Member Info for philpot1001

Sorry when you said pre 2008 levels I thought you were implying low hundreds lol... Yeah I think sub 800p is certainly possible, sub 700 i would certainly be surprised, but with the market sentiment the way it is I wouldn't fall off my chair.

I personally think pre 2008 levels is over egging it somewhat, I could see it hitting 600's potentially, but I've never been involved in a share that goes out of an index before so don't really know what to expect. I dipped my toes in at 870, if it goes into 600's I will start loading up heavily (assuming I can free up some cash).

If the crazy politics of recent times ever sorts itself out sterling will rocket IMO - and hence so will EZJ, if not it can go lower, but a huge amount of pessimism is baked in already as ever with SP drops.

Hi guys, I bought in of Friday..
Just a note, price of crude alone does not rule the SP here, sterling / dollar also affects the price EZJ pays for fuel... as long as sterling is down, this SP will be negatively affected IMO unless crude totally collapsed.

Kier guidance was poor today , wondered if that may negatively affect us. Hopefully not too much.

Is picking up again, I thought it had maybe run out of steam.

apologies if I've misunderstood

regarding the new loans for the cashew project - as far as I can tell the new loans have a 2 year grace period, hence my understanding is they would not be included in any assessment against current loan covenants? i.e. I was specifically thinking of the 5 * EBIT ceiling on loans written into the covenants, so i'm assuming it gives DKL 2 years to beef up their EBIT to ensure the 5 times cover is met incl the new cashew loan values as well as historical loans?

There will always be buying inertia when the ask price goes up a step. Looks good here to me, as long as we get a respectable Q2 (above 11k T, ideally above 12kT) I think this SP is looking v cheap. As FK pointed out any poor Q's do knock the stuffing out of us, but I do believe this company suffers from over selling during bad times, seen it regularly on AIM....and hopefully we've seen the last of the stinkers for a while. I'll have some more potential investing cash come July, so ill see what happens by then.

So this is our new major buyer (rugs spotted a trend on the buying pattern last week). Good to have a new major investor... no idea who they are though

Gotcha

net avg debt for half year report states 126 million down from 208 million year before...where do you get 1.21 Bn debt from?

according to the media the offers from BVS have terminated (although its is "possible" they may come back to the table). IMO the SP drive is partly any possibility of BVS or another party looking to snaffle up GFRD, and partly its now blindingly obvious this SP fall is waaaaay over cooked...………...all IMO of course.

The good news in all this is regardless of outcome, BVS opinion is Linden is worth 1 Billion on it's own (and they probably tried to low ball it to get a steal), MCAP here should be waaay higher, SP over 1000p for sure not IMO, in BVS and GFRD BOD.

I did see that article.... couldn't work out the 1.05 billion just thought I misunderstood the numbers.

Wish this was over 9 quid a share lol

worth noting 768p is not quite as tempting as 850p - so I kind of understand the BOD perspective of dismissing the bid if it was equal to 768p.

if they come back with an improved offer (say 900p) I for one would be biting their hand off.

just done a more accurate calc and yeah I agree Londoner, offer was equal to SP of 850p (on a nominal basis)….not sure how / if the debt was rolled up in that though.

bit risky having the construction business on its own IMO.

Correct me if im wrong here - my assumption is, if the transaction had gone through, GFRD share holders would have been issues BVS shares in leiu of the value of GFRD shares equal to (say) 768p..... and any association to the construction business for us would have been severed? Effectivley we would all become BVS share holders?

does mean the GFRD BOD and independent financial adviser reckon the GFRD SP is worth > 950p (ish).

lets hope they are correct.

at that price I wish they had taken it