The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
HeresHopin... you hit the nail on the head here. I am sure there are people on this board who've sold, and are so keen now to see the stock go down as they wouldn't be able to cope with the stock potentially in time going 10, 20, 30x and them not only missing out on the growth - but also being down having sold at a loss. Tbh I understand that pain but doesn't justify their behaviour. One should try to live at peace with their decisions... I am at peace with the fact I might lose all my money here (would hurt me badly)... I am fully aware of that and the danger is real - but this investment for me is a very calculated risk. And definitely not the only biotech currently invested in.
Everything I post is just my opinion, not an expert or an advisor.
Bluebelly thanks... was considering to reply but couldn't be asked. Appreciate you explaining so people understand the difference between the profit and mcap. The point I was trying to make is that this is an extremely risky investment right now but with a lot of potential also if things re financing turn around.
Seems like people not invested in 4D but posting here now resort to personal attacks and discreditation. Wonder why?
A shame. This used to be a civilised place. For the record please read my earlier post, clearly stipulates the risks involved in investing any amount of money right now. You could lose it and relatively soon if things don't work out re 4D financing
10-20x from here is 300-600m mcap. With financing secured and increased interest of IIs (due a potential likelihood of licensing agreements/TO, Blautix partnetship/commercialisation agreement, etc.)... I believe this mcap is possible in 12-18 months. I do. But not advising anyone that this is in any way certain, as I am not an expert or advisor. That so far has been made very clear.
Not sure ehat QAnon is saying, don't have time to read that nonsense same as I don't have the time to post on boards of stocks I am not invested in.
Good luck all genuine investors here.
Leave the troll alone. Just don't feed him oxygen, will go away. Imagine if I had the time to post on all the boards of stocks I am not invested in, just to tell people it's all doom and gloom (as if genuine investors haven't been noticing the share price recently). Insane. Good luck all genuine holders.
I believe that for those entering now the situation is simple...
You invest £5k now and there is chance you might lose it, company is in danger.
However... mcap could also be 10-20x in 12 -18 months in my opinion if finances are OK and the trials continue to deliver.
So it's down to you and your risk tolerance.
Just my opinion, not an expert and not offering advice.
Magmanus... 'management second to none'... that is funny.
I am normally pro-Duncan but yesterday was a scarring experience. I do think he deserves a lot of credit for everything over the years, but needs some help (if company can't present he should get me.involved :) ). I am confident I wouldn't have crashed the SP by 45%
Just my opinion, not an expert/advisor clearly (and perhaps a masochist as a 4D holder)
Thanks guys... Good to see I am not the last man standing.
This will continue to be painful for a while I think, but I had a huntch/gut feel the presentation was going to be bad (based on previous experience).
But could not see nearly 45-50% wipes of mcap, assumed maybe a 10-15% drop but then a gradual comeback. Yes they are horrible presenters but there are several avenues to potential cash... surely not at a stage where people think going bust is a certainty? I mean it is definitely an option, but not a foregone concluion perhaps.
I am heavily in red and have never seen a bigger disparity between scientific know-how and business acumen within one company. Unless there is a plan of some sort behind all this (I am aware how desperate this maybe sounds). We don't know. What we do know is that they looked like broken men yesterday, and PIs did exactly what they normally do.
In case someone is hoovering this shares and a TR1 arrives over the coming days? What then? Onviosuly that's me speculating but don't think it's a curtain call scenario quite yet here. Hope to be right.
All I see are green boxes and new names I have never seen on this board before. Thank you for your service.
Yesterday was a complete catastrophe. Pearl Harbour. An insight into how terrible 4D are when it comes to presenting/selling the opportunity. Painful to watch, looks like they were not too keen to make an impression there is a plan in order to amplify the need for 100% dilution...? perhaps that backfired as it made scared PIs run for the hills?
They dont know their audience...Fact is that PIs invested in 4D are not real investors. Complete panic, got scared for their pennies and bailed... I admit watching the presentation was painful, but company needed it's investors backing to get us out of this mess... most of them bailed to go invest in some mining company, as presenters looked lost at sea. And the blame sits steictly, in my view, with 4D for not realising that their audience yesterday needed to walk away from the presentation full of confidence, happy to hold as the opportunity is potentially absolutely huge. Instead company delivered a presentation almost as if they had an II ready to hoover up (just my wishful thinking) shares and they couldn't care less whether PIs wanted to hold or not. Trust has now been broken I feel.
Just my opinion, not an expert/advisor... just a PI.
Sileng you're just being greedy now.
Michael... a very sober assessment.
It is astonishing to me that a company conducting trials which are showing clinical benefit to people on their death beds is going through a financial uncertainly like this.
Having dilution as an option (,even at 100%) is necessary in my opinion, always said that, and we need to ensure company keeps the lights on... once that is secured we need changes on the BoD (even at the highest level) . Or Duncan should not be the face of 4D any longer. Also, company's inability to attract IIs, considering the clinical trials successes, is legendary in my opinion - someone is required there to produce results, to deliver.
But for the time being i feel we need to put the anger aside and look at this company's pipeline value, what they have achieved and believe that big pharma will not just sit idle if trials are continuing to deliver good results (big pharma are also desperate for M&As and new licensing agreements for their pipelines, they wouldn't be just doing 4D a favour)
As an investor I am holding for now, but yesterday was a painful experience and I am now assessing my position daily. What hasn't changed is that one positive news re finances would catapult the SP very quickly.
Good luck to all of us still in the breach.
Sunnyca... he was going for the Brad Pitt unshaved look. Presumably advised by his IR that would buy some points with the ladies. Seems like it hasn't worked.
He scheduled the meeting to sell the 100% dilution and remind us he's invested his own cash in 4D(he says 2m), also to remind us he worked previously on selling a compound to UCB so not his first rodeo.
Also to remind us that biotech market is apparently in a downturn for those who hadn't noticed. So lots of excuses, and PIs were expecting some kind of plans and promises today (equally a silly expectation).
I think if someone asked me to deliver a presentation with a mission to tank the SP by 20% (while note delivering any material news) - I would struggle. Don't think I would succeed.
Unfortunately 4D have managed to do exactly that. Expecting a bounce when the dust settles but still an incredible drop caused by excuses, stuttering and absolute absence of any kind of an attempt to project/inspire confidence.
I understand that Duncan is not great at presenting... but maybe that's why he SHOULDN'T PRESENT???
Just my opinion.
And after the presetation this morning who could blame them? ... somebody has started buying though I reckon.
This is not getting any easier. Really upset with myself for expecting anything from the presentation today.
Incredible. Why organise a Q&A if, apart from excuses, there is nothing to say?
Tomorrow needs to be about the business end, not about the science.
Crusty ... yes, it supposedly only works when company has the potential and the management with skills/experience/contacts to see that potential through.
I am in but very worried, hope we here some positive hints tomorrow.
Well, that's easier said than done but appears those with conviction and guts to live by this rule occasionally win and win big. Naturally on the proviso that the company invested in has genuine potential.
We just need to hope 4D get their finances in order because the potential is truly exciting in my opinion. But can't blame those that sold and bailed, the journey so far has been painful (to say the least). Hope the company delivers a confident message tomorrow... no stuttering and tentativeness, with more clear focus on the commercial aspect and the potential behind 4D pipeline. KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE. Audience are private investors who need to buy into the plan, need to understand true commercial potential of the pipelne and and believe that things are going to plan. We need at least a hint that the plan is coming together (they may not be able to talk specifics obvioulsy) but if so believe that market will react. Good luck to us all.
Scrambler I think we're quite aligned in terms of expectations here, naturally all on the condition of finances being secured and the trials continuing to deliver. Obviosuly difficult thinking about that upside when PIs are selling in fear, SP is tanking every day and it's all gone Chateauneuf du Pape but he who dares wins Rodders!
Scrambler... I think TO will eventually happen if trials continue to deliver, but when.. ? No idea. Not counting on it in the short term.
Whether some pharma decide to try their luck with an offer now... time will tell. They could, it's peanuts for them, and they are sitting on cash. We just don't know.
In terms of what I think this company is worth if financing is sorted... and trials are still showing efficacy.. I am even more bullish than you. But I never share that here as people would consider me insane probably :)
Just my opinion, not an expert or advisor.