Member Info for philpot1001

I'd be happy with 4.5p lol ;-)

This could be a useful chart.

http://www.palmoilanalytics.com/price/16

Its Rotterdam Prices, and DKL sell at a premium to Rotterdam (from memory). Currently its ~605 dollars on Rotterdam prices.

discussed this with Rugs and crew - my personal opinion is, its in line with my expectations. in 2016 when we had our record year, H2 was a little depressed, I just think the heavy yielding the plants do in H1 slightly stresses the plants. However we don't really have enough strong H1's to really generate a trending pattern. Also worth noting all we need in Q4 is circa 6,000 T and we have a record production year on our hands...… even with 5kT its still a very strong year comparatively.

FK will point out that the "growth" has hit a ceiling, and its a fair point, however I think its fairly obvious that without an "external accelerator" breaking 40kT is going to be a struggle. I'm really hopeful the fertilizer programme will provide the kick for us to get to the next level of near 50kT in 2020.....long term, it "could" move us up to near 80kT (if you believe Lincolns numbers).

It's a real shame we couldn't have had this price spike during H1 when it really counts. Hey ho, better than being low all year! I believe they held some back during H1 so will be able to offload that at a higher price.

Hopefully 2020 H1 sees some decent CPO prices along with some decent prod figs.

As far as I could tell it was closer, but I couldn't be sure.

REA CPO price quotes at 12 month highs

India are talking about boycotting Malaysia CPO due to comments made about Kashmir. That should lift international prices and lower Malaysian prices I would have thought ..... that said, the boycott is not confirmed as yet.

Hi Dropside - I've not been keen enough to look for it as yet - it could maybe be on the twitter feed? Not sure.

if you need it urgently, maybe chase Lincoln directly via email.

EDIT * "look more rosey"

Think that's a little harsh FK, in the very least prod figs have stabilised since the chaos that started the SP plunge. Could be looking at a record year (maybe)...but I appreciate where you are coming from, I.e. no real growth yet, and profits at this year's CPO prices are wafer thin / non existent.

If the fertilizer programme starts to deliver a fraction of it's potential our breakeven CPO prices falls dramatically, and if CPO gets back above 600 bucks next year.... in theory things really could start to look a lot more to say.

Problem is it's ifs/buts/maybe... investors tend to bork at things like that and hold off until it's proven.

money talks FK, as soon as we're back in profit SP should get back to 3-4p IMO....but as you've stated many times we need to see evidence of growth to get back >5p.

maybe im a total sucker, but I believe it will get there in time. Hopefully before I kark it.

PS CPO price currently up near 570 dollars

Best guess status quo ... +/- 2%

Current estimates are hey may just sneak it... but it's inconclusive! Not sure how the letwin motion affects it (if that gets passed)

I'm out, sold at small profit. Could be a mistake, but I have significant property holdings, so way i see it is either way I benefit, if the deal gets approved. Looking to sell my rentals anyway so if we get the deal hopefully the market picks up..... I may very well be buying back in on Monday, but at least won't in loss.

its just so close - current estimates are 302 for and 301 against with about 30 odd undecided. good grief....what to do, what to do?

Going to be seat of the pants viewing

Going to make my decision tomorrow - not sure what it will be yet, but FWIW its smelling like the deal wont get through (but you never know). My guess is a failure at Westminster will lead to general election, or possibly final referendum with DEAL/NO DEAL/REMAIN.....but it is a guess.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12235-brexit-deal-done-pound-sterling-rallies-vs-euro-and-dollar-on-breakthrough

"Pound Sterling rallied after the EU and UK finally sealed a Brexit deal, but the currency subsequently sunk again as it dawned on foreign exchange markets the deal will be dead on arrival at Westminster....

Arithmetically this means that a net 30 MPs are required to switch to the government for the motion to be carried. The situation though in practice is more complex given the composition in the Commons has changed given defections, whip withdrawals and a by-election," says Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec"

what happens now if it doesn't get through on Saturday - and now there is no extension? this is getting nuts

our problem as PI's is the decision is made before we get a chance to pull the trigger.....the II's will move it 15 mins before open either leaving us high and dry, or left at the start gates while the SP has shot north......basically for us, its a gamble either way.

I genuinely don't know which way I'm going to place my bets yet. Current rhetoric in the press is Johnson doesn't have the numbers without DUP...…..what happens if he fails? Are they going to push for no deal - if so how? Is default now a general election? Does Benn law get enforced? who the heck knows!

I think if the deal is approved by parliament you could see +20% on Monday.....if it is bounced, who knows, -20%? What I would do for a crystal ball!