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BMN has been valued far higher in the past. Location is no doubt part of the story but other factors must be considered.

The current valuation seems to be ridiculously cheap to those that know and understand the company and I am sure that the market will eventually wake up.

As to why the sp is where it is? Well I know they are many here that think they know THE reason. However in reality there are most likely a number of factors:

Lazy investing … can’t be bothered to research a complex operation like BMN?
Concerns over debt repayment?
Location?
Recent past losses (ignoring the fact that during this period much investment was needed to stabilise production and grow the business?
Disappointment at length of time to get Bushveld Energy driving revenue?
Shorting / trading taking advantage of poor communications?
Duferco sell off?
Concerns over load shedding at Vanchem (though measures are now in place to reduce the impact)

I am sure that there will be other factors too.

However that is looking backwards. I don’t spend much time doing that. BMN is now in a very strong position going forward based upon current circumstances:

Record group vanadium production in 2022 likely to be exceeded in 2023.
Costs falling as production has risen.
New revenue source in H1 with opening of the electrolyte plant.
Vanadium prices rising recently to a level that makes BMN very profitable.
Almost daily it seems that new VRFB projects are being announced which will increase demand for Vanadium and electrolyte.
A VERY favourable US Dollar / Rand rate and increasing. This effectively is widening the margin between revenue (in US$) and costs (in Rand).

Again there other positive factors beyond this list.

Whilst competitors seek funding and permissions for mining / processing BMN is already doing both and expecting a year with few new capital requirements.

IN MY OPINION 2023 looks very promising for BMN and its shareholders. I have been invested for nearly 10 years and as far as I am concerned the company is in such a strong position now that it’s prospects seem better than at any time in the past.

Some might think that the current share price is ridiculously low and may recognise this as an excellent entry point if they perceive the potential for substantial share price growth. That would be an opinion that I would not argue against!

As always just my opinion.

Justice done.

So Beginerman you are either a liar or provide the quote.

And BM please provide the quote where I said I “… consider a balanced view to be a negative view …?”

Beginnerman if my posts bring laughter into your life that’s great. In that dark place that you appear to inhabit you clearly need cheering up.

However others less .. er .. superficial than you may find some of my posts helpful. If so then that makes me happy too.

Brilliant answer HarChris. The troll needs reminding that this is a discussion bb. It is completely legitimate to take known facts and discuss how that might shape the future. Your reminder that the projections would be modified as new facts become available was very appropriate.

Every single investor on AIM will no doubt consider possible future share price movements in any company they invest in. Therefore these bbs are the perfect opportunity for such discussions to take place providing they are supported by known facts. That is exactly epwhat happens here, apart from the nonsense posts by trolls.

Yes I know all that HarChris. ARCM has been around long enough if paying attention to also know that. Hence my question why is that important?

Why is that important to you ARCM?

… in Cornwall!

In the recent analyst’s report by ARC they assumed a V price of $40 kgV and a Dollar Rand rate of 17.00 to produce an un-risked NAV of 16.5p per share and a risked NAV (x 0.7) of 12p per share.

However both those numbers have been exceeded already. If that trend is sustained then those numbers change substantially upwards.

Factor in big improvement in sentiment once clear how debt is dealt with and who knows where this share price could rise too. Some investors might find that an attractive proposition.

Production and electrolyte sales due H1 should impact on revenue profit and sentiment too.

Of course there are a number of assumptions included but whatever the exchange rate and V price over the next year it should produce a higher share price, possibly a much higher one.

Now I am sure many of us to a greater or lesser extent take analyst forecasts with a pinch of salt. However at least they give solid reasoning for their forecast and the accuracy of their assumptions will impact upon outcomes.

Up to you to look at what the company is doing and form your own opinion. I don’t give specific share price predictions as there are too many variables, so I stick to general conclusions such as there is the potential here for considerable share price growth subject to favourable production, costs, V price and Dollar Rand. Those factors all look very positive right now.

Just my opinion

BMN has been valued far higher in the past. Location is no doubt part of the story but other factors must be considered.

The current valuation seems to be ridiculously cheap to those that know and understand the company and I am sure that the market will eventually wake up.

As to why the sp is where it is? Well I know they are many here that think they know THE reason. However in reality there are most likely a number of factors:

Lazy investing … can’t be bothered to research a complex operation like BMN?
Concerns over debt repayment?
Location?
Recent past losses (ignoring the fact that during this period much investment was needed to stabilise production and grow the business?
Disappointment at length of time to get Bushveld Energy driving revenue?
Shorting / trading taking advantage of poor communications?
Duferco sell off?
Concerns over load shedding at Vanchem (though measures are now in place to reduce the impact)

I am sure that there will be other factors too.

However that is looking backwards. I don’t spend much time doing that. BMN is now in a very strong position going forward based upon current circumstances:

Record group vanadium production in 2022 likely to be exceeded in 2023.
Costs falling as production has risen.
New revenue source in H1 with opening of the electrolyte plant.
Vanadium prices rising recently to a level that makes BMN very profitable.
Almost daily it seems that new VRFB projects are being announced which will increase demand for Vanadium and electrolyte.
A VERY favourable US Dollar / Rand rate and increasing. This effectively is widening the margin between revenue (in US$) and costs (in Rand).

Again there other positive factors beyond this list.

Whilst competitors seek funding and permissions for mining / processing BMN is already doing both and expecting a year with few new capital requirements.

IN MY OPINION 2023 looks very promising for BMN and its shareholders. I have been invested for nearly 10 years and as far as I am concerned the company is in such a strong position now that it’s prospects seem better than at any time in the past.

Some might think that the current share price is ridiculously low and may recognise this as an excellent entry point if they perceive the potential for substantial share price growth. That would be an opinion that I would not argue against!

TA remind me why you are qualified to judge me?

Not invested.
On at least a second a/c
Not demonstrated any in-depth understanding of BMN

No just another wind up merchant.

Now as far as being a target is concerned I am delighted to be a target. When trolls or miseries have nothing left to counter the positive progress that BMN has made over the last 2 years (fact) all they have left is to attack the messenger. The more that happens the happier I am.

Trolls (bullies) do not like people standing up to them or going on the offensive. Well TA I am happy to do both when lies and misleading posts are involved. I know that I and some others are very difficult adversaries for you because we know the company so much better than you and you cannot hoodwink us with negative rubbish.

I use published factual information as the basis for my posts plus my own knowledge of the CEO. I always try to justify my opinions so that others can agree or disagree. TA you do nothing to add to the story because you are a wind up merchant bystander that is too lazy to fully investigate this company and are therefore incapable of adding anything meaningful to the debate.

That is fine by me but expect to be corrected when you or anyone else posts nonsense. No matter how much you protest nothing will change unless you start posting sensible comments fully backed up with evidence.

If you wish to characterise me as policing the bb that is fine with me. Just more cliched cobblers. If you wish to characterise me as loving the CEO that is fine by me. Just more cliched cobblers. If you wish to challenge the CONTENT of my posts then you had better be well researched. If I make a factual error I am always happy to be corrected (yes even by trolls like yourself) but I feed off shallow baseless comments and will throw them right back at you.

Have a nice day.

Cindercone I trust you can read?

In case you find that particular skill a challenge let me help! In the quote you used from my post I clearly used the word “… IF …” Why do you think I did that? Just for decoration? Let me help you again. I used IF (and in upper case for emphasis) to indicate that I recognise that it might not turn out that way. That is called … BALANCE

People invest for positive reasons. My post indicates what could happen if all goes well whilst pointing out that there are variables that may not go according to plan.

I don’t mind trolls and others trying to trap me but please be a bit more intelligent in the process. I do get tired with dealing with sloppy responses or just plain stupidity.

Lindon that is so not true. The published numbers tell a very different story to last year. If you can’t admit even that ….

I went to great lengths to point out that nothing is certain but as you well know I also stressed that if things continue as they are now (or better) then this looks like being a very positive year.

You be as negative (sorry … balanced) as you like. I will stick to looking at reality.

Tropical- Ape don’t be such an idiot. I am very positive here because I see such remarkable operational progress over the last few years. I do not try to present an artificial sense of balance. I say it as I see it.

And by the way TA a troll like yourself, not invested and existing solely to wind up existing investors, is the very last person on this planet to lecture others on balance. Back to your bedroom young man.

The point is LUCAN I would like to see you add a positive response to the much improved position that BMN is in at the start of 2023.

However I will give up on that as you appear to have a different perspective.

I would say it’s a fine line between balance and negativity.

HarChris thank you for your response which I agree with.

All I would add is that my earlier post was deliberately conservative in order to avoid accusations of ramping. I agree it is quite possible if all goes well that profit could be higher than I mentioned but of course this involves significant assumptions.

LUCAN again in response to one of your posts I would ask you to give an honest response to this. Given the numbers we are aware of now for the first part of 2023 do you think they indicate a healthier financial position now compared to 2022?

If you do then the reference to 2022 becomes irrelevant. We are looking forward not backwards.

LUCAN you most certainly are no fool. You have easy access to the same numbers I am seeing. So I ask you based upon current numbers and circumstances and assuming no major negative shift do you think that BMN look like making a significant profit in 2023?

Please don’t put negative qualifications to your answer … I have already done this in the paragraph above and in my previous post. Just a straightforward response given what we know right now.

Here is something to think about whether you are already invested or are watching BMN as a possible buy.

Is it normal on any stock market you care to choose and in particular the mining sector for a company to be valued at less than its annual profit? I am no expert on this so a genuine question.

Hypothetically let’s take BMN and consider some numbers.

LSE showing current valuation £56 million.
IF all goes well including reduced load shedding and BMN produces 5000 mtV in 2023, and IF Vanadium price averages $45 kgV for 2023, and if AISC comes in at say $34 kgV, that could produce a margin of $11 kgV.

So 5,000 mtV at margin of $11,000 per mtV gives a profit figure of $55 million. That is more or less the current M/C. Is that normal or would that make BMN ridiculously undervalued, even taking into account the debt?

Now I appreciate that there are lots of assumptions there and things might not be as positive as that. Having said that the outlook for Vanadium demand looks very positive, particularly with the growing number of VRFB projects being announced, and there are restraints on expanding supply. That suggests a rising Vanadium price over the short to medium term.

It seems unlikely that the South African economy will suddenly strengthen in the next 12 months so expect the Dollar Rand to remain high and possibly increase further, thus increasing margins for BMN (costs in Rand but revenue in US$).

Both plants have been successfully refurbished so barring unforeseen circumstances I expect a record production total in 2023 and more falls in costs.

So whilst I am certainly not going to predict profit for 2023 I acknowledge that it is possible that the profit will exceed valuation unless the share price increases (and frankly I expect a significant re-rate once profits become visible to the market.)

So I repeat is it normal for annual profits to equal or exceed valuation for a fully functioning mining and processing business like BMN?

I have said it many times but I repeat that 2023 is looking very good for BMN and that should translate into good returns for shareholders at some point.

Just my opinion.