Member Info for Pdub

Apologies for typo error. Correction:

“… Also confirmation that Jill 3 at Vanchem…. “

Thank you Uksteveg. I must have missed that but it seems to partly confirm my thoughts.

Pdub.

Just to keep feet on the ground re Q1 Update which is likely to appear anytime in the next few weeks. There is at least a one month lag between published V prices and prices that BMN charge their customers. This is information put out by the company themselves.

Thus V prices quoted in February which according to vanadiumprice.com ranged from $39 to $45 in Europe and $40 to $44 in China for FeV (possibly higher for BMNs Nitrovan product) would be the last prices to cover the Q1 Update period. Prices that would produce a healthy profit for BMN.

The very high prices seen in March, April and perhaps further forward will work their way into the Q2 Update period and beyond. These prices will generate very high profits.

As the global factors impacting upon the V price are showing no signs of reversing any time soon the prospects for BMN in 2022 look very encouraging in my opinion.

The big news I am looking for in the Q1 Update is consistent production numbers and reduced costs. Also confirmation that Jill 3 at Vanchem is on track for commissioning and any positive news on electrolyte plant.

Just my opinion.

I believe the current problem with the share price is that there are one or more significant sellers. Don’t have to be an expert to see the number of large often round number sells going through each day. Interesting that the market is mopping up those shares. Lots saying thank for the low buy price?

Just my opinion but I believe it is Duferco that is offloading. They have a significant holding of CLN shares issued late 2021 and are one of the few that could sustain selling over a period of months. They have a track record of disposal as they sold their entire holding of CLN shares issued late 2020 before the 2021 issue, which gives me the impression that they are not interested in the investment and simply want to convert shares to cash. At current prices they are making a healthy profit so why wouldn’t they convert, particularly if that helps their own cash flow. And bear in mind that the revised terms for the Duferco CLNs not only replaced more cash with shares but also specifically removed any time constraints on selling them. I am sure that was to suit Duferco!

If I am correct and they have given their brokers a very large sell order it may be taking months to complete. If it quite possible that the sale will not be reported to BMN until, complete so relying on the share register to examine change in holding may not work other than demonstrating whether other large holdings have altered.

I am sure others with an imagination as vivid as mine will be thinking what might happen to the share price once the seller (Duferco?) has finished! Everything seems to be in place for a much higher valuation.

As always just my opinion. I am not an expert in this field and recognise others will disagree and have alternative ideas. So far I have not read anything that sounds more plausible.

The CEO mentioned $45 - $50 kgV as being a sweet spot that keeps the price low enough to encourage VRFB developments whilst being highly profitable selling to the steel industry. The CEO has not altered that figure as far as I am aware, although there has been speculation on this bb about the number.

Currently the vast majority of Vanadium production from Vanchem and Vametco goes to the steel industry. These high prices will now be working their way into revenue to BMN and therefore profit, and very significant profit.

Prices reported on AsianMetals site across all markets in all locations were stable, other than Russia where they fell slightly.

https://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

I suspect the recent retrace in some V prices may be coming to an end. Global events would suggest further pressure to move V prices up.

As others have reported, prices in US are apparently significantly higher than in Europe and this is BMNs largest market.

LB21 / Ben I enjoy reading posts from both of you. I hope peace breaks out between you long before it does in Ukraine!

You both seem like good guys to me.

Apologies for an earlier post where I incorrectly said that BELCO was part of BE. The information below taken from last year’s Updates seems to confirm that BELCO is part of the Bushveld Vanadium platform, just as Lindon pointed out from information published by BMN.

I wish BMN would keep their website up to date!

Q1 2021 Update

(Under Bushveld Vanadium)

“The procurement phase of the Bushveld Electrolyte Plant has commenced, with commissioning expected in H2 2022.”

And:

“Bushveld Electrolyte Company 
§ The development of the 200MWh electrolyte manufacturing plant is progressing according to plan. The remaining environmental permits and safety risk assessments were successfully applied for and conducted respectively during Q1 2021.
§ The procurement phase of the Bushveld Electrolyte Plant has commenced with the ordering of major long lead items. The signing of the lease agreement with the Industrial Development Zone in East London and ground-breaking for the construction of the property is due to occur during Q2 2021, while the installation of major equipment is planned for during Q3 2021. Commissioning of the plant is expected in H2 2022.
§ Including the ZAR36 million spent to date (approximately US$2.1 million), capital expenditure for the construction of the electrolyte plant has been revised to ZAR217 million (approximately US$13.6 million), originally US$10 million.
§ Bushveld's capital expenditure investment commitment for plant construction has been amended to ZAR81 million (approximately US$5.1 million) through 2024. The remaining balance of ZAR136 million (approximately US$8.5 million) will be funded through equity and debt instruments in terms of the agreement signed between Bushveld Energy and its partner, the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa.
§ As the project progresses into procurement and construction, Bushveld will transfer its interest in the electrolyte manufacturing plant company, Bushveld Electrolyte Company, to its vanadium production operations, alongside Vametco and Vanchem.”

Q2 2021 Update

No mention at all of BELCO, electrolye plant or anything related. Remember this is essentially an update of Bushveld Vanadium activities!

Q3 2021 Update

No mention at all of BELCO, electrolye plant or anything related.

Q4 2021 Update

Group Capital Expenditure

(Includes the following entries:)

Bushveld Electrolyte Company ("BELCO") ZAR37 million (circa US$2.4 million)

Bushveld Energy ZAR10 million (circa US$0.7 million)

(Edit: note that BELCO and BE listed separately!)

So it would seem that the intention to transfer BELCO to the Bushveld Vanadium platform was carried out as can be deduced from Q1and Q4 Updates.

Thanks Lindon. Yet just when you think it is crystal clear the website says under Bushveld Energy:

“Business Model

Bushveld Energy’s business model focuses on five types of revenue-generating activities in the mid- and downstream segments of the vanadium value chain. These activities have comparatively low capital requirements compared with the mining business. These five activities broadly are:

1. Electrolyte manufacturing, which includes: – designing a conversion process for vanadium feedstock from Vametco’s existing mining and processing operations; – building and operating a chemicals plant to purify vanadium feedstock and mix it into a liquid vanadium electrolyte product; and – marketing the electrolyte to VRFB companies or direct users/buyers of VRFB systems;

Remember that the electrolyte plant comes under the BE label. Revenue from electrolyte I certainly hope is not that far away.

Electrolyte rental contracts also come within the activities of BE.

One further point concerns the pricing of BMNs main product Nitrovan. Unless things have changed I believe general understanding is that this product achieves a premium of some 5% higher that general v products.

Happy to be corrected or updated on this point.

Jus5 my opinion.

Expecting this in next 2 to 4 weeks. I am hoping for further confirmation of consistent production totals at Vametco and Vanchem. This would be a huge achievement compared to Vametco issues 12 months ago.

Also hoping for further cost reductions. That would be a real bonus coming on top of the huge Vanadium price rices over the last couple of months. And those price rises have held up well in both US (BMNs largest market) and China (which has been a growing market for the company’s products).

Remember as these price rises filter through into BMN revenue (delay of a month or so) the company becomes increasingly profitable.

Also remember from Q4 Update we were reminded that although costs at Vanchem were higher than Vametco some of the premium products such as chemicals attract premium prices!

Just my opinion.

Cindercone BMN have not been “giving away milli9ns of shares”. The Duferco shares were in place of cash payments for the purchase of Vanchem. Cash which I suspect BMN did not have and the 100% BMN owned Duferco I suspect will turn out to be the jewel in the crown for the Vanadium production side of the company’s business.

The tiny amount of shares to Primorus (and issued over 6 lots covering 18 months) was to increase BMNs stake in that investment, which hopefully will produce significant returns.

They did not give away any shares. They were all in exchange for physical assets or investments.

Criticise if that is how you feel but please be factually accurate.

Just my opinion.

Thank you Loudspeaker for not letting Anthony get away with an inaccurate post.

To add further detail from AsianMetals this morning FeV 80% was indeed down in Europe and US but by less than 1%. In China the same category of product was flat.
Ammonium Metavanadate was also flat and so was V2O5 apart from Europe. I believe Vanchem makes both these products?
Vanadium Nitride, a close enough product to BMNs Nitrovan, was also flat.

Not a single vanadium price displayed on the AsianMetals chart was down as much as 1%. I would say that thread has a very misleading title.

Always worth checking the detail. Here is the link:

https://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

Just my opinion.

Alfredh please don’t take this as investment advice but …..

If you are so unhappy with the company performance as you see it (I don’t share your opinion in any way whatsoever) then why don’t you sell up if you own any, and invest in a company where you think performance is so much better.

That way you will be happy chasing rainbows.

On the serious point about production capacity you know as well as I do that Vametco has had its share of difficulties. If you are as intelligent as I would like to think you are you will fully understand the challenges of taking on a second hand production plant. If you are lucky everything functions as it should. To some extent BMN were not lucky.

Once the fundamental issues in production were sorted they very sensibly took a look at targets and revised them downwards to a level they they believe is sustainable. I can’t think of any reason why intelligent and fair minded investors would believe that to be anything but a sensible course of action.

Most importantly through 2021 they delivered on those targets and did the same at Vanchem. You should be celebrating that fact especially now apparently you have bought a few shares. I assume you haven’t sold already!

We also know that production costs are falling in part due to the smoother running of Vametco since the shut down. And at Vanchem we know that the second kiln work is progressing. The company anticipate further economies of scale with two kilns running that will bring production costs into line with Vametco. Now that is very good news. Hopefully some of the premium products from Vanchem will generate higher margins on those costs.

We also know that the electrolyte plant is making good progress. Quite difficult for BE to sell a product they don’t yet make but once that is up and running all sorts of revenue streams become possible. Look beyond the horizon to try to see what’s coming.

Now I must take you up on another point that I find irritating. Don’t overblow expectations about numbers in the Q1 Update. We are all interested in production numbers and costs. Personally I will be very happy if they are in line with the previous three Qs as that would confirm stability on the production line and the quality of the ore input.

As for profit I assume that you understand that the price that BMN achieves is in line with LMB pricing but runs at least a month behind. The rises in the last month won’t work their way into revenue until Q2. So let’s keep feet on the ground and not get too excited, only to have you moaning about stuff that was never going to happen anyway.

Right that’s enough. You have taken a decent chunk of my precious time on this lovely sunny evening in Cornwall. Good night.

Just my opinion.

Nice one compos. Hope your patience is very well rewarded.

Sammy your opinions are every bit as important as mine or anyone else’s so keep them coming.

One aspect of what you write I particularly like. You are a straight talker. No bull. No nonsense. You speak your mind. That is a big positive on bbs where so much duplicity can exist.

Thanks for your support on health issues. I will fight as hard as I can for as long as I can.

Regards. Paul.

Hi Sammy. I don’t disagree with you about PR. It does appear to be BMNs one blind spot and I have no idea why.

I think where we disagree is just how important that is. Long term I think it will be irrelevant. What matters is delivering on their plan to build a large low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform. That has been their stated aim for many years now.

Most importantly they are exactly delivering on that promise. It is taking time, though not at all unusual in the mining industry for example. Certainly taking more time than some shareholders would like. Almost certainly longer than Fortune Mojopelo would like. However they are still on track despite some very challenging issues both globally and within the operations of the company. To keep delivering on the company’s plan for me is the mark of a quality CEO. in my opinion that is quite rare on AIM.

Of course anyone can pick out individual missed deadlines or mistaken decisions … that is true of almost any company. The bigger picture is of a company that is step by step positioning itself to take full advantage of both existing and new markets in the vanadium market, whether it be improving production at Vametco, second kiln at Vanchem, commissioning of electrolyte plant, new contracts and partners in energy storage, etc.

I understand why some shareholders judge the company by the share price … not an entirely unreasonable approach. However I think it is a little shortsighted as I believe the future is looking very good for both BMN and its shareholders, and the man that has put the company in this position is the CEO Fortune Mojopelo.

However that is all just my opinion

“ even Mojopelo can't fk that up”

Sammy I enjoy your posts but that comment is grossly insulting to a CEO that has built this company from nothing to a significant player in the Vanadium world. Completely out if order in my opinion.

Alfredh you are sort of correct. Some of the content of my posts could be described as ‘positive speculation’. Congratulations on paying sufficient attention and I am flattered that you are a ‘follower’. Lol.

HOWEVER you failed to mention two critical points. I always try to include the relevant facts that lead to my conclusions and I always make it very clear that my posts are just my opinion.

And on the first point the facts in the public domain that relate to current production numbers and costs, implementation of plans for diversification and expansion and the general conditions of the Vanadium market are by and large very positive. It is not surprising then that anyone with a rounded knowledge of the company and its business activities would be rather positive looking forward.

Of course I understand that there are some whose knowledge of the company may be slightly more superficial and may fear the slightest moves in sp or V price. Then there are some traders who believe it or not talk the talk depending on their current trading position. I know that may shock you!

The people I do have some empathy with are those that bought in at a much higher price. That is frustrating and can be worrying if an individual has invested more than they are comfortable with. If those that share my belief in BMN are correct then future share price growth should ease the pain but obviously no one can guarantee that.

Hope that helps you to better understand my position. If not …. well frankly who cares.

Just my opinion.