RE: Perseverance -1 drill ?4 Feb 2021 10:33
MR.Spacetomato
"Having a 25% chance to strike oil means 1 out of 4." No. What you have done there is turned a percentile into a fraction. You do realise we are only drilling one position and not ''4' right?
ZagEgypt
"You are not giving a factual account of the drill. " - I'm going one better and stating verbatim what Potter said (as per the video) and commenting.
"With approx 10 levels to the drill it heightens the success rate expediently, but you know that." Expediently!!?? You clearly have zero grasp of what that word means. Furthermore, we are not targeting ten structures! Even if this was Narnia and that was true, are you saying 9/10 failure rate is a positive?
My statement was merely in regards to Potters statement, 3 months ago, that this is a cert. A 70% chance of failure IS NOT a cert. If in doubt, have a look at Sound Energy plc as example. Three Moroccan dusters in a row (four if you count Italy). Talk of a super connected gas/oil field. Webcam feeds from drill sites. 3 drills tarting three structures. 'As good as it gets' with a chance of Success rated at 30-35%. They were all dusters. They decided to sack off the 5th drill because they had no confidence.
Appreciate there has been a lot of talk surrounding tight hole drilling but it shouldn't mean you talk out of the proverbial. You both need to work on your maths and do a lot more research.