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SuffolandWatt “ However, if they ever get it right ......”

Here we go again.

How about upgrading Vametco in 2021 which has resulted in sustainable production and the 2022 increased target being exceeded?

How about the successful commissioning of Vanchem kiln 3 as promised resulting in Q4 highest production at Vanchem since BMN acquisition?

How about group production in Q4 and full 2022 highest since BMN became a producer?

How about successfull investment in Invinity resulting in several $million profit when shares sold?

I could go on but the point is that destroys your silly statement above.

It is true that not all targets have been achieved (often for reasons beyond BMN control) but to imply that they never hit targets is simply a lie and an insult to the BoD. It has nothing to do with balance. It is simply misinformation.

And loudspeaker posters like Marc seem to be happy to spread those fears.

Marc what makes you think your so called balanced view on BMN is any more balanced than other shareholders? Sounds rather arrogant to me when combined with your ‘hopium’ jibe. You think you have more insight than everyone else?

You see negatives, I see positives.

And as if to emphasise the point Dollar Rand now 18.28

Marc

Today you are talking about sentiment and ‘FEAR’ and not breaking out of this downtrend. But would you agree with me that today we have seen a small number of large sells but a larger number of smaller buys? That suggests to me that the sentiment is quite positive but that the one or more sellers have unloaded a lot of shares. If I am correct I would expect the sp to rise again when they have finished.

On 15 April you wrote:

“Dollar rand looks like it’s topped out, likely to decline from here.”

At that time the rate was 18.02. Now it is 18.20. Not doing exactly what you predicted is it? Several of the professional forecasts that I have read expect the Dollar Rand to rise in 2023. Why would you post the opposite?

The day before that you speculated on dilution coming, despite the fact that FM tries to avoid unnecessary dilution and has stated that 2023 will not be a year of heavy capital investment, that they are currently profitable (my opinion) and have a large stockpile some of which could be sold to service some of the debt. Your entire argument was based upon the release and then removal of a video. Very circumstantial not to mention the video could be targeting customers (just speculation on my part).

Just curious why a proper shareholder would post so much negative speculation. Doesn’t make sense unless you are hoping to influence a share price drop in order to buy more. I don’t disagree with anyone wanting the cheapest price to buy. Not sure that I am so comfortable with posters apparently trying to colour sentiment and influence a downward sp movement.

Agreed Chris. It is very interesting to compare BMN in Q4 2018 (V price spike) with BMN in Q4 2022.

In Q4 2018 BMN owned 74% of Vametco. Vametco produced 567 mtV. Of that total 420 mtV was attributable to BMN.

In Q4 2022 BMN owned 74% of Vametco and 100% of Vanchem. Q4 was a record period for group production at 1184 mtV comprising Vametco at 812 mtV and Vanchem at 372mtV (a record Q for Vanchem in BMNs ownership and rising). Thus production attributable to BMN in Q4 was 973 mtV.

So vanadium production attributable to BMN in Q4 2022 was 132% more than in Q4 2018 at the height of the price spike.

Thanks to the vision and hard work of BMNs BoD and all employees this is a very different company. They own two plants both of which have been successfully upgraded and likely to generate another record year of production in 2023. They are about to commission a brand new electrolyte manufacturing facility in East London and have a significant interest in a VRFB company.

This is a much larger and more diverse company today than in 2018. It will not require anything like the price spike then to generate very large profit.

And in my opinion it is only a matter of time when that is clearly demonstrated to the wider market and in turn stimulates a significant share price rerate.

Just my opinion.

Unfortunately Loudspeaker the internet has given these bedroom trolls a platform to become keyboard warriors. Very sad individuals with nothing better to do with their time than try to provoke and annoy. It certainly isn’t ‘normal’ behaviour.

Stool I have explained my interest in BMN. If it was too difficult for you to understand so be it. I am not repeating it.

Stool you have only been a member since 09 April so your post makes no sense.

However I will say this. My investment in BMN is for a number of reasons, some of which reflect my interest in narrowing the gap between rich and poor countries. I want to see a successful SA economy that will help its population to raise living standards. I have had an interest in tackling climate change over several decades partly through my profession. Put simply I like the renewables plus energy storage proposition and I support it with my time and money. It has taken humanity far to long to wake up to the dangers of climate change but that is slowly changing.

Fortune Mojopelo is one of the few individuals that I have met that has the capacity, drive and strategic vision to help to deliver this in Africa, and who has the integrity necessary for me to trust my investment with him. I also happen to like the man.

I did some trading in my first few years of investing but I did not have much interest in it as unlike some here I don’t worship money. There comes a point in life when you realise money can’t help you. I am well past that point. So I remain a long term investor in BMN for reasons outlined above.

I don’t care what advice some anonymous AIM trader claims to have given me. It is not relevant as I have my own reasons for supporting BMN. If Fortune helps SA on its path to improve the lives of its population and helps to deliver a carbon free future I will be happy and as a bonus that success is likely to generate a much higher share price. That will further please me or perhaps my beneficiaries.

Fortunately Stool we live in a country where our Government is neither corrupt no unpopular …. Haha.

I am not sure that any UK voter should be judging South Africa.

Thank you Disgruntled. Kind words. People can disagree but still have room for humanity.

Paul

Despite what some think this is exactly why Fortune is so important for the long term success of the company. His strategic thinking goes beyond the time frame of many pi’s who just don’t seem to get it. I do and that is why I support his leadership of the company.

He is ahead of the field and the operational improvements over the last two years put BMN in a very strong position as a vanadium miner and processor. We may even start to see benefits from the energy storage business going forward.

You have to be in it ti win it. I love that cliche!

Thanks for posting Olly4. Very interesting interview with regard to BMN and its role in SA.

Marc way to much speculation for me. Fortune is very cautious about unnecessary dilution and at this point in time it is not necessary.

The expansion plans are clearly linked to sustainable production at the 5000 to 5500 mtV pa as outlined in RNSs. Capital requirements are low for 2023 and the business is likely to be making healthy profits in 2023 so far. They have a significant stockpile of market ready product which further increased in Q4 (1184 mtV produced and 905 mtV sold) and should be in a position to settle a significant part of the debt in cash, with talks already underway to renegotiate the balance if necessary.

So whilst you present an interesting piece of circumstantial evidence plus your interpretation (and I certainly won’t say you are wrong) I can’t see any reason why BMN would need further dilution if that is you are suggesting.

In time no doubt all will be revealed.

HMHG the RNS to which you refer is an operational update, not a financial report. You may have to wait until June for that.Q

As for group cash costs yes year on year they were up by 6.4% vs 2021. This appears to be largely due to Vanchem costs which were affected by interruptions to production due to closure of Kiln 1 and commissioning of Kiln 3, plus 200 mtV of production lost through load shedding in H2.

The above is old news.

What is far more interesting is that group costs were DOWN 13.1% Q4 vs Q3 2022 and DOWN 5.7% Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021. So BMN enjoyed falling costs towards the end of the year. Remember that production at Vanchem steadily increased during 2022 following Kiln 3 commissioning. See below for Vanchem Q production from Kiln 3 in 2022 (mtV):

2022 Q2 - 191
2022 Q3 - 350
2022 Q4 - 372

This would help reduce fixed costs per mtV, though of course offset to some extent by load shedding. However the good news is that BMN now have an agreement in place that should soften the impact of load shedding and they anticipate continued increases in production at Vanchem that should further reduce costs.

That same RNS also revealed Q4 to be the highest Q group production total mtV and 2022 to be the highest yearly group production total since BMN became a producer. That was great news!

And of course the RNS confirmed that BELCO was on track to complete commissioning in H1, as per target.

And on the subject of targets the money spent at Vametco was to achieve a sustainable level of production, supported by proper annual maintenance to avoid unforeseen shutdowns. So successful we’re they at this upgrade that Vametco exceeded its already increased production target in 2022.

I hope the successes recorded in Q4 continue into 2023 which has the potential to be a very good year for BMN if V price remains positive as expected due to increasing demand from VRFB projects.

Interesting marc001. Given that BMN are profitable and have stated that capital requirements are very low for 2023 why do you think they would need a cash raise?

And don’t forget the significant amount of market ready stock.

Just curious.

ARC in their last analyst report produced a share price of 12p based upon dollar rand average of 17 and V price of $40 kgV. That is not far short of a 200% increase on today’s price.

So far this year the Rand Dollar has averaged 18+ and continues to do so, increasing margins vs forecast.

The Vanadium price has pulled back a bit in recent weeks but has averaged more than $40 kgV for most of this year with BMNs largest market (US) being significantly higher.

BMN are likely to have been producing significantly higher profit in Q1 and into Q2 than ARC assumed.

I am sure many are sceptical of Analyst forecasts but they do sometimes get it right if major parameters remain unchanged. Whether or not the 12p share price is accurate is not the point. What they are saying is that with above V price and Dollar Rand at their assumed price in 2023 the share price should be much higher than today.

And those assumptions have so far proved to be conservative!

HMHG that was not being discussed but I will be happy to once Coffeecups has acknowledged that he was not telling the truth as proven by the last three CEO salaries ( facts, evidence don’t you love it?)

Now tell me HMHG given those numbers do you think Coffeecups was correct? Remember you have the numbers in front of you so no excuses for getting it wrong ( this is not footballs VAR!)

I’m still waiting for your evidence.

You saying it is so does not make it so. Evidence evidence evidence please.

I’m waiting.

Yawn Coffeecups Yawn yawn yawn.

And it’s Pdub to you.