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Sorry “… Whilst not defending the comms from BMN …”

Brasi whilst not defended the commas from BMN what we learned from the Enerox court case was the prevalence of NDAs. I suspect this applies to many of BMNs negotiations on grounds of commercial sensitivity. And talks to complete or to sell Imalotu Coal project are likely to be highly sensitive in the current anti coal climate (forgive the pun). I doubt BMN will give anything away until any such deals have been done.

I also believe they are playing the achieved price for vanadium close to their chest for same commercially sensitive reasons.

Again just my opinion.

On re-visiting the Corpoate Presentation from Feb 2021 I found this section interesting:

“Growth path to 8400 mtV per annum

US$24 million to complete Phase III of Vametco's expansion project and to attain a production >4,200 mtV per annum
? Technical studies associated with the Vametco Phase III PFS1 are expected to conclude during H1 2021
? Details on the ramp up profile and capital expenditure will be announced on completion of the PFS
? 2021 capital expenditure of ~ZAR85.2 million (~US$5.3 million)
? The total capital expenditure for the refurbishment programme estimated at ~ZAR750 million (~US$45 million). Details on the ramp up profile and capital expenditure will be provided once studies have been completed
? Phase 1: critical refurbishment including: extending the calcine dump facility, replacement of heavy moving equipment, upgrade of the electrical reticulation system and construction of a storm water treatment facility
? Phase 2: comprises the refurbishment of kiln-3 and increase capacity at the chemical plant, and refurbishment of some downstream processing plants. Kiln-1 will be taken offline for refurbishment
? Phase 3: includes the refurbishment of: kiln-1, MVR salt recovery plant, construction of AMV Plant , V2O3 plant, the V2O5 plant and other associated infrastructure
? Phase 4: consist of the refurbishment of: kiln-2, milling and concentrate, ore offloading, the deammoniator and flake plants, FeV smelter and completion of electrical system upgrade”

Of particular interest to me was the future of Kiln 1 at Vanchem and there has been much debate about this. Note that it clearly states that Phase 3 includes the refurbishment of Kiln 1.

Also look at Phase 4 which includes the refurbishment of Kiln 2!

So their plans to achieve 8000 + mtV pa include getting all three kilns up and running at Vanchem. Unless I have missed something that is still the plan. Hopefully if V prices remain high, output from Kiln 3 achieves its target rate and costs fall in line with Vametco then it is likely that much of the required capex could be delivered from revenue.

Just my opinion but the long term outlook is rather good!

Offmessage I am not trying to be difficult here but I really don’t understand some of your points.

“… the uncertainty that still remains around meeting higher production targets …”

Current production levels at both plants, together with sales numbers, are very clearly stated in the Quarterly Updates. Either you haven’t read them or the related comments referencing the fact that they are consistently meeting targets at both Vametco and Vanchem, or more likely that is not what you are referring too. Either way everyone should celebrate that the maintenance shutdown in Q1 2021 delivered on its targets of resolving production issues at Vametco and achieving a sustainable production rate whilst reducing costs.

Higher production targets can only be achieved when work is completed to deliver those. At Vanchem the company couldn’t be much clearer on what the expected production level will be once Kiln 3 is fully commissioned and equally we know that commissioning and production are currently underway as promised. Once appropriate numbers are available we will be informed. Who knows … perhaps Q2 Update will give some useful numbers. So again I am not sure what you are concerned about. What else can the company do on that specific issue?

Worth reading this from ARC analyst report in April:

“Q1 2022 group vanadium production was marginally up on the preceding quarter, higher volumes at Vametco partially offset by temporarily lower output at Vanchem. Bushveld has now put together four successive quarters of consistently stable performance since the interruptions that blighted Q1 2021, justifying the time and money invested in operational improvement initiatives over the past couple of years.

2022 full year production guidance of 4,200-4,400t remains in sight given the imminent start of Kiln 3 at Vanchem (which will significantly increase volumes at the latter and see Bushveld exit the year with a sustainable group production run rate of 5,000-5,400t pa). This should be accompanied by an incremental reduction in unit costs, which together with current vanadium price strength should drive a return to material profitability this year.

But Bushveld’s assets hold even greater potential, the unlocking of which is key to more substantial margin growth over the longer term given vanadium market volatility. The group is finalising options for its growth path to 8,000t pa of installed capacity, with an announcement due soon. We believe visibility on the structure and funding plan for this longer-term growth plan will be key to triggering upwards re-rating for this undervalued and uniquely positioned vanadium play.”

https://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Bushveld-minerals-BMN-LN-Full-year-targets-maintained-as-Vanchem-Kiln-3-start-nears.pdf

That should encourage you.

I must congratulate you offmessage for managing to make such a positive start to 2022 for BMN sound so negative. That’s quite a skill you have there.

Moving on to Q2 remember that due to pricing delays of one month or more the high US prices (BMNs largest market) for V will have worked through in Q2. With low operational costs and high V prices Vametco’s Nitrovan into US market is likely to have generated significant profit.

Let’s not forget that commissioning of Kiln 3 as promised is ongoing in Q2 and is set to significantly increase production at Vanchem and by economies of scale reduce costs in line with Vametco. If that is delivered and V prices achieve at least $40 kgV then group revenue and profit should be very strong.

The share price is what it is and none of us like it. However the business is delivering on its targets and that should be r3cognised by every fair minded shareholder.

Tell me offmessage how is the business doing?

Oh and Daisydog one further point. I have more sense than to constantly knock my own investment so no apologies from me for identifying positives

Daisydog a couple of points:

1 Please don’t tell me how I would react

2 I didn’t call it a reversal. I asked a question. You have an answer. Thank you.

Not with me. But then I look beyond the daily share price.

Following on from my post yesterday this morning brings something we have not seen for a while …. Significant Vanadium price rises in China.

https://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

Does this mean that the reversal of the recent price falls has begun?

AsianMetals showing flat Vanadium price across the board again. Too early to be sure but beginning to look like the falls reported by that platform May be about to reverse. Vanadium Nitride up (nearest thing to our Nitrovan).

We know that US prices are significantly higher (BMNs main market) so if prices start to rise elsewhere then very good news.

Oh and I agree CC. Your criticisms are anything but subtle. Lol.

So Coffeecups you would rather have no deal with the workforce. That’s a brilliant strategy.

I think it is plain to see why Fortune is running a growth business whilst you criticise from the sidelines.

High inflation means likely higher unemployment for ordinary SA workers. To have a job with a company that seems to have a secure future on account of the business having something the RoW and in particular the US wants and needs, AND to have wage growth locked in for 5 years is a pretty good deal, no matter what some moaning pi’s may think about SA.

Well done FM and Co.

Just my opinion.

If so then I understand why you maybe angry about the share price. Most of us are frustrated with it.

However if you are here for the big returns and see and understand where BMN is heading then today’s share price should be no more than an annoying chapter in the BMN story.

I would like to be here for the long term and will hang on as long as I can as I see a very exciting future for the company. Others here are more fortunate and have the opportunity to see this through to the end if they have the patience. From what we know everything seems to be falling into place and for me it is not if shareholders get their return, it is when and how large will that return be. Wish I had the answer!

Just my opinion.

Disgruntled how dare you accuse me of being a broken record …

Disgruntled how dare you accuse me of being a broken record …

Disgruntled how dare you accuse me of being a broken record …

Disgruntled how dare you accuse me of being a broken record …

Haha Disgruntled apparently you missed the rather more important bit where they acquired not one but TWO processing plants, upgraded them and increased and diversified production within the group.

Or where they are constructing an electrolyte plant to supply what is anticipated to be an increasing VRFB market.

Or where they made a great investment in Invinity and generated a significant profit and hopefully will repeat this success with Enerox.

Like everyone else here I don’t have a crystal ball that tells me the SA rate of inflation over the next 5 years but the assumed rates in the RNS don’t look unreasonable under the current circumstances, and BMN clearly think they will be able to afford it.

Hopefully this will maintain stability in labour relations at the plants which can only be a good thing from our perspective.

Personally I want workers in companies I invest in to be well paid and not exploited.