Member Info for Pdub

I believe the company anticipate costs more in line with Vametco largely due to economies of scale from the much higher output. I think that was anticipating Vanchem production around 2600 mtV pa. Happy to be corrected.

Vametco recently about $22 kgV

Nice work eatstocks.

Nah. I think Grafton are completely selling down. Could be wrong but they just want their money. They have done well with lots sold well above 10p.

Another little snippet of info that some might find interesting.

Under AIM rules a company is only required to update its significant shareholders list at least once every six months! BMN does this more frequently than required by the rules.

Thanks for that DBB.

As far as AIM rules are concerned though the company has to be informed by the major shareholder first about acquisitions / disposals. Then the company is required to inform the exchange etc. So even if as you say they know live holdings status they can’t issue RNS re any transactions until they are officially informed by the shareholder. That is the regulation.

So as far as RNSs like yesterday are concerned BMN can only release that info to market once officially informed by the shareholder .

Correction … UKSteveg

Thanks UKSeveg. Confirms my suspicions.

… and buyers believe that I would hope for a positive start today.

If if is reality and buying continues perhaps we may a steady share price recovery.

Interesting pre opening spread on LSE of 9.50p / 10.50p.

Hate to pour cold water on that top 5 investors list but it’s not correct. Alfacomp has more shares that 3 of them!

There are other shareholders with larger holdings than all of them. I suspect it is a list of certain types of investors eg funds. Anyway Orange Trust @ 72 million and Acacia @ 45 million not on list so clearly not full list of top 5 investors.

That list would only be useful if we know that Grafton were previously on it and have now dropped off it. Ie whatever the qualification for entry on the list applied to Grafton. In that case it would be very significant! Otherwise can’t read anything into it.

I would like to follow up on my 17.39 post where I asked “… why have Grafton chosen this moment to inform BMN that they were below notifiable level … two months after the event?…”

Another possible theory. See what you think.

Let’s imagine Grafton gave their broker a sell order to dispose of everything. One large sell order, perhaps with an average price achieved included, and most likely above 10p.

If that were the case I believe AIM rules are that threshold notifications are only required when the order is completed.

Perhaps it has taken February, March, April and early May to fully complete that order. In other words they are done.

Grafton are not required to inform anyone that they have sold all their shares but they would be required to inform the company that a threshold was crossed. once the order was completed.

It is just a wild theory but it would go some way to explaining the events of today and the lack of previous updates.

Anyway I would be interested in opinions. Might be complete nonsense.

Fatbanker in theory you are absolutely correct …. Until that is the shareholder fails to promptly inform BMN of changes to their holding. Duferco / Grafton seem to have history here. UKSteveg wrote this last week and it is a good example:

“The company had to reissue its February list due to Duferco not informing them of the ten million sold that month. List initially published mid-Feb and reissued a week later which then included the Feb sales of ten million for Duferco. Went from 66 to 55 million. …”

Since then the share register showed Grafton at 55 million until today. The major nominee accounts all changed in the numbers released for March … except Grafton. Now we know that Grafton were down to 35 million by 04 March. They simply do not keep BMN informed.

Thus as far as the share register is concerned it is not a reliable source for identifying Grafton’s holding. We have to rely on detective work and common sense.

And common sense tells me they don’t have many left. If the market shares my view then we could see some ver6 interesting price action over the coming days and weeks. We shall see.

Just my opinion.

That is correct UKSteveg but I think BMN have to be informed by the shareholder of their holding. The responsibility in this case lies entirely with Grafton (Duferco) not the BMN BoD.

A big apology if my earlier post suggesting a date error in the RNS mislead anyone. Just emphasises that we should all fact check and research before posting.

On this occasion I am very happy to have been wrong on that point. There was no date error,

Thanks Cindercone. What would really make me smug would be getting rid of the cancer but that’s one I am going to lose unfortunately. I would happily give away my BMN shares in exchange but hey ho.

The only other question I have is why have Grafton chosen this moment to inform BMN that they were below notifiable level … two months after the event.

Now this is complete guesswork but could it be that they are done? Who knows.

However if Grafton have finished selling or are close to it then those waiting for the bottom and the seller be gone might be thinking we need to act soon ….

So Cindercone out if us pair if smug ones who is the most smug tonight?

Forgive me for having a bit of fun but it is rather good when you speculate about something and for once you get it right! Amongst the other cr*p in my life I think maybe I am entitled to enjoy a little bit of this.

UKSteveg 48 million shares were traded on 01 March. I would not surprise me at all if Grafton unloaded 6 million on that day. In fact I am surprised the number isn’t higher.

And for the avoidance of doubt I no longer think there was an error in the RNS. I hope my previous post has made that clear!

Loudspeakers post got me doing some fact checking!

Now bear in mind that typically the daily volume traded in BMN S
shares is typically between an out 3 to 8 million.

In the RNS it states that:

“…notified on 04 May 2022 that Grafton Commodity Trading Limited ("Grafton Commodity Trading") no longer holds a notifiable interest in the Company's shares.”

Now I assumed that in the table provided in the RNS the change in Grafton holding from 01 March @ 49 million to 04 March @ 35 million was a typo because I assumed the reference to 03 March should have been 04 May as noted earlier.

HOWEVER I have changed my mind. Bear with me.

It seems unlikely at first glance that they sold 14 million in three days, but promoted by Loudspeaker I checked the daily volumes for those three days using the Hargreaves Lansdown charts. This is what I found:

01 March 48 million
02 March 20 million
03 March 37 million
04 March 24 million

As you can all see the daily volume totalled 81 million shares for that 3 day period compared to what we would normally get at around 10 to 20 million. It is therefore highly likely that Duferco did sell 14 million shares in those three days and that the 35 million remaining was indeed as if 04 March !!!!!

It gets better still. The following week the daily volumes were as follows:

07 March 29 million
08 March 23 million
09 March 10 million
10 March 32 million
11 March 21 million

In other words over the next week Duferco could have and probably did offload as many again … if not more !!!! Why would they have done this? They share price ranged from 11.30p to 13.50p. Duferco needed 10p to “break even”. The more they sold during that 2 week period the more money they made on the deal.

So why are we only getting this info now? Well this is speculative but the RNS states that BMN were informed that Grafton are below notifiable level (3%?) but that appears to have been achieved 2 months earlier on 04 March. As with some previous declarations Grafton were simply late doing so.

As the selling has certainly continued since then Grafton are by now likely to have relatively few if any left.

Those talking about this going on to 2023 are … well quite simply completely wrong.

As far as I am concerned this is great news. I firmly believe the Duferco selling has been the brake on the share price. Once the market perceives that supply of shares has gone and buyers return we could see a very justifiable rapid uplift in the share price.

Just my opinion but their is one heck of a lot if factual evidence to support.

Challenge it by all means but if you want my attention you better back it up with evidence.

The simple common sense answer is so often the correct one.

Cindercone you are such a pessimist

“Don’t see much happening here until 2023…”

Well you shouldn’t feel too smug about that. They have offloaded almost half of those shares in about 4 months. At that rate they will be gone long before 2023.

Further,ore they have a history of late reporting so could be that happened again here, so there holding may already be further reduced.

And then we have kiln 3 coming on line right now which will significantly impact production total and costs, and combined with the higher vanadium price regime will greatly boost profit.

So no I don’t think you should take credit for what I think is a very incorrect foreword assessment.

Just my opinion of course.