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In 2018 the Q2 Vanadium update was published on 22 August. However there is no pattern to the date of publication of BMN updates and results. This is well illustrated by the two examples below, one several weeks earlier and the other several weeks later this year compared to 2018
Q1 Vanadium update for 2018 on 27 April but in 2019 later on 15 May.
Final results in 2018 on 29 June but in 2019 earlier on 23 May
Therefore the Q2 update may be earlier than 22 August but equally it may be later. Just have to be patient ... it will be published when BMN are ready.
Better to focus not on timing but on content. I hope it will show a significant increase in monthly / quarterly production at Vametco. That could be very interesting.
Just my opinion.
Rxdav given that you have sold out why would next Friday's closing price be of any interest to you? Of course the answer seems very obvious ... looking for a cheaper buy back.
This conclusion seems to be supported by your non stop negativity.
Of course I understand your anger with the company and what has happened. I sit on a significant loss here. However given that you have sold out I find your constant negative posting particularly annoying as you seem intent on trying to inflict further damage to the sp, thus causing larger losses to existing holders. I doubt that idea has even crossed your mind but perhaps you could give it some thought. After all it is no longer your money on the line. Of course my conclusions about your intent may be incorrect, but I am making that judgement as a response to what you post.
As far as my own losses are concerned I blame myself. I know that won't be a popular concept on this bb so allow me to explain.
Anyone investing in an AIM junior oil company is taking a HUGE investment risk. It's an all or nothing investment. Oil flowing or duster. The former may bring large profit, the latter large losses. Sadly Brockham appears to be the latter. So our big gamble didn't work out.
I remember being invested in Doriemus back in 2014 / 15 when Angus was the operator but a private company. The common complaint was poor communication from Angus, even before they listed. Then when Angus listed we all believed the hype and forgot the poor history of communications. We bought into the dream ... no one made us do it. It was our decision therefore our responsibility.
I used to post here and on the DOR bb and in fairness was quite positive about the prospects. However I frequently ended the posts with this critical point ... IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHETHER THE OIL FLOWS.
Sadly it appears that the oil did not flow. Tough luck on us.
Whatever anyone thinks about Tidswell Vonk Lucan etc. they would all be forgiven had the oil flowed, irrespective of their history. But it didn't. So either hold, sell, buy or whatever .... but accept that we got this wrong and move on.
Yes some will press a class action and good luck with that. I will observe with interest.
However in my head I have moved on from Brockham. Not worth selling now so I will hold and see if they can recover this over the next year or so. Cancer has completely changed my outlook, and life is too precious to waste it worrying about one of my investments failing.
Just my thoughts and I am sure many will disagree.
Good luck all. Pdub.
H2 results to come, hopefully showing significant improvement in production at Vametco.
Mokopane licence could drop anytime.
Vanchem deal to complete
Recovery from n V price
Any BE news
Any or all should help the sp.
No summer break for me.
Reilly this is a decision that you have to make for yourself.
If you haven't already done so this is about as good a source of info on all things BMN as you will find.
For me this is a life changing investment. I cannot speak for anyone else invested here.
Interesting that current FeV prices are described as 'low'. It could be argued that they are nothing of the sort!
Throughout the period 1980 to 2003 FeV was typically well below $20 kgV, apart from a few spikes.
Since 2003 there have been some more very significant spikes in V price, including 2018. However typical prices were in the range $25 to $40. Therefore the current price around $35 + or -, is actually close to average long term FeV prices.
Perhaps not a major point but language can affect sentiment.
For low FeV prices look at 2016 where they were around $15 kgV. Great for BMN as that was when they negotiated the first Vametco acquisition (a brilliant deal).
Whilst huge price spikes in general might be considered counter-productive in the long term, BMN did incredibly well out of the 2018 spike, ending the year with £42 million cash which it looks like they will use to fund much of the Vanchem acquisition and instantly increase production by nearly 1000 mtV pa.
Perhaps the two most important points from a BMN perspective are that with production costs at less than $19 kgV Vametco is very profitable at this price point.
Secondly the current V price makes VRFBs much more competitive, and that market may well be able to absorb modest price rises from the current level.
Fortune's decision to develop a low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform is looking like an inspired strategic plan ... and the shareholders are likely to see the benefit of this as the next stage in the company's development unfolds over the coming months and years.
Not sure if that all makes sense and just an opinion. Make of it what you will.
numpty you are correct re share buy back and it can't be ruled out, but I believe ludeck's excellent post very accurately reflects how Fortune operates.
Also this morning good to see the V price indicators showing some signs of an increase.
For anyone feeling a little jittery and wondering when the sp will boom I can't answer that, but I love this quote from a Bloomberg article from May.
"Adroit Market Research points to astounding growth in the VRFB market"
Now you have to admit that should bring a smile! BMN is positioning itself to lead the charge in Africa, where frankly the benefits could be greatest for local populations and businesses.
RRR quite apart from stating the obvious I would point out that the V price fell to about $33 to $36 kgV by 24 May. Since then it has not varied hugely from that. Thus the 'fall' substantially ended a month and a half ago, excepting that within that time frame their was a period of slow rise and then a slow fall.
It is also important to note that Vametco has most recently reported production costs below $19 kgV so the plant is very profitable even at these V prices. Good news I am sure you would agree.
Even better that the significant profits being made at Vametco are being used to increase production and to diversify both production bases and the range of products. You must be delighted with the business plan and that the company is delivering.
Just my opinion.
Berserker you wrongly (in my opinion) criticise buzzipster for making an assertion ("V price is turning), accusing him of deception and not sticking to facts. Well arguably if the fall has halted then the trend has at least changed so buzzipster was not necessarily as far off the mark as your comment implies, and deception is not a word I would accept as accurate of fair.
And on that point of accuracy you yourself have also made a statement which some with harsher attitudes than myself might describe as not "sticking to the facts rather than deception: "AsianMetal is a bad barometer of price".
Well I have followed AsianMetal for a number of years and I have to say they do portray price trends quite well. Indeed the irony is that the recent uptrend and then downtrend that you refer to was very accurately reported by AsianMetal!!!!
A case of those who have not sinned may cast the first stone? Lol.
Must go. Yet another hospital session.
Berserker I disagree. The recent V price rise was followed by a week of static prices then the downturn back to where we are now. The last four working days have seen a change from all indicators falling to a mix with no change. Today most indicators were static. This could well be the bottom.
Of course I can't be certain of that but these signs could indeed be taken as an indication that the recent fall has halted. That could be the precursor to the next rise.
Of course there are those for whom a rise in the V price would be inconvenient.
And by the way AsianMetals is a respected site.
Is it possible that many of the sells that we assume are 'shorts' are in fact REMX continuing to sell down their holding? Perhaps they want to sell but need a bottom line of around 23.50p or more. Hence the balancing of buys with sells.
I am no expert on market trades so may be wrong, but if correct it is good news as they have ploughed they way through most of their shares in the last month or so. Wouldn't be many more to go..... then brakes off?
Just a theory ... nothing more.
Zebediah I am not sure that the data supports that particular idea. See below:
"Between 2009 and 2016, China’s steel exports as a share of production more than tripled from 4 percent to 13.2 percent, before decreasing in 2017. In 2018, the export share of production decreased further by 1.6 percentage points to 7.2 percent."
So for 2017 and 2018 exports of Chinese steel actually fell as a share of production.
Also in 2019 some interesting stats:
"Exports were 5.73mn t in May, down by 17pc from 6.88mn t a year earlier and lower by 10.5pc from April, according to preliminary customs data. Exports were last lower in February, at 4.51mn t.
So whilst May had record breaking production exports fell in tons and % of production. The growth was in the domestic market, not exports.
As always, just my opinion and happy to be corrected.
Good post Bella.
That is exactly why I keep repeating that 2019 / 2020 are looking very exciting. It is to do with how BMN are developing the business from single site / single product (and very profitable that is but vulnerable to shut downs as in strike last year) to multiple production sites / multiple products / increased production. And that looks like coming to fruition over the next 6 to 18 months. I think as that chapter of the BMN story unfolds we will see a re-rate of the sp. SP Angel see that too.
Of course a re-rate of the vanadium price would certainly help and I believe that will happen in the coming months. However even without it the vertically integrated model is a wonderful hedge against V price fluctuations. As you say BMN is progressing towards a win win situation in that respect.
In my opinion this screams out buy / hold. Other opinions are available (though heaven only knows why!)
As always DYOR.
Drifter this link shows some interesting data on Chinese steel production by month for the last 12 months.
The graph shows that steel production in China in 2018 was indeed high during 2018 but the devil is in the detail. Production peaked in October (close to the peak vanadium price) at 82552 tons, but then fell continuously until February total of 70988 tons. That period of falling Chinese steel production corresponds to declining V prices.
However what is very interesting to me is that Chinese steel production has increased rapidly since February to an all time high in May of 89091 tonnes! During that same time V prices fell. Without a significant increase in V production this should lead to some upward pressure on V price, with or without VRFBs.
"Steel Production in China increased to 89091 Thousand Tonnes in May from 85032 Thousand Tonnes in April of 2019. Steel Production in China averaged 32982.39 Thousand Tonnes from 1990 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 89091 Thousand Tonnes in May of 2019 and a record low of 4918 Thousand Tonnes in February of 1990."