Member Info for PhilGekko

And now think: are company's fundamentals better or worse than when you invested?

If the answer is YES - forget about AIM games, shorters' doom & gloom and all the other BS. Market forces will eventually do their thing, DATA IS KING.

If the answer is NO - reassess and decide if you should sell.

It really comes down to this. I think everyone knows which camp I belong to. This is just my opinion.

Candlestick... you're right. Not a pretty scenario. That's of course if he really wants to sell everything and doesn't care at what profit/loss. Big IFs. But yes, that's the downside.

Considering what's been going on with the share recently it makes more sense to be pessimistic than optimistic.

But that's what normally happens at the beginning of a process a lot of biotechs go through - normally there is a catalyst that causes panic (in our case SO sell-off) which triggers PIs bailing- and IIs gradually moving in.

At current mcap of £90m our SP is an absolute joke. There is a reversalnon the cards (soon I hope). Good luck tonus all.

Dave. Again, what I said yesterday is that IIs own a significant chunk , alongside insiders to influence any vote. And I stick by that. If BoD suggested to PIs to hold a lot of people would I reckon, even if more than a half of PIs wanted to take the deal it still wouldn't go through.

I never said they have a majority of shares. But yes, they could influence more intelligent PIs (the ones who have done research and know the potential of what they own) into holding out for a better offer.
Your claim that 4D management could be offered some nice perks by a big pharma taking us over to me makes no sense, even though theoretically possible not sure it's realistic. If data is good here, this is a company worth billions of USD. Again, if data is good which we all hope will be the case.

Crl123... tbh I can only assume that various hedge funds out there play all kinds of games with PIs.... the only defence mechanism I have is to invest with conviction and have certain targets I look to achieve before bailing.

If some people have £1 or £5 targets - I get that, that's fine, we all gave different investment/trading tactics and objectives. I just think that this MIGHT turn into something very interesting and produce much more return with a lot of patience and a very thick skin. Obviously it could bomb spectacularly (it's already costing me a lot) but there is enough promise there l think for some super cautious optimism.

Dave, there is a lot of misrepresentation and twisting of what I said in your previous post. Also, you sound very patronising - as you like to say: pipe down! Let's be civil.

IIs ownership is significant enough to be able to affect any kind of a vote. Plus, insiders do own a decent chunk.

Duncan is not my mate, thanks for letting me know, but will probably not want to sell for peanuts as both him and AS have serious money involved - and considering the work put into building 4D. Just my guess.

And please, read my post, I am saying that all my forecasts are based only on data being good and Oncology pipeline continuing to show promise.

I understand everyone is really bitter right now because of a catastrophic SP action recently (same here) but I am trying to look at the bigger picture. Btw, not sure where you came up with my 'projections of £100bn'... I just said that's what I think I read GlobalData we're saying Keytruda is worth to Merck (as a product).

Again, all if this is just my opinion and what is keeping me going despite all the recent disappointments - and all of the upsides are based on data and trials updates being good.

Hi Dave, if that was you who suggested £3 then my comment would be:

1.Do you think II are holding through all this pain (well apart from SO) are doing it for risk/reward upside which comes to £3/share? In a scenario where they are 'betting' on a company delivering potentially a brand new drug class?

2.Do you think they would approve a TO of approx. £ 500m if data is solid and onc pipeline alone is worth potentially in billions? Just look at Keytruda sales numbers to give you an idea of the scale. If not mistake, according to GlobalData, Keytruda is worth approx 100bn to Merck.

2.Do you think BOD would recommend to shareholders to aprove TO for peanuts if data is solid?

I reckon NO on all counts. We just need onc data to be good. That is all. Because at that point IIs will want to get involved and Blautix /Asthma etc. Won't matter at all. Btw, I still expect Blautix to deliver us some joy in (hopefully) near future.

Obviously all of the above is based on onc results continuing to impress.

I newsstand taking the money and moving on is your investment strategy, maybe very wise, but I am just talking about what true potential of this company might be in a relatively near future.

Just my opinion.

Crl123... same here. I'm still in SNG and feel 4D is equally promising (in some ways even more promising, if microbiome delivers) investment than SNG.

I have invested previously in stocks that went 700%+ in a day, when market finally gets it and the race to get in starts. In 4D updates are good, we might see something similar.

Oncology pipeline ALONE, if forthcoming updates are good, is worth in billions. Those who think 4D should go for £3 /share really need to do some DD and find out what they hold. This is either going to flop completely if miraculously microbiome proves to be a dud (imho highly unlikely, due to the amount of research coming out almost daily in support of it's clinical efficacy) - or it could be the next Arena Pharmaceuticals -type deal with a big pharma in 12-24 months. My last top up was at 60... that's me done. Roll on Q1 22 - popcorn time.

Bucklefern.... strong share price gives BOD options and better negotiating position (if needed). That SP consist of II money and PIs (regular Joes). So yes, winning PI sentiment is very important for 4D at this stage of its development.

Boonco... completely agree with you. All I said is that presenting on camera and to PIs is not one of DP's strengths .. and let's be honest he doesn't inspire confidence in ' regular Joe ' investors. And every company, especially SMEs, definitely need them. As a strategist he is great, and should continue the great work he is doing as the CEO, but shouldn't be the 'face' of 4D. I think AS is much better at it, especially since CSO and possibly better equipped to talk about the trials. DP should continue stiring the shop from the bridge.

Should our research continue the way it is going... various distressed sellers will be long forgotten. And it won't matter that DP doesn't look very good on camera. His company, if trials continue well, will be a market leader in a brand new drug class. And these sorts of headlines is what we can hope for.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-acquire-arena-pharmaceuticals-114500764.html

Hindsight is a beautiful thing. That said, you could have an investor news land any day that makes this stock go wild. Don't be too hard on yourself. Timing is very important though, I agree there.

Fundamentals in my opinion have never looked better. Things progressing on all fronts (including Blautix!).

Yes, Proactive interview today was criminally bad. DP was even introduced on the screen as AS (did DP maybe have to get involved last minute if AS unavailable? No idea). DP looked ****ed off the entire interview - if he doesn't like doing them it needs to be someone else - but not him. Have massive respect for him but he shouldn't be the face of 4D. Just my opinion.
But... company is looking strong. Some derampers here working really hard to scare people into selling out of fear (gents, you are robbing 'regular Joe' PIs of their saving - well done).

I think there is a bunch of people waiting to see when our seller plans to stop finally - at that point they will jump in.

Just a feeling. I think we received another good RNS today, our distressed seller is really killing us.

TheBigHeroRises - spoke like a true hero mate :) Jokes aside - good luck with your investments.

Porky - my only concern with SP going down due to seller offloading is that someone (like a big pharma, i assume there are at the very least a few interested) might make a £500m offer for the company and scared PIs decide to take 5X and run :) Need to check most up to date ownership structure and see if that is even possible?

If microbiome is what we all hope it is - 4D is the next Tesla in my (very humble) opinion, not sure people agree with that.

Stay Long... makes sense completely.

I have also been very worried that there are no IIs/funds to readily hoover up Oliveira's shares... but microbiome therapeutics are still commercially unproven (despite growing science in support of microbiome efficacy) so that will have kept investors at bay. That's why the news yesterday was good in my opinion, just solidifies the whole microbiome philosophy/concept.

Good luck with your other investments, hopefully you time re-entry here right!

StayLong - I mostly agree with you, there is only one problem with your plan.

At ANY given point an II (whether here or Nasdaq) can decide to get involved as price is at a serious discount and company is relatively derisked and reasonably well financed - which literally overnight pumps the price up (have see this happen several times on Nasdaq). There is always a chance of that happening as the company is getting more and more II exposure - personally would love for that to happen, maybe just my wishful thinking here :)

Porky - thanks for sharing this. One thing also worth mentioning is that prescribing physicians really struggle to pinpoint what type of IBD a patient is suffering from due to overlapping symptoms in a big % of cases - so having a safe, well tolerated drug that can wok across all types is always a great first choice prescription medication. I have believed, even on the day Blautix results came out and the SP tanked, that Blautix had commercialisation potential. Placebo cohort results in trials for gastrointestinal conditions normally comes out higher/distorted as trial participants tend to 'feel better' thinking they have been given a treatment. This is one of the biggest challenges in gastro trials - and I think if data from yesterday can serve as a quantifiable proof of the impact Blautix is making that really is huge.

Just my opinion ! :)

Forte Biosciences - as discussed previously check out SP over the last 6 months and its link with our esteemed distressed seller... that's the reason probably he is in distress. Forte was a binary play and didn't work out- everything else is just balancing the books, nothing personal/ emotional about it.

We have Asthma and PC data to look forward to in the short term and Keytruda trial (along with FDA/strategy update for Blautix) in Q1. Slide 7 of the recent presentation looks pretty exciting (I.e. multiple shots on target).

This is as far from a binary biotech play as a 120m biotech can be. GLA.

Whatever various shorters now decide to do will only have a short-term impact on the share price. It doesn't bother me.
I was one of the biggest critics over the last few months because 4D were late with updates and were not providing reasons for the delays. That to me spells trouble normally and is always a concern.

However, RNS this morning for me has shared additional material data, as well as a reasons behind the delay (I.e. FDA process). I can live with this, obviously still not a 100% guarantee of success but a significant additional piece of analysis in support of microbiome as a concept.

If this concept is validated and 4D is a market leader in a brand new drug class... wow (as my wife calls it ' future Tesla of pharma industry'). That's the real prize here and why I am holding.