Member Info for Pelle

Hi F AHL

Yeah, oil price is what it is but lets wait and see for the hedge and OPEC. We havent started 2019 yet:-)
Agree about avanza:-)
Was it some problems now for foreigners in UK due to Brexit?
Just think I read something about it.

Where is close Malmö?

Hi F_AHL

Interresting view of it. I think I saw your calculations before at Avanza also.
We are also soon in 2019 and EBITDA of around 1100 milj with reducing debt.

Sooner or later market cap needs to start increase

24+ ?
Lets add the 500 milj today instead. Its more fair:-)

Hi MO

High debt and fear of cash call I guess.
And seems one main owner also lost money on other buisiness so unsure if he have founds to support.

This was interresting, they still aiming for the Kraken 50k 2019.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/48094.jsp

Earnings forecast. We keep our FY18-20 forecasts unchanged in anticipation of future earnings performances supported by Armada Olombendo, Kraken and TGT. Final acceptance of FPSO Kraken was on 4th Sept in accordance with the amended agreement 2 (AA2) signed on 27 Aug. This development would see the group recognizing higher earnings from Kraken moving forward, as production is increased significantly to achieve its target of 50,000bbls/day in 2019. As of 3QFY18, the Group’s orderbook stands at c. RM21bn in firm contracts with additional optional extensions of up to RM10.3bn.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/5210.jsp

I only have this link since some years

Hello

Anyone following Bumi Armada?
Seems they have bigger debt problem and crisis.
What would happen if bankrupt?

Hi Squif

Yes, 54-55k until Oct seems realistic in update. We dont know Malaysia production.
Magnus alone, is low Jan-Sept due lower months when starting the new well.
Jan-Sept I get Magnus average 13k
Oct-Dec should be around 18K
Year average 14,3
H2 average 15,2

Looking at prospect page 173 estimate
H2 2018 around 16k
2019 around 17k

Hi Squif

I get Jan-Sept 54,5k, only slightly higher then H1.
Adding 75% Magnus Jan-Sept around 64k.
Assuming 10k Malaysia July-Sept

Hi E,

Maybe AB doing his share to reduce supply glut while the others so far just talk.

Kraken was 31k H1 and that included a really low March.
Excluding Kraken March then H1 looks better then H2 so far.

Lets see next week if we get update, I assume atleast something have to be possitive as AB and others loaded up with extra shares.
I suspect it might be the hedge for next year and Magnus will do its job also.

Good morning

There OGA sept producion figures now.
Not great. I get it to around 54,5 k including Alba and 10k Malaysia.
Expected more from Magnus
Kraken bit on low side also on expectations

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article63664.html

Hi Romaron,

Yes, company was totally diffrent when this 65 usd and Pik was implemented.
Then it was real crisis.
I would assume enq would like to pay the bond even below 65 usd and they can.
all the way down to 50 usd they can pay interrest but not reduce debt.

I was checking this bond and it seems volume is very low, last trade 2 days ago.
So then it can be bit jumpy I guess.

But 15% return as you mention is great in these days
If I had money laying around I would invest

Maybe delay of update is because Magnus deal, maybe it will be done at 1 Dec instead of 1 Jan

Welcome onboard and wish you nice trip

Thanks E,

ok, at least OGA data Sept will be interresting, specially see Magnus

Good morning,

Yes, Lundins own 22%. Its great company but marketvalue is there after also around 20 times more then Enq.
I owned it before. and could consider buy back if this rise here.

Where is the update today?

Hi Mandrill

You mean Hurricane? I dont know details but I see they dont have debt.
Enquest didnt prove yet they can reduce debt. H1 2018 was weak due to low hedge and didnt reduce debt.
Now we are looking forward to reduce debt H2 2018 and continue 2019
Then valuation will rise here also

Hello

Yes exactly Kraken, thats why Hedges.
Also company is totally different next year compared with 2-3 years ago.
Much higher production and less investment

Yday I looked through some old operational updates 2014/2015 and back then they hedged 8-10 milj full year.
That would equal 15-20 milj 2019. Hope AB done it and we can just rest.

Will be very interresting tomorrow if update comes

Hello

I re-worked file little bit and now included the Magnus vendor loan also.
And used some inputs from the Moody's report also
They treat the vendor loan as debt.
Therefor I believe they included reduction of it as FCF also.
2018 FCF 270 milj
Operations: 140 milj
Others: RI,Thristle,Bumi 60 milj
Reduction of 25% Magnus vendor loan 70 milj

2019 FCF 500 milj
Operations: 400 milj
Reduction of 75% Magnus vendor loan 100 milj

I have bit higher production numbers then Moody's conservative 65k.
This will become a stable FCF company next year unless oil crash further.

https://ufile.io/tvid8