Member Info for philpot1001

This is knife edge stuff, really can't call this one... can they get it though parliament without DUP?

I cant tell if its minor tweaks to the deal required, or if its a fundamental issue. If its minor it could be signed today - maybe - potentially lol

DUP Skittle current deal, however....

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12234-pound-sterling-today-dup-holds-out-against-deal-but-still-room-for-further-gbp-strength-vs-euro-and-dollar-says-analys

"The British Pound fell early on Thursday morning after the DUP - Northern Ireland's unionist party that backs the Conservatives in Government - said they could not back a Brexit deal in the form currently being proposed.
The DUP leader Arlene Foster did however say she is willing to continue working with the Government to try and secure a deal they could back."

lol 100% s"T"ocks

i'm still holding here and numerous other UK based FTSE stocks, but not 100% socks, still have 25% cash as a hedge. It could very well go through - but it could very well all fall through.....I just don't know, its almost a 50/50 call. Sounds to me as though DUP wont support it, so its seemingly left to brexiteer conservatives, and the conservative rebels coming together, maybe even some Labour rebels? Dunno.

PS I personally think if there was a deal and it continued to allow good trading relations and minimal risk to the economy, we'd be looking over 350p here IMO .... although it would probably take a few months to get there.

I k ow what you mean, however the view point on this seems to change hourly!

Something seems to have happened in the past few minutes... not sure what yet though!

looks like we're at a ceiling on SP (same with all other UK stocks) until either the actual deal is announced or they agree to formally discuss it at the summit.... it is also possible a minor extension is required, don't think that would negatively affect us too much as long as the rhetoric continued to be positive.

mind you they did have 489p not long back lol.

I think with a decent Brexit conclusion, and likelihood of increasing interest rates >400p is "possible" in 2020.

FWIW Jefferies predicts 418p

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/904744/rbs-share-price-could-rise-by-over-90-says-jefferies-904744.html

at these levels I for one have one eye on purchasing (added a grand the other day) at 1.99p. We had an SP of 4p when chaos was reigning and the production level was imploding. OK, proft margins are not great at the mo due to CPO prices, but knocking out 40kT with zero fertilizer gives is a cracking base ground to move up from. Really hoping the fertilizer programme delivers a fraction of its potential. I would like to know what % of the small holders have taken up the fertilizer offer, so I will email Lincoln soon and see if I can gleen any info on that.

That said, as discussed here - lack of growth here is frustrating. Think they had one eye on Norpalm as an "easy fix" for too long, and could maybe have been better focusing on the home woes (fertilizer programme 2 years ago would have seen us well on the way). Easy to criticise with hindsight but there you go.

if they strike a deal you're probably talking +25% in a day on here and many other UK stocks......obvs however if it turns out to be over egging the positivity it will sharply go down. Fingers crossed

*EDIT

"+10% or 20% Next year"....

lol rugs ;o)

well, as the implosion of production has thankfully evaporated for now, the elephant in the room here is definitely growth. When they upgraded the mill to ~70kT I think a lot of us were expecting things to quickly get there, obviously that now seems mistaken, but at least we're looking like certainly being >39kT, maybe even >40kT. Looking at the prod figs for past 4 years or so, the supply chain seems to have hit a ceiling near 40kT +/- a bit. The fertilizer programme could really get us out of a hole, I spoke to Lincoln some months back before it started, and he was quoting +100% figures if things go well. I personally think that's optimistic, but I think we could see +10-20% near year, more the year after....then we have the cashew mill initiating as well..

could we finally start seeing the growth curves we've been craving? The patient here, surely deserve it ;o).

Bang on as usual JK!

Looks like Q3's are kind of inline with what I half expected (near 5,000 T) but I will be honest I was kind of hoping for nearer 6,000 T.... we are still theoretically on for > 40,000 T for the annum, but we will need near 6,500 T in Q4. I think truthfully, we are probably going to end up near record annual prod, but maybe not quite there. Shame about the yields, but understandable I guess...… The fact we are so close to annual records though is a definite positive. Just hope the fertilizer programme shows some benefits next year.

Chinese talk of trade deal with USA has lifted CPO again - back to 560 now.

Also saw in the news that Soya products are getting lambasted for environmental reasons (i.e. Amazon burning etc) so guess pressure may mount in paces like the EU to boycott products that have been potentially grown in those regions, potentially reducing the head of products available to offset CPO.

Yeah that would make sense, the old graphs miss the true peaks and troughs.

according to google finance it went down to circa 120p (probably spiked lower, something like 105-110p....but I wasn't involved in the share at the time so don't have detailed working knowledge

CPO prices seem to have at least found some support around 540 dollars. Hopefully it can find traction, or at least steady at these levels until early 2020 before pushing up again.