Member Info for Pelle

F_AHL, I hope too your right.
Hope this makes russia and Saudi act faster on cuts.

I never experienced this crazy market before

Some people talk about bankrupt here but we far from that.
Not even if oil stays at this level all next year. They will be able do breakeven and do capex 250 milj usd.
No payback at debt though.

It would be very interesting know whats going through AB's mind now

Hi January, I agree with you, we just need sit this out now. Company is in better shape then last years. But it could have been even better with 5-10k more production or more hedge and higher level. Hopefully oil prices start recover from early spring

Hi Romaron

Yes, everything is very complex and we turning every stone to find something.
Your right many companies go through difficult times now and swedish Oil companies also lost about 30% market value since Oct. And they are in much better condition then Enq.

I hope one day we can experience the opposite of beeing smashed by political things.

I doubt that AB or his family trust are able to do it alone.
They only hold is it 10-13% Enquest.
And they probably need put a premium valuation to convince the other 90%

Good evening

I mention before about this broker in Sweden anonymous that influence the direction of enquest.
Now I got a free trial 1 month of www.brokerstats.se

This broker
mid june to End Aug they net bought 12 milj shares.
mid oct to today they net sold 14 milj shares.

Do you see any similar in London?

Hi Romaron

Its interresting but I am not into details at all on Faroe, can see they debt free.
Do you know what assets (size) they have producing and project (size) for future?

Clearly there must be a lot hidden values in Enquest if it can be utilized correct.
What is the normal oil company profit tax in UK? 30-40%?
And we have 3 bilj tax free position.

I assume if someone buys Enquest with the combined production they can utilize the 3 bilj fast.
and sell of the assets they dont want to keep.
Or if Enquest merge with other company.

As I wrote before with current oil price paying back loans 200 milj/year and also consuming 10 % of oil in place doesnt sound good to me.

Things needs to go faster or different way

Thanks January

Wish you nice weekend too!

Hi January

Haha, sounds like fun holiday. Maybe we all should do that instead of the 60 p party.
Its hard to see this go " tits up" few monhs after RI Magnus, director buy's and some FCF.
Looking at the 1 year / 3 year graf there been massive ups and down.
This broker anonomous in Sweden clearly influence. now they sold for 1-2 months and today net sold 2 milj shares.
I wonder how many they have?

I hope history repeats and soon we go up, I will try offload some then also because these swings influence life too much. I wonder hows AB's sleep these days too.

Hi January

Yes, it will probaly be good profit in some months.
But we really need higher oil price for this to become more interresting.
Or something else needs to happen.
Better kraken performace
Take over bid from other company
Merge with other company to utilize tax credit ( problem there is our low market valuation)
Another Magnus deal

Hello, Another way to see it with 2019 figures 50 usd oil, can’t pay down the credit loan 60 usd oil, makes 200 milj for pay down credit loan But paying back 200 milj/year of 1800 milj is too slow and consumes 24-25 milj barrels. So we consume almost 10% of the barrels in place and reduce debt 10%. Doesn’t cut the mustard Another value could be the 3 bilj tax credit. It must be worth a lot if it can be utilised

Hi F, I have slightly lower EBITDA 735 milj On your FCF level it will also disappear around 300 milj finance cost and leasing cost Kraken. I still can’t digest they didn’t hedged a lot at 80 for 12-24 months Then they would clear most debt safely in 2 years. But maybe it’s boring being safe

I hope winter and spring is not worse then this autumn.
Need to pray for oil price recovery or that AB have something good to pull out of his pocket we dont know about yet.

Judge yourself

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXiSafSqXAY

Good evening Romaron

Yes, the is very much geopoliticts. Did you see the friendly greetings of putin and saudi at G20 video?

Oil price is surprisingly flat at 60 last 3 weeks, it will most likely not stay that way.
My guess is up over the next months unless a bigger slow down in global ecomomy.

If we hit 80 usd in Q1 I will forgive Enq for beeing worried few months with low hedge.
2020 and forward can be really fun oil prices, I have read many reports that there will be more demand then supply and I believe so to sooner or later.

Hi Romaron

Maybe this answer to your question

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Came-Up-Short-Heres-What-They-Should-Do.html

I think Saudi and Russia have some good agreement under the table also not to upset Trump.

I think futures always flat (give or take few % and time frame )
Correct me if I am wrong someone

Hi TW, Yes, but do you want them to hedge at 60 now for Q2? Unless they didn’t inform us about all hedging done in last update that would be the case. I was checking some reports on PMO back in early 2018 and around that time they hedged 1-2 years into the future 20-30 % volume. They were early in 2018 so they only got around 60-65 usd something. If you look on there reports around jan-March I think you find it

Hi Romaron, With underlying production its not about financial trading and “ having a punt”. As long long as you stay within your production levels. Its about securing future cash flow in my opinion With your reasoning, they should not work with hedge at all.

Thanks E, I hope they use that strategy next time if we hopefully reach 80 again. Being at current 60 usd, you think they choose to not hedge anything for Q2? Do think there any chance that they already had more hedge in place that they gave information about in last update? I think next update not so good on debt side as 100 milj payment to BP. Then they might have chosen to keep further good news about more hedge in 2019. To weigh up the next update.

Hi, If I understand it correctly it doesn’t cost much if use swap contracts. Cost was like 1 usd first 3 months, 2-3 usd 6-12 months out. Using this type of hedge your fixed to that level. In sept/Oct it was possible hedge all 2019 at 80 but they choose another strategy and hedged with floor at 70 but still keep upside for Q1. I have a link at home computer that I think E send before.

I read an article some time ago saying its very few short times price settling around that range historically. I hope we reach above 80 sometime next year and then they hedge a bigger part on that level. So we safely can work down the debt