knutsfordnotary I have made some admittedly very rough assumptions. It would appear that through Q2 Dollar Rand exchange rate was averaging around 14.35 + or - , but this is a rough estimate!
Using Q1 cost of production of 260.8 Rand per kgV for Q2 this would convert to around $18.2 kgV, compared to $18.6 in Q1.
What I cannot comment on is any reduction in the cost of production due to economies of scale if production has increased as hinted today on the bb.
Although I cannot say that the figures are strictly accurate it is quite possible that the combination of a weakened Rand and increasing production have helped to make Vametco more profitable after the effects of falling V price are removed.
It should be noted that the Rand has strengthened v Dollar over the last 3 weeks or so, dropping from 15.0 to 14.1 today.
If the March total of 270 mtV is indicative of production for each of the Q 2 months then it is possible that 800 mtV could be exceeded. That would be nice not just for the extra revenue etc but because it would indicate the the Stage 2 developments and more recent improvements are working.
Expert could you briefly outline why you are in a better position to judge the structural deficit than those that work in the industry?
It's very easy to say anything you want on a bb. However homegrown theories need evidence to back them up. I suspect that you have none, and are simply guessing based upon V price movements.
I agree MR.
Way too many conspiracy theories being floated on thus BB, which may be distracting people from reality.
Fortune has always put building the business ahead of protecting/manipulating the share price. I find it astonishing that people think he would suddenly depart from that just because of JSE listing.
I can remember a time on this bb when we all dreamed of the price of Vanadium reaching $30 kgV. Today it is around $35 kgV give or take a bit.
With low production costs at Vametco at less than $19 kgV according to last published figures the plant is very profitable even with V price at this level.
And remember that the last published production figure for Vametco was for March at 270 mtV. This represents a substantial increase in monthly production and will add further to profitability and the reduce costs through economies of scale.
Not long until Vanchem deal concluded, adding just under 1000 mtV to production total and yet more revenue and profit.
Finally the low V price should give a nice boost to the embryonic VRFB industry, where Vanadium electrolyte represents a substantial % of cost. That is the part of the company that has been described as having the potential to be 10 x larger than the Vanadium business.
Most analysts anticipate the Vanadium structural deficit to continue for some time to come. The current short term factors, including shorting of the share, will pass and I would expect to see something of a recovery in the V price, providing another boost to the sp.
Just my opinion of course, but the future for BMN and its shareholders looks rather exciting. As always, patience required.
Let's not forget that if V price remains at lower levels than last Autumn that will give a great boost to the VRFB side of Bushveld. The BE business has been described as having the potential to be 10 x the size of the Vanadium side of BMN. Lower V prices won't be doing that vision any harm.
This is the whole point of vertical integration model. We benefit whichever way prices move!
Expert, considering you hope to be out by 2023 - 24 I would have expected a little more patience from one so knowledgable.
TP in May said "Fundamentally vanadium production continues to lag demand and the situation is expected to persist for several years". That was a little over 1 month ago. I think we are very much still within TP's timeframe.
JF I'm afraid your posts came across as a little lazy.
Nobody her can tell you with any certainty where the future share price will be. A better question would be "where can I find information about the company that would help me formulate my own opinion of where the future sp will be?"
Fortunately there us a one stop that can help you. Follow the link:
Generally speaking this bb has been a safe haven from Brexit debate. In the interests of everyone can I respectfully request that it remains that way. Whatever our views on Brexit at least here we can share a common interest that unites us .... Bushveld Minerals.
If you agree please recommend this post.
LIION I believe you may be concerning yourself unnecessarily over Resolution 9. I too am no expert but I believe these are standard AGM resolutions designed to give the company permission in advance to raise capital through equity should they need to. It does not mean the BMN intend to use all or even part of that facility.
Should opportunities arise (eg such as Vametco acquisition) BMN may need to raise capital in this way. However we know that Fortune is funding the acquisition of Vanchem first through internally generated profit, then debt, and only as last resort through a placing. He just needs to have the facility available without the need to call an EGM, even though he wishes to avoid unnecessary dilution.
Also is it not the case that Resolution 8 authorises the company to purchase up to 10% of the share issue through market acquisitions, ie share buy back? That surely is a very useful tool to have at their disposal. (Shorters take note!)
I am very comfortable with these resolutions.
Just my opinion and happy to be corrected if I have misinterpreted the resolutions.