Member Info for Pelle

Hello

I found this bit old article.
It will be very interesting times ones US oil production increases cant match world oil demand growth.
We might soon be there.
2018 US added 2 milj barrels, think FC for 2019 is around 1 milj growth.
It will be more and more difficult increase on these high levels.

Lets hope for recovery first of all to 60-65 range in January

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Whats-Keeping-Investors-Away-From-Energy-Stocks.html

Hi DB

If you know these traders or possibly one of them please tell them its time change direction now.
Or move on to some other share, sure there others with similiar market value they can play with.

Hi L3

End year net debt, I get to 1870 (end oct after 100 milj for Magnus) minus around 20 milj from operation and another 10 from Bumi.
So its 1840 milj end year.
2019 capex I assume same as 2018, 250 milj. Bills are spread over several months from DC4 with 6-9 months delay after work done.
Opex, I assume will go down to 21 usd due to Magnus.

RCF due in April, 175-65=110 milj remaining
Estimate 30 milj FCF Nov/Dec
So they need another 80 milj FCF in Q1. This will be tight to make it from FCF, I get that they need to get around 65 usd ( oil price realised) Ofcourse they can use cash on hand also so its no problem short term.

It feels bit pointless calculating details when oil flying around -6% several days and up 8% another day.

Hopefully there some spikes in oil price to 80 usd next year and I really hope Enq then hedge alot with swaps.

Hi January and KO

Looks better with oil price now in evening, feels better to see that it can kick back up 6% also.
I will think more over next days.

KO, around those target prices I will also retire from day job.

Hi January

I been thinking today and maybe its wise sell 10-20% holding here to reduce risks a bit.
Not that it will go "tits up" even at these oil prices but its just consuming barrels in place and debt remains same.
And this during enquest probably highest production years 19/20 unless they add some new field.
Last days further drops in oil and more and more talk about world economy looking weak made me think how fast we can expect oil to climb.
I think it needs either one of these to climb
1. Over compliance of the current opec deal already in first months of the year
2. New opec meeting with even stronger cuts
3. stronger sanction on Iran Q2, none or limited waivers

There other oil stocks come down a lot in price also and they much more safe
I like these at swedish market Tethys and Lundin Petroleum
Also been thinking of another share outside oil, Oriflame that I made good money on before.

its harder and harder to understand whats going on.
Not even Chistmas evening they let us a rest and smile.

To be honest I would not call it a good year.
Kraken dissapointed big time, with better production there RI would not have been needed.
I didnt expect 50k but 35-40k would have done it.
We had 40k in February and I cant understand why after that we not be able come close to it again.

They could also atleast stayed consistent with hedging during this autumn. (50% , H1 2019)
Even though I would have liked them to put more hedges with higher floor and longer period.
To safely clear debt and not gamle for even higher prices.

RI and Magnus is a saver for Enquest now and really well done by AB doing this deal 2 years ago during the most difficult times.

I really hope 2019 will be better year, but its really in the hand of opec+ now

Thanks Gkb
Good to know.

Now english football time at tv, and bets are on. 3 milj EUR pot!
Could compensate bit for last months here

How serious and good is this Motley fool?
I am in Sweden so no clue how its considered in UK

Yeah, agree unexpected will happen. Lets hope its for once a possitive.

Didnt Saudi last years also put such a budget?
Lets hope they strong on the cuts directly in January as Russia said they need few months to wind down.
Seems like cuts needs a overcompliance to really lift oil

Not sure about this with the bonds.
But if I check bonds on London stock exchange it says PIK
ENQUEST PLC 7.00% 15/04/2022 PIK TOGGLE
Its good, then they can pay more back on the higher interest rate loan's

Dont know where this article got 100k from.
And Kraken never become 50k but we now instead have Magnus too.
Combined they basically the same as Kraken should have been but now with better production profile that can keep these production levels for more years.

Get well and take care.
Good time to switch of and get some rest, we all look forward to better 2019.

Your welcome Jan, To sell now in panic it’s most often very bad decision. We both should consider let some shares go at 40-60 p range hopefully next year. And balance with some shares in other sectors

Hi January, Know the feeling, bit more then 1 milj shares here. But as you said before Enq crisis was much worse back in 2016. I think there a lot values here just debt hanging over it. If necessary they can even sell assets. I guess a sale of Kraken for example would clear most debt. Then we still sit in a cash cow that generates something around our market cap today. And Oil price will turn around one day

I went up extra early and had big breakfast to be full of energy for this exciting day. And now you say, they sleeping! After twitching 2 months will be nice with some Christmas holidays

Haha, I was thinking same. Most calm day ever

Yes I know but not sure if I should comment it here:-)
Lets leave it there

Haha, I thought so because you mention SEK price:-)

isnt news on Tv always surpressed? ( Even in Uk these days with brexit)

What specific news you refer to?

Hi KO

I doubt that strategy very much, you mean Opec will not cut production next year?
They already tried kill shale and it didnt work, it would take years and not months to do that.

Hi gkb,

yes, very sad now but we should be happy that RI went through at the time it did.
Now would be more difficult do it.
Magnus adds a lot free cashflow.

So your swedish too?

Yes, I am sure there will be moments during next year to unload some shares at 40-50p.
AB never rest so maybe something structual happens next year.
Maybe AB and some others puts joint bid on it.
Hard to see someone totally external buys it, as its a many old fields.
Maybe merge with with other company would be possible.

One day something will happen I am sure