Member Info for Pelle

Hi E,

What is your overall impression of the update yday?
You seems to have a balanced view of things.

Looking into next year, lets assume FCF 350 milj + 100 milj reduction Magnus vendor loan.
Will that be enough to lift the share if oil at 65-70?

Hello

Well, I have no clue what's going on with Kraken.
What I find strange is that we had two of the best prodution months Jan/Feb and then maintainance stop in March.
And after that lower levels.
Guidance for next year 30-35k, can hope that includes another maintainance stop and fix of the problems.
Best indicator for me is that AB and director's bought additional shares, so I see limited risk production would get even worse.

Now they also cleared the woredrobe from skeleton and things can get better next year

Thanks for the links. I hope AB sees something good we don’t see yet.

Hi L3, I can only read first part free on the web. Would it be possible for you somehow upload the article? I will check if anything in Swedish newspaper

Hi DD,

I think its good to have balanced view on this and I admit I been too optimistic of the productions levels.
And I was dissapointed on the volume and horizon of the hedge's.

Can you please point out the possitive and negative pieces in the update today.
As you see it

Hi L3

Well, my prediction was after I read the update today I have to admit.
Its you who was spot on!
Now we know, and they already told us another round of basically same workover next year.

The 65milj repayment Nov must be as you say. 50 milj from cash on hand and 15 milj from FCF basically.

The only possivite now is Magnus and that will work on the debt.
If market liked this update it will be even better in future with a faster debt reduction.
Lets pray also for a good Opec meeting.

I will also consider offload shares in next 6-12 months if we spike up

Hi L3

Yes, I said 54,3 so slighly over estimated but close enough:-)
I remember this topic
Today was a mixed bag as Romaron said I think.
Production: I was hoping all these fixes would give better effect. Your pessimistic view was right.
Next year will be basically the same fixes again and result same again.

Hedge, less then I expected

Dept decrease, so its 201 milj since H1. 147 milj comes from Right Issue and Thristle option.
Thats 54 milj generated by operations in 4 months and I would say good oil prices.
Less then I expected even if I adjusted for the lower prod.

So that leaves us with basically only the 62,5% Magnus doing the debt reduction.

Its going in right direction but I am not sure if its fast enough.
Maybe we soon need to do another Magnus deal that can be exercised in 2 years.
Or do a merger with other company and benefit from Enquest tax position.

Good evening E

Just come home after work..and trying take all in
Can you please explain the Q1 hedge?
If we assume oil is at 65, we only get the 70 floor or?

three-way collar options for c.3.0 MMbbls of oil in place for the first quarter of 2019 at an average floor price of c.$70/bbl and the call spread between c.$78/bbl and c.$84/bbl

Hi E, Exactly, hedged more. If that turned out wrong and prices went even higher then just continue hedge further horizon. That would be safe way to go

Hi E, Ok, thanks. But Moodys includes additional 400 milj vendor loan as debt also at year end. And if I remember correct in Telefon call at H1 some banker not sure if it was Jefferies said they calculated debt actually go up at year end. Must say I am very disappointed on the hedge for 2019

Hi Fernan, Are you sure they didn’t pay the 100 milj for Magnus at 4 th Oct when they exercised it?

Hi MO

Thanks, yes I also read it few times:-)
Agree RI was costly, hope thats the last one or I have to be more creative then AB when it comes to funding

Hello

Anyone trading based on these signals?
Looks like they get it right most of the times
I just recently got this link from other Enq forum

https://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=ENQ.L

Good evening

Anyone have a rough idea of the business size of this SV Terminal?
Can we expect anything from this 15% stake?

Hi Mikko

I agree with you:-) Soon we know

Hi MO

seems like its leaving or.
Its strange with this low production for several months now. Lower then H1 if you exclude March
I hope some re-work is ongoing and that explains it.
Will be interresting see the update this week.

Hi Mikko and others

I thought bit about this that Magnus cant be hedged.
But I think they can do it on the sideline someway and return BP cashflow based on non-hedge.
Or I am missing something?

Squif, Let’s hope the update tomorrow! I am really keen on seeing the hedge for next year.

Hi Squif, I think back then 2014/15 we didn’t have dept and market saw Alma and Kraken near in future. And maybe a faster oil price recovery. So it’s difficult compare. One way I can understand our low valuation today because we didn’t show any debt reduction yet on printed paper. This will happen now when H2 will be reported. Even confirmed by Moody’s. 2019 with reasonable hedge and oil price we will reduce debt in a size equal to our market cap. Then I am sure we will out perform many other oil company.

Hi F AHL

ok, I see.
1 GBP 2019 would be something:-) Long walk but not impossible
I also started invest here 2015 something and adding over the years.
Way to early looking back at it now. Now would be a dream moment start invest here it feels like.

Interresting week now and next year to come
Good luck