Member Info for Pelle

Hello Chilting

There must be something else AB thinks will be good in future
Friday we might know more:-)

Hi Chilting

was it around 60 days production?
I must say its really low end result for the owrkover they had unless there some specific reason

Yes AB is confident about next year. Remember he picked up 5 milj extra shares after RI also. And some other smaller buy last months from other directors. Hedge should be good as they confident

Thats good news!

Hi Squif

Yes, I agree with KO there.
Hope we can get back in the 75 range early next year.
I do belive AB have hedged well, more the usual.
As there been a great moment to safely secure a huge profit for next year, why take chances and try go even higher?

Hi Squif

I dont think anyone here know's.
Last Nov update says
§ Hedging of c.4 million barrels in place for H1 2018, at an average of c.$59/bbl.

I dont know if they do it in one shot or month by month and extend horizon
I would be suprised if they dont have atleast 50% volume at 75 usd H1 2019

Evening MO,

Thanks for update:-)
Very interesting with Alma, its these bonuses that will generate FCF.

Have you calculated any prod estimates for Enq for July to Aug?

Hi MO,

Nothing new on tanker horizon?
How many days now since last one at Kraken and Alma?

I thought more about the Moody’s figures and if I remember correct they treated the vendor loan also as debt. And reduction of it then is from FCF Then they do that also for the 25%. Then 2018 free cash flow 270 milj is reasonable. 140 from operation 60 from thristle,RI,Bumi 70 from reduction vendor loan

Hi Weny, Yeah, bit too many shares we hold now after last 2 years capital injections. In fact my only share now:-) I believe it will become good now with finally free cash flow around the corner even at these oil prices. Let’s hope for good update soon and solid hedge for next year

Hi Jan Oh, you want total isolation on the island😆 Hope they don’t let people vote about it here.

Where in Sweden? I am from Malmö. Without Magnus I think it would taken more then 2-3 years extra. During so long time frame would start see declines in Kraken prod also. I think they will pay back the 1 bilj RCF loan. Keep the bonds and kraken ring fenced loan. Then maybe pay dividends with 50% cash flow and reinvest other half

Hi Smalltrader. I am not into details at PMO. But looking at page Marketscreener and financial sheet with I found in past reasonable for Enq. Enq will reduce debt 1,1 bilj vs PMO 0,74 bilj. In next 2 years. And Enq have a lower market cap.

Hi Weny Are you swedish also? Yes, Jan free cashflow will increase. Consider enq get 66 usd /barrel at hedge. And prod 62k end this year to 75 including all Magnus Casflow should go from 20 milj usd/month to around double. Its because 25 % Magnus paid of end this year. After that cash flow to Enq. And counting with 50% of the 75% Magnus also effective from January. That’s why they get increased cash flow next year. Also cost per barrel will go down at bit next year. End Nov operation update will be interest. See if they manage increase prod vs H1 And hedge remaining 2018 and 2019.

And what happen now?
Prices skyrocket!

Hi E,

but I assume they will not use that PIK in next year unless we go down another 10-15 usd
As breakeven for cashflow is lower next year

Crazy how climate changed in 1 month.
Hope they soon can turn it around
And 2020 many believe in supply shortage

Hi Squif

Maybe, I am not sure.

Anyway I think its good numbers and next year should be great if oil doesnt colapse.
Have the 25 % Magnus paid of
50% of the 75% Magnus
Malaysia pre sold oil paid of in May

would be nice if share can start follow also

500 pages doesnt sound that much considering Enq managed to make 500 pages about Magnus deal.

Hi Fernan

I also get it to around 140-150 milj FCF H2 + 60 mij from Thristle,RI,Bumi.
Anyway its great if they manage reduce debt around 200-270 milj.

why you say?
Repayment of Magnus initial 25% acquisition price and other provisions: US$ 10 million (50% of the current liability at June 30, 2018)

I have estmated Magnus 25% will clear all the remaining 39 milj vendor loan in H2 2018.
About 7-8 milj/month FCF back to BP ( aug only half that amount)