBL re-determination (see below).”

Therefore, i think the reward of Uganda sale materialising is going to be a massive boost to the share price as the uncertainty around TLW going conern will be addressed immediately.

Also, Rns about RBL should land soon which shouldn’t be an issue hopefully.

Good luck all!

Lol kenni..You are mixing it here... just like coke with JD. enjoy the tipsy ride!

Kenni,
Pasting again here-
“ The company needs 75% of its creditors to agree to the restructuring plans, a threshold it has not yet reached, the source told Reuters on Thursday.”

Think today is Thursday and not old news!!

Kenni,
I think you need to read the article again and go and lie down in a dark room to really understand what it actually means.

Kenni,

I go by what the Reuters article and the RNS of 20th August states. Guess you need to refresh your knowledge about the company here and know what you are investing in.