Mumbo... not sure what the purpose of your post is.
I 'fall in love' with every company I invest in, when I do full due diligence on it. Everything, including profiles and background of the management team. I do this with every one of my holdings, both on AIM and on Nasdaq. And I never short, as a matter of principle.
I admit I could not see a scenario where BoD allows this outcome. Which is why I invest in a number of companies to manage risk as I never have full visibility. I do still think that science here is very promising.
As to whether you've been shorting here or not: that's between you and your conscience, I dont care. Whenever I see people posting on a board where they are not invested in, and they keep posting for months (and all very bearish) - I assume they are either shorters or have a lot of time on their hands. Again, no need for you to explain yourself here.
Good luck to you. You were right. If you could see this outcome 6 months ago fairbplay to you.
@Porky
For any pharma looking to expand into microbiome space- this is a unique 'just add water (cash)' opportunity. They buy 4D for peanuts and slap their logo on it.... I.e. Merck/ Pfizer/ Sanofi Microbiome Division. Btw peanuts for big pharma is anything below 250-300m, possibly even higher than that depending on the pharma.
In case this happens we just need to hope there are 2 or more parties interested and decide to put a bid in there that is more in line with the value of 4D research and the pipeline.Fingers crossed, but a long shot, fully admit that.
When it comes to a PE backed MBO - I think that would just add to a torrent of lawsuits BoD can fully expect I thinknif all this goes south. It makes the case even more compelling that it is not just incompetence that's behind all this.
We need to wait and hope. Really angry it's come to this.
To be clear, 4D BoD's incompetence (in my view) is simply legendary here. Never seen this level of incompetence before, never expected it.
And yes, things are looking really bleak but at least there is no need to offend/belittle genuine holders now who are still in shock and trying to stay upbeat and cope.
You never have all the information when you invest in a company (especially small biotechs). We all.made some assumptions... mine was that a CEO and BoD that have grown 4D impressively over the last 8 years would never give anyone excuse to call in administrators and would have contingencies in place to prevent this scenario. But because I can never be sure I invest in several biotechs on AIM and Nasdaq to manage risk. I have to admit 4D was in my opinion special as it had it all (on paper). A rare blend of a diverse pipeline, proprietary tech/innovation, commercially savvy CEO (former investment manager) and BoD, pharma links/partnerships.
And if you decided not to trust the leadership (and rightly so from we know now) and you sold before the crash - well done. Great call. Now try to be a decent human being and stop patronising people here please. And yes, Oncology biotech shorters are indeed scum - they are like vultures and company should have acted pre-emptively to keep them at bay but they are stills scum. Their actions have contributes to this, no doubt. But the main responsibility lies with the 4D leadership.
In terms of whether 0518 works or not... we don't know yet. I believe that Part A and B have produced a great signal to really give hope, and cancer patients really need that, especially at the most advanced stages of the disease.
Let's try to be civil here. Unless you are a shorter - in which case you are scum and feel free not to talk to me.
Sileng... I understand your anger, I am also extremely angry.. but the difference between shorters and BoD is in INTENT.
I think BoD made huge mistakes to get us into this position... but don't thinknit was their intent to crash 4D. I really don't think so.
Shorters, on another hand, are scum. They know what they're doing and are happy to do it. Their actions lead to people suffering and dying earlier. Yesterday's RNS is a proof of that And they are even proud of it.
Michael really hope you're right! I am just finding it very hard to believe that BoD is capable of any special moves that would see us out of the woods - after they have allowed us to get to this point. Very much hope to be wrong, promise you that :)
I suppose I am angry with myself for believing in 4D's BoD that, on paper, looked quite decent and certainly skilled enough to ensure that plane doesn't crash into the mountain.
Then again I was wrong once, so could be wrong again!!! Hope so!
And yes, we need some new faces in charge to restore confidence.
Cheers Porky... all we lost (there is still some chance we haven't) is money. Some of these cancer patients have just lost their last chance to have another 6-12 months with their families.
Not only that - microbiome drugs because of their excellent safety profile help patients on their death beds have a much more dignified/better tolerated end-of-life care.
I really hope 4D survive this. Hope dies last. If we don't hope it goes to someone with cash to pump into trials and get these treatments into hospitals ASAP.
To put my selfish investor hat on - I hope our patience pays off here and money is found.. Odds not looking great atm but a bit better than a few dyas ago I think (hope).
Fingers crossed.
Taverham... if company does go down (still the more likely scenario imo) then I am fairly confident there will be plenty of investors filing lawsuits. Phrasing an RNS to sound more optimistic/positive will not change that.
The only way I can see investors not going down the legal route is if the company gets out of administration... or a few parties get involved in a bidding war and company does get sold in a way that pays off investors (less likely imo).
If 4D somehow manages in the end to come out of administrationI believe there would need to be a different CEO and CFO in my opinion. I would actually suggest Duncan moved to some kind of a 'Chairman' role where he is involved 'from the rear'. He is still very important to the business, and has been instrumental in building the company and the existing partnerships. I currently see no value in what the new CFO has brought to the table, apart from being involved in possibly the worst investor meeting of all time (referring to the infamous Q&A session). Hope I am wrong.
We just need to sit and wait now and hope things go our way. I have no expectations at this point. Planning for the worst and hoping for the best.
Barry... actions have consequences. Shorting biotechs trying to save/prolong lives is not the same as shorting a weapons manufacturer. Anyone pretending it's all the same to them is just scum.
Apart from that I agree this is all primarily happening as a result of a series of bad decisions by the BoD imo. Had those mistakes not been made shorters wouldn't have been circling around like vultures.
It is just today's RNS that reminded me of the human cost of this car crash.
Shout out to all the shorters here who've been proud of shorting 4D - perhaps you should share the news that trials are being suspended with cancer patients who are about to die and are looking for treatments/compounds like 0518 to extend their time on this earth.
Without any intention of shifting blame from BoD's catastrophic mistakes - I have to say if you are shorting Oncology biotechs and running them into ground you are scum. You just are. Hope you never end up needing an Oncokogy treatment. Scum.
Porky... you expect professional footballers who've played for years at the highest level to know the basics when they run onto the pitch. Certainly expect them not to score own goals, maybe accidentally let one in (by mistake) but not a hat-trick.
On paper, 4D's BoD looked better than most. Unfortunately I see no reason why big pharma would invest with 4D's BoD now when they can for that same cash buy the entire company and put a competent CEO in charge.
'Organically possible'... ??? Not sure what happened there :)
If I knew the company was under different leadership I would take part in the placing (all off this is just purely hypothetical and not organically possible I believe).
The science is still very strong I think, obviously not every compound will be a winner and will not work probably for all indications but the platform is solid.
If I understood the notes from the AGM earlier. A bit like me not paying my mortgage and using the premises as a KGB safe house... and being shocked that Barclays want their money back???
OF are a lender, not a benevolent fund. That Q&A session (and the consequent sell-off) showed OF that PIs have very little faith in the 4D leadership.
The level of incompetence is staggering. And not just of one man, but the BoD. To organise a Q&A so bad that your lender decides to pull the plug. And then you're shocked about it even though you've clearly breached terms.
I admit I considered this BoD WAY MORE clued in, based on their background and experience. Actually, on paper, they look decent. But the result of their actions is shocking.
Oh btw, Nasdaq money's been well invested. Why would anyone want to bail 4D now? When they can buy the whole thing for peanuts?
At least they had the nerv to come in person and talk to investors today. I respect that. Also want to believe something can happen here... but don't think we should have high hopes. Let's wait and see.
Including the one re payrises??? :)
Thank you all for contributing with your views and action points since last Friday.
I will be following up this week with advisors to discuss my options. This company had plenty of options to ensure it never gets to this point.
One thing that I find incredible is that, according to 4D's RNS, OF meeting happened on 23rd and they went into administration on 24th. What kind of a contract allows the lender to close down business in 24 hours? Surely if company was put on notice previously- wouldn't that had to have been RNSd? Am I missing something?
How have company directors allowed the company to be at a mercy of a lender? When there was no raise last week of March (after the 0518 update) I assumed that BoD had money sitting somewhere and ready to go - surely you don't want to run you business at mercy of a lender if you have options? Mcap at that time was 150m+ and 40% dilution (or much less) would've been sufficient. As I have stated previously on several occasions you have to put faith, as investor, in BoD to steer the ship as many bits of info are not in the public domain but really puzzled here with the sequence of events and BoD 's actions (and the communication we received).
Finally I would like to encourage sharing of any feedback/legal advice people receive as there are a number of us who feel we have been let down. I have noticed several posters here sharing their feedback so far from the conversations with their advisors - many thanks.
For a company with such amazing science, how is it possible BoD have allowed this to happen?
This is the reason why we never invest all money in one biotech and try to have a diverse portfolio - because regardless of how amazing things might look, you never truly know what is going on.
Complete disbelief. Obviosuly we all knew this was a possible outcome... but I did not see this coming now, and put my faith in BoD having a contingency in case money is needed immediately. Every CEO I have ever dealt with would, I am confident of that - it appears 4D's BoD had no
plan B??? The first time any of the companies I have ever invested in has allowed it to come to this. What a disgrace.
There are broadly 2 types of biotech CEOs:
1) Scientists who develop a compound and then by default become CEOs or their own biotech. Sometimes very inexperienced in terms of developing the business end of the company, very rarely 100% clued in re financing/licensing negotiation etc. Need handholding regularly.
2) CEOs who've arrived from the business end of biotech (Duncan is meant to be one as a former investment manager). They understand and know how to deal with different stakeholders in order to keep the investment case exciting. The fact Duncan came from the business end of the sector was an additional selling point for me to.invest in 4D.
So when we invest we have to put faith also in the expertise of the people responsoble for navigating the company through difficult moments, and I know that much of the detail behind the discussions/negotiations never gets in the public domain so you have no options but to trust the leadership and their competence. I certainly did, I was wrong.
I am shocked this has happened. Now have no expectations to see a single.penny from this (I so hope.to be wrong but need to be realistic). Obviously I have had a considerable.investment here... I invest in several other biotechs as well but this is the one that had the potential to change pharma industry I believe. To be at the forefront of a brand new drug class unlocking imune systems response to a range of diseases. Now it will end up being scooped up for pennies. Outrageous.
We are hurting because we lost our cash here. But spare a thought for cancer patients who were supposed to potentially have their lives extended by 0518... who knows when they'll see the drug now?
Which brings me to shorters - some of them have come out to comment since Firday:
Your actions and profit taking have helped push small biotech to the brink, biotech that was showing (in stat sig terms) to help patients ont heir deaths beds. That is not an excuse for BoD's inaction and chaos ... but you have helped this outcome clearly. Well done.
To everyone here I hope we see some of our cash back... but equally remember the most important thing is health.
For the sake of all of us who have genuinely been invested in this company because of it's science and the potential to be a game changer in the fight against a number of diseases (most notably cancer) I really hope this is some big pharma getting involved.
Of course, we also want this for selfish reasons, and we all want to see return on investment - no pure good Samaritans here.But I think a lot of people (myself included) invested because 4D looked like being on the road to maybe achieving something truly special...
I have no idea which way this is gonna go... but hope sincerely that one way or another IP/trials continue to be worked on and 4D's scientific potential is fulfilled the way we all hoped it would be.
Good luck to us all!
You are very funny
Michael... I will not be able to attend AGM... two things I would ask them.. and it really puzzling me:
1. How big is the team (internally within 4D or externally if outsourced/contracted out) responsible for investor engagement, proactive outreach and effectively pitching 4D value proposition to relevant IIs/boutique funds etc. (in person, industry events, virtually) ? Who is responsible for the narrative of our value prop and for quantifying the opportunity to a range of investors (and not just the biopharma savvy ones)? Who is out there SELLING 4D, how strong is this team (headcount/experience) and what does the BoD thinknof their performance???
2. An example of processes in place to boost pharma engagement and SELL BLAUTIX. By 'sell' I mean licensing/partnership or fully being licensed out. How many pharmas (within Top100 pharma) have been actively engaged in discussions re Blautix partnership and how many are currently in negotiations spanning over more than 6 months (and which have been in touch over the last 30 days). Not asking for names, just numbers.
Science in my humble opinion is great at 4D, commercialisation efforts basically non-existent. That needs to be improved immediately (and drastically).
Just my opinion.