Tim Watts, CFO at Shield Therapeutics #STX presenting at our Life Sciences Investor Briefing Watch Now
I believe the real questions are:
Is BMN delivering on its business plans? I would suggest emphatically yes!
Will this deliver shareholder value over the coming months and years? I would suggest again emohatically yes!
Anyone who agrees with me should really not be worried by what appears to be an extended buying opportunity.
Just my opinion.
ClintYeastWood, assuming you understand how to interpret data in an RNS I can only assume you are joking!!!!
Read the facts below from the RNS (and this is just Vametco!
"Key Highlights: Vametco
Transformation programme successfully delivering higher production rates with Q2 2019 production recording the highest quarterly production rate in over two years.
Production for Q2 2019 was 742 mtV in the form of Nitrovan from magnetite concentrate, a 14 per cent increase relative to Q1 2019 (Q1 2019: 649 mtV), and an 18 per cent improvement relative to Q2 2018 (Q2 2018: 629mtV).
Improvements in mine production scheduling and vanadium grade in kiln feed continues, together with an increase in the hourly feed rate to the kiln and recovery. Overall plant recovery continues to improve.
Production for H1 2019 was 1,392 mtV, a 2 per cent increase relative to H1 2018 (H1 2018: 1,360 mtV).
On target to meet current 2019 production guidance of 2,800 mtV to 2,900 mtV which remains unchanged, underpinned by the continued implementation of several productivity initiatives during the course of H2 2019.
Unit production cost for H1 2019 was US$17.40/KgV, a 14 per cent reduction relative to H1 2018 (H1 2018: US$20.2/KgV), supported by a weaker ZAR relative to the USD during H1 2019, higher volumes and cost reductions.
Unit production cost guidance of US$18.90/KgV to US$19.50/KgV for the 2019 calendar year remains unchanged due to the anticipation of a stronger ZAR relative to the USD during H2 2019.
H1 2019 Revenue of US$74.3 million (H1 2018: US$81.2 million) and H1 2019 EBITDA of US$48.6 million (H1 2018: US$42.4 million).
Vametco achieved an EBITDA margin in excess of 50 per cent, underpinned by strict controls on unit cost and a weaker ZAR.
At current vanadium prices Vametco remains cash flow positive. During H2 2019 the business will continue to focus on cost control and reduction.
Successfully completed the wage and benefits negotiations with the Association of Minerals Workers and Construction Union ("AMCU") for the 3-year period 1 July 2019 to 20 June 2022."
This doesn't include BE or the Vanchem acquisition!
Please reassure me that you understand just how good these results are!
Just my opinion.
Correction. ".... Many investors missed the opportunity to get in here at 1.5p 8p 14p etc. Perhaps some might agree that this represents another opportunity to acquire BMN shares prior to the next significant rerate.... "
FR I note that you joined LSE on 26 June 2018.
On that day BMN closed at 18.15p. Yesterday's close 21.25. Therefore even after the retrace following the V price drop the share price is UP 17% since you joined. Not too shabby I am sure you would agree. The company is on the verge of adding more revenue and diversity of production plant and product through the acquisition of Vanchem.
With all the other developments over the next 18 months (including increased production at Vametco, Mokopane mining licence and start of mining, BE contracts, electrolyte production, JSE listing, possible dividend payments, etc) the future looks very exciting I am sure you would agree. Many investors the opportunity to get in here at 1.5p 8p 14p etc. Perhaps some might agree that this represents another opportunity to acquire BMN shares prior to the next significant rerate.
Remember that BMN made a PROFIT after tax of $49 million in 2018 and currently have no debt. I note for comparison that another company you appear to have more than a passing interest in (SOLG) made a LOSS after tax of $15 million in 2018. That makes BMN look rather good I am sure you would agree.
Just my opinion.
AIM likes cash. BMN has excellent cash flow and profit.
BMN is currently putting in place the foundations of a much larger organisation with greater cash generating capacity. When these developments come to fruition (eg completion of Vanchem acquisition) I expect to see a significant upward movement in sp if only because revenue and profit will increase, hence the value of the company. The current pause in sp feels a bit like the period at 8p and I expect the rise at the end of this period to be equally impressive.
BE has incredible potential but at present is not generating cash flow. That will change.
Looking forward into 2020 the JSE listing and possible dividend payments provide yet more reasons to be confident about the future share price.
Underpinning all of this is a CEO with brilliant strategic thinking and who has a track record of delivering on his promises where that is within his capacity, albeit not always to an estimated timetable.
Of course further rises in V price, especially in Europe and USA would add further pressure on the sp.
In summary I am not at all worried by short term sp fluctuations. BMN has been through this before. Then sentiment suddenly changes and ... BOOM. For example in March to April 2017 and March to May 2018.
I am entirely focussed on company activity as that is what ultimately will deliver value to shareholders.
Just my opinion.
All torque you are correct in stating that in spite of good RNSs the so has gone down, but you need to consider all the facts. Quite apart from the fall in V price in H1, BMN shares have been exposed to shorting activity which I assume has artificially held back the sp. now those amazing RNSs were all about building blocks and not delivering on the new developments. Hence I believed not a strong market response (except perhaps by canny investors getting in early!)
It is my understanding that we are about to enter a period of delivery on those projects, including Vanchem. I would hope that will generate a very strong market response. As far as Vanchem nips concerned, compare to the Vametco acquisition! From a previous post of mine:
"Here is an interesting timeline of the month before the original purchase of 26% of Vametco. It might give an indicator of things to come with the Vanchem acquisition.
Sp before 3.81p
17 March 2017. BMN announces good progress in fulfilling terms of agreement and financing.
Sp before 4.29p
20 March 2017. BMN announces sales and marketing agreement with Wogen.
Sp before 7.57p
30 March 2017. BMN announces financing agreement complete.
Sp before 8.00p
06 April 2017. BMN announces that Bushveld Vametco acquisition of Evraz 78.8 % holding in Strategic Minerals Corporation complete. Bushveld Vametco is 45% BMN 55% Yellow Dragon. Gives BMN around 26% of Vametco. Profits not attributable to BMN.
So in the month leading up to completion of the acquisition the sp went from 3.81p to 8.17p. That's an increase of 114%. This was driven by announcements of fulfilling terms, marketing agreement, finances in place and final acquisition.
It is my hope that BMN run a similar sequence of RNSs leading to Vanchem acquisition, with hopefully a similar response from the market. It would be a brave person or a fool that tried to pretend there would be no market reaction to this excellent acquisition.
Just my opinion, but September / October might be a very positive period for BMN shareholders. And that is why people invest in the high risk AIM market. It is the potential for very large rewards."
Mostly up. Perhaps new rising trend started.
Calcine is a significant waste product from the salt roast beneficiation process at the Vanchem Business and is deposited on a calcine dump in close proximity to the Vanchem Plant.
Due to the water content in the calcine, rainfall and dust suppression requirements, additional leaching of the vanadium units takes place on the calcine dump. This leachate is pumped and processed at the Vanchem Plant, contributing significantly to the overall vanadium recovery in the plant. Ivanti owns the economic benefits of the calcine dump and generates profits from the sale of leachate to the Vanchem Plant for treatment. Ivanti's position was secured due to their provision of funding to VVP during the Business Rescue process. For a 12 month period after completion of the Transaction, VVP will be entitled to 50 per cent of the profits made by Ivanti."
" 100 per cent of the outstanding shares of Ivanti Resources (Pty) Limited ("Ivanti"), a subsidiary of Duferco Participations Holding S.A, which has economic rights to certain secondary vanadium units treated within the Vanchem Plant"
From Vanchem Acquisition RNS on 01 May 2018
"The Vanchem Business has secured sufficient ore supply from third parties to support current levels of production, until Mokopane's development has been completed. The Company retains the optionality to supply magnetite concentrates from Vametco to the Vanchem Business. Upon receipt of the mining right, Mokopane will be a primary source of feedstock to the Vanchem Business as a result of its large mineral reserve, therefore the Transaction facilitates the expedited development of Mokopane. The Mokopane-Vanchem model will represent a fully integrated business, in line with the Company's strategy for Vametco."