Member Info for Pelle

Yeah and it’s conservative numbers I am not surprised by the FCF. But market cap is a big riddle to me. Think we get that right also once numbers start to be reported

Good morning L3 and Squif

Everyone up early:-)

hedge, I think AB/JS have done it good in past. Maybe H1 lookes bad but it was needed due to our finacial situation.
It you look further back I remember in around 2014 they bought a huge hedge at around 100 usd.
Then oil went to 60 something and hedge was worth maybe 500-600 milj usd that they sold it and bought new hedge at around 68 usd throughout 2015-2016 something. That saved the company and was a master move.

Hope Opec and saudi now stay strong and go through with these 1,4 milj barrels.
I see that US production increased in one year from 9,6 to 11,6 milj.
It hard to see that continue for several year. And once that finish its few countries that can increase.

L3

Yeah, its another thing " people being told and read"

I also said that if that if hedge at 80 would turned out to be low that we oil went to 100 usd in mid 2019.
Then hedge 2020 also. Then we would safely cleared all debt in 2 years.
with just 5 milj hedge we still very exposed to oil prices in next year.

Hi E,

It looks like really interresting time ahead.
I can assume going into generating these FCF amounts we will get many new investors that wants get in.
Just to hold on to our shares couple of years more and valuation should be much higher.
Day by day debt and risk decrease.

Will be interresting see broker updates soon, who didnt see enq make any FCF in H2.

About hegde, if I was AB. I would hedge as much as possible at 80 usd all 2019 last month.
If half way into 2019 oil prices even higher than 80 , I would continue hedge into 2020.
This would be a safe ride.

Yes I hope so too with possitive reaction on Monday

its second upgrade in 6 months.
Now we clearly into making good amont of money if oil holds around 65 usd.
Its difficult for market value something that doesnt make money.

Reports from now on should be more and more possitive and from these low levels it can go fast

Looking forward to operation update end of month

Hi L3

1. Debt. Looks like you might on to something there, that they include 100 milj vendor loan payback.

2. Production, they mention 11,4k increase from the 75% Magnus. Based on the 54k H1 it equal the 20% increase
So they estimate 65k 2019 conservative. They also mention further upgrade if reach 70k and it looks doable to me

It will be interresting weeks to come:-)

Evening E,

This release must be really possitive for monday or?
So big net debt reduction + increased assets with Magnus.
Are moodys in contact with Enquest to get numbers?

240 milj H2 net debt reduction is higher then my estimates.

Moodys are really conservative both on prod numbers and oil price.
Last report from them was that also
I will be dissapointed if Enq didnt hedge atleast 50% H1 2019 at around 75 usd

I read the PMO update also, and I think they said they would feel comfortable pay dividend if their debt go below 2 bilj.
Maybe 2020 we could get some dividend

Hi E121

Moody's estimates that EnQuest will generate FCF of around $285 million in 2018, after capex of $250 million that has significantly reduced following the start-up of Kraken in June 2017.

FCF on this level they talk. what should be deducted to get really FCF for dept redution?

in gereral it seems they on the very low side of production figures

more info here

https://www.moodys.com/research/Rating-Action-Moodys-upgrades-EnQuests-rating-to-B2-stable-outlook--PR_391526

wow, this is interesting!
There info on moodys page. google "moodys enquest"

Hi L3, About kraken we only know Feb was highest Month with 40k and i think average is around 35k if you exclude the maintenance stop. What the future brings no one here knows. I stick to 35k guess as we 1,5 year into production and if no real improvement yet I doubt in future.

Squif, Kraken and Alma will be higher H2 vs H1.
Aug prod data and tanker monitoring indicates this.
Alma is coming from H1 average maybe 1,5-2k average so easy to improve

I also dont see any real improvements with Kraken, H2 will be maybe 34-35k vs H1 31k mainly higher due to the 2-3 weeks maintanace in H1. Guess we should be very happy if could do 40k avarage in future.
Magnus is the saver for Enquest as it comes on top of everything, without Magnus it would just take too long to pay back debt with these oil prices.
Magnus production is solid, just hope there no surprices in the deal and waterfall cashflow will be distributed as Fernan or E121 stated.

Not sure they will state the net dept figure in Nov update.
I think they stopped doing that last operational update

Hi L3

We counted Aug prod to around 58k and then Magnus should climb another 10k Sept = 2,5 k
And Alma galia, should also climb another 3k something = 1,5k
So I think from sept forward we must be around 60-62k vs 54 k H1
My estimate July-Oct is 58-59k because July was low
Lets say 5 k extra vs H1 = 50 milj usd extra vs H1

Oilprice they should also get around get atleast 10 usd more then H1 = 100 milj extra vs H1

Then we have extra amouts (Thristle,RI,Bumi ) 60 milj

about the Hedges and futures I cheched them when oil was in 80-85 range and it was possible hegde all 2019 at 80 usd and even into 2020.
Maybe they started hedging earlier then Oct we dont know.
But if they had the chance to hedge at 80 I think they should have taken it and alot volume and period.
Only down side would be if prices went to 90-100 in 2019 but then they could hedge more into 2020 and we would safely clear all debt in maybe 2 years.

I heard AB’s plan to buy a football club is still on the table as the hedge for 2019 is solid.

We should be very happy RI is done and soon have Magnus. It will lower breakeven freecashflow about 15 usd.

Haha, good one Jan

Jan, i remember you said before Nov update will be the wakeup call for markets. I think so too. Lets hope for july-oct prod 58-59 k. Update on magnus. Hedge for next year. It will be 2 long weeks wait for Nov update

Donald Trump got what he wanted to mid-term elections: a lower or at least a dampened oil price which did not fly to the sky on Iran sanctions which fully kicked in on 4 November. Now it is Saudi Arabia’s turn to get what it wants: an oil price from which it can survive. Preferably USD 85/bl but absolutely not USD 60/bl.

http://ravarumarknaden.se/opec-put-gives-floor-to-crude-oil-prices/

http://ravarumarknaden.se/det-blir-oljebrist-pa-2020-talet/

Guess its last time they please Trump!
Things will backfire on him and Opec cuts will come soon