Member Info for Pelle

Good news!
Any link?

https://www.di.se/nyheter/efter-oljeraset-irak-och-saudiarabien-vill-stabilisera-marknaden/

Iraq and Saudi will work together to stabilize market

Hi

I agree the feeling is not good now but I doubt we will see continous free falling oil prices like some years ago.
Saudi and Russia worked that back and they wont let that slip away in couple of weeks.

About hedges, AB and Enq made good calls before to play safe and even saved the company.
I feel quite sure that they hedged 50% H1 2019 to maybe 75 usd. Thats standard pratice they done last years.
My hope and belife is that they have extended that horizon even more now when they had chances to secure a nice 2019.
I looked at PMO and they already in early spring put hedges for like 1-2 years ahead at levels like 65.
Witch might have been early looking back at last months.
Anyway I think it would been foolish if Enq didnt put extended (+ 6-18 months) hedges during last months.
Only down side would have been if oil price went even further up, but then they could have used that to put even more hedges at higher price for extended period. And we would clear all debt in 2 years.

I trust we will have a good update at end of Nov with increased prod and good hedges for next year.

Hello

How many days since last one now?

Hi E,

Sorry, your probably right about the taxes.
I think what I picked up somewhere or added 1+1 is that
Magnus is more attractice to Enquest then for BP due to Enq 0 tax.
Thats partly why Enq got good deal. Ofcourse the low oil price back then is bigger part.
Does it make sense?

Thanks for looking into spreedsheet, I already made some changes today after thinking about the Malaysia mercuria loan and just calculated it as 5 milj usd/month of from free cashflow.

What is your estimates now for free cashflow?
H2 and 2019?

Hello Ajes

Yes, agree about OZ.
About the tax, what I understood its part of the good deal enquest got with BP that both can benefit from Enq no tax position.

Yes, can use H1 2018 as referense for rough calculations as it was flat.
Then just add upsides.

I really hope they dont come with more suprises now and just grind down that debt.
Then share should be more stable and rise

Hello Ajes

I calculated just based on the 50/50 split of the 75% + 25% should start come to Enquest from 2019.
so it equal 62,5%
If calculate based on your below steps, ( I think same as Fernan said)
Then I think Enq total share for 2019 went up to 73-74%

Have you done any calculations yourself for Enq total 2019?

your welcome L3

Potential here from these levels on Enq must be huge with Magnus included.
I can see why markets is sceptical, no cash generated H1. Bad history..
Huge debt and you see how sensitive we are to drop in prod or oil price.
Much less sesitive 2019 with Magnus included. You can easy test this in excel file
If nothing really bad happens here reward must be huge.

Its first time I make such file so it will be interesting see outcome how close it is for H2.
Did Fernan give any H2 cashflow forecast?

Hi L3

Cost of finance I tried pick up from H1 report and multiply with 2.
Looking at Fernan file he had about same including repayment on leasing.

No cashflow Oil, is for Magnus deal.
BP gets now all cashflow of the 25% and next year 50% of the 75% share.
And I also tried make same logic for the Malaysia pre sold oil.
Malaysia part is more tricky, with pre sold, goverment part and Fernan also had extra tax.
Thats why I had to calibrate sales figures with 5% down.

Sept to Dec prod I dont know but can make assumption based on added wells and reading the prod data released today.
With Alma and Magnus on the way up for Sep-Dec I choose to add 4k from 58k Aug
If you estimate a drop its your choice.Anything can happen ofcourse.
Maybe even Fernan revise to 58k now with that confirmed in Aug prod.

Haha MO, lets keep it secret:-)
Does the timing fit your calculations?

Thanks MO

Its small then so I dont consider it:-)
When do you expect next Alma tanker?

Hello

Anyone remember what the transaction/administration cost for right issue was?

Hi L3

Here is my file

https://ufile.io/mspy4

Different from Fernan but similar result, I estimate higher prod and lower opex then him
Please let me know what you think

Hi L3

I will check if I can manage it.
My file is completely different layout vs Fernan.
I am not proffesional on this but it was my way build file
But I tested vs Fernan file and result in mine just 10% higher so close enough I think

Hello All

Based on today's Aug prod figures I have updated excel file
July 53,5k
Aug 58k
Sept to Dec 62k with increases on Magnus and Alma
With average sales price oil 72 H2
I get free cashflow from operation H2 140 milj + 60 from (Right issue,Thristle,Bumi)
2019 with prod 75k, oil price sold 70, capex 200 milj, opex 20/barrel
I get free cashflow around 650 milj

If they manage execute this and market conditions similar and reduced debt with 850 milj end next year I assume
shareprice must be more then double. It have taken out a lot of risk with the high debt.

Drivers
November update with increased prod July-Oct
RNS Magnus deal completed
Full year report with 2019 guidance
Half year report H1 2019

Hi E

Yes, we should be somewhere above 60k by now.

I smell good news soon, two directors Laurie and John buying their first shares, I assume they see weekly prod figures and hear all news.
AB adding extra 5 milj shares
Enquest rise today

Morning E

Thanks for Alba info,

Yes, it makes sense about Magnus. And same procedure next year.
2020 full speed and that why average is much higher in prospect for 2020

In general these Aug numbers is one step in right direction

Hi L3

I wouldnt worry too much about that Magnus decrease in Aug.
It must be some maintenance or other work before adding new well.
Was low in April also

Maybe MO or any other, have some ideas about it

Good morning, There new data for Aug now, I get Enq part. H1 44k July 42,5k Aug 47k Magnus was low, Alma started increase Sept Oct should see further increase at Alma and Magnus

Hi E,

Its some light in the tunnel:-)
With some smaller prod increases and good hedges, outlook for next year can be really good.
Even if our mood been low last weeks