Member Info for philpot1001

you think the interims were a one off due to a poor season then rugs? Could be. Q3's should be out soon anyway, but would be nice to have an idea if they broke even / made a profit in H1, so interims would be useful.

in all seriousness, GFRD are supposedly de-risking and being more selective about their construction contracts.....so why take on half a billion quids worth of the same contracts that just cost them near 200 million? Am I being daft and missing something? Is the devil in the detail, and they have more robust contracts if something goes wrong rather than the fixed price contracts that dropped them in it?

Are we due Interims again this year, or just Q3's in Oct? Not sure if the Interims last year were a one off RNS or intended to be repeated

Went to a zoo on the weekend with my family, they were giving a talk about Sumatran Tigers, and how palm oil had devastated the rainforests - however they also detailed, good palm oil and bad palm oil, and specified their zoo only purchased the "good" RPSO palm products! If a zoo is prepared to purchase RSPO products, gave me a lot more confidence that DKL and other RSPO suppliers green credentials are genuine.

Saw it JK, cant say I was overly fussed either way. Seems sensible to me, cant see it'll change much TBH.

CPO Q3 and Q4's seem to be a little more important than most years as it makes or breaks our annual record hopes. Should be on for a record year with semi reasonable H2. Still waiting on the interims......

Today, by all accounts

Mind you if the FT were correct after the deal I would be considerably up.

In fairness it isn't just construction, although it's a smaller part the regen sector is pretty profitable. I guess it depends on what side of the coin you flip and whether you think the UK economy will upside or downside.

I think I'm going to hold on, but if it can manage to break 700p, I may set a stop loss at 700p and exit if it falls through. I'll see what happens Monday.

I personally think the rump should be higher than 90p, especially if they retrieve £100m from claims. So rump could be worth more than 90p eventually

Although obviously a longer term counter argument is for GFRD to not do the deal and recovers back to 1400p.... If you believe it capable of doing so. But IMO it would need to recover a good £100m - 150m from AWPR legal claims, and show a good 1-2 years worth of constant good progress on construction front. Even then, as they are openly being more picky with contracts I don't think revenues will be high enough for 1400p, so maybe 1100p??... dunno, it's all conjecture.

Just chugging the numbers, I have £6500 in at 640p, giving me 1015 shares (ish). At today's price my equity is £7090.

If the deal goes through, with Bovis at 1100p, I then get 1015*.574 = 582 Bovis shares, worth £6,408 plus (assuming 90p share value of rump GFRD) £913 GFRD .... by the way 90p seems low to me personally, so I see this as worst case. Either way my total is then £7321..... so I'm better off under the deal scenario as of today.

Could the deal be better ? Probably. Will it? Probably not. But in pure cash terms, for me it makes sense. .... unless I've ballsed up the calc.

Someone feel free to correct me but my take on it is... as we receive 574 bovis shares for every 1000 GFRD the higher the Bovis share price the more it's worth. Regarding being a good deal for you personally I can't comment, for me with my AVG I think it works out OK .... but I will admit it all depends on the real value of the construction / regen arm. But I think the regen sector is doing quite well.

Showing a bit of resistance at 700p could do with a short closing or ii buying a big chunk to move it up. Bovis is doing well today, so in theory so are holders here if the deal goes through.

OK thanks for the clarification Londoner ;)

Net average debt is 186m.

PS I agree with you RE debt, however isn't the latest fig something like ~180m for avg debt ? ... I need to check that number

Londoner regarding claims, I believe they are actually chasing 200m, but believe they will settle at 100m out of courts before Dec....but it's no guarantee. I'll try and dig the reference article out later

This is moving down on not much selling pressure.

I'm assuming part of the reason for falls in revenue and profits are related to being more selective on construction ventures?... need to fine comb the results when I return to UK

Can't see any new shockers in there unless I've missed something. I did only partially glance. Divi is down slightly on some expectations from posters here, but still a juicy 9%+ for me.