RE: Another day, another large late trade15 Jun 2022 13:53
Forgive me offmessage but you must include context when making such statements or they can be misleading. At Vanchem output was indeed down in Q1 as Kiln 1 approached the end of its current useful life. However you must not use that to project forward for the full year as subsequent Qs will have Kiln 3 delivering, not Kiln 1. You have taken Q1 group production of 972mtV and x 4 to project 3888 mtV but you cannot do that for the reason given above.
In fact in the same Q1 Update the company reiterate the production guidance as follows:
“The Group production guidance of between 4,200 mtV and 4,400 mtV is weighted towards the second half of the year, based on the commissioning of Kiln 3 which has commenced. Kiln 3 will more than double Vanchem's production run rate once fully ramped up, with Bushveld targeting an annualised steady state production run rate of between 5,000 mtVp.a. and 5,400 mtVp.a. by the end of 2022.”
I would like to think they know more about this than you do so I think your 3888 mtV is somewhat fanciful based upon what we know or has been projected.
To say that at present output from Kiln 3 is a little uncertain is rather stating the ble*ding obvious and a little unnecessary until the first set of data is published. Until then the only relevant data is the projected numbers and they look fine don’t you agree?
Rather than trying to reinforce negativity why not do the logical thing and wait for confirmation of progress and numbers at Kiln 3. Then we can have a serious debate. Otherwise it just comes across as an attempt at scaremongering, even if that is absolutely not what you are trying to do.