Member Info for Pdub

Cracked up with laughter when habitual liar HMHG said posting here was a hobby !!!!

What a sad sad individual.

I would add that you chose to question the H1 target for completion of commissioning of electrolyte plant, something that is largely in the control of BMN with to ares of the business that have been affected by factors beyond BMNs control. That’s comparing apples with oranges.

Had you looked at their performance against targets where they had total control it would have painted a very different picture and perhaps a more accurate one.

Eg
Upgrade Vametco Achieved
Sustainable production at Vametco Achieved
Increased Vametco production target Achieved
Commissioning of Kiln 3 Vanchem Achieved

When set against those achievements that were not constrained by significant external forces and totally within BMN’s ability to deliver then the commissioning of the electrolyte plant in H1 appears to be a very reasonable target. Certainly BMN would have some explaining to do if that were not to be achieved but there is absolutely nothing to suggest that they won’t deliver.

That is why I believe your post at 18.31 was unreasonable and required a response.

And similarly I was responding to precisely what you wrote … or didn’t write.

Sistersoffate you are quite correct. I was not simply a salesperson and nor is FM. The sector I worked in was driven by targets particularly at my level of management, but those targets were far more complicated than sell x you get a bonus. I wish it had been that simple!

That is also the case for Fortune. However we are not talking about personal targets we are discussing the plans for the company and giving the market an indication of what it hopes to achieve. Fortune can only give a target based upon what he thinks is possible at the time. I can just imagine what the critics would say if he had not given timescales. With that goes risk but I guess that comes with his job.

You are correct. You are entitled to your opinion. Not sure why you chose to say that. After all you gave it and I responded. That is how it works. Sorry but that’s life.

In previous post should say had Vametco achieved 880 mtV in Q4. However 812 mtV was impressive anyway.

Just out of interest folks might like to know a few more numbers.

BMN first became a producer in 2017 when they acquired their first stake in Vametco.

2019 Q4 was the most successful Vametco Q production at 880 mtV since coming into BMN ownership.
2022 Q4 was the second highest Vametco Q production at 812 mtV.
2022 Q4 was the highest Vanchem Q production since BMN acquisition at 372 mtV, despite load shedding.
2022 was the record group production year for BMN at 3852 mtV, despite load shedding impact on Vanchem.

So in terms of production BMN did very well in 2022 compared to previous years despite lost time to commissioning Kiln 3 at Vanchem and load shedding.

It was clearly not unreasonable to target 3900 mtV for 2022. Target missed by just 58 mtV. Had Vametco equalled it’s best Q total of 880 mtV then target would have been reached despite losing 200 mtV of production at Vanchem to load shedding.

You would have to be very miserable to deny the prospect of another record year of production coming up in 2023 going by the facts.

How sad.

Correct version.

Welcome back Sistersoffate. However I note that you have not changed your attitude since last posting, despite the huge progress made by BMN. You make some interesting points. Let’s take this one:

“That’s a bit like saying, at the end of October, having told us that you still expect to make target production of 3900-4100 mtv despite record load shedding in Q3………. And then failing …”

Hmm. You are quite right that they missed the target by just 58 mtV. Yes that is correct just 58 mtV. And that is despite losing 200 mtV from loadshedding in H2. A problem completely out of their control and virtually unpredictable in impact. They had to give a target and under the circumstances did remarkably well to even get close given the challenges.

However that is not what I find interesting about your comment. It is that fact that you ‘forgot’ to mention that so effective was the upgrade work at Vametco that they not only achieved sustainable production but raised the Vametco 2022 production target from 2450-2550 mtV to 2550-2650 mtV … and then exceeded that! Vametco production for 2022 was 2705 (and in Q4 812 mtV). This was a very impressive performance yet you failed to mention it. I wonder why? Deliberate or simply not well enough researched?

And given that they have in place agreements that should reduce the impact of planned loadshedding at Vanchem 2023 looks even more promising in terms of production. 2022 was a record group production year for BMN and it looks likely that 2023 will set a new record barring unforeseen circumstances. Yet you chose not to mention that either.

Again you seem to only state part of the story with BE carve out.

“Or, stating exactly 2 months ago, you ‘expect’ BE carve out to complete by end of Q1…….and then failing!”

If you have any knowledge of BMN you should know that this is dependent on resolution of the MUST prospectus with the FCA. No one could possibly know how long this would take and all BMN can do is wait. Completely beyond their control.

You would be the first to complain if BMN did not explain what they doing and setting targets. Unfortunately no company can control external events that significantly impact on the timetable of events. What is impressive with BMN is that they continue to upgrade and expand operations despite the many challenges, even if timelines have had to slip.

That is the reality of building a complex mining, processing and energy storage business in the 21st century. BMN have positioned themselves to have a strong performance in 2023 and that is what the investment and growth of the last few years has been about. I am sure everyone would have liked things to have happened more quickly but certain events have been totally beyond their control. Again the reality is that they have coped with these challenges very well and I hope investors will begin to see a return over the coming year.

Just my opinion.

Apologies for another typo. Paragraph 3 should read H2 not H1. I have reposted to avoid further confusion.

HMHG I am pleased that Coffeecups made money. After all that is what we all want to do. If Coffeecups is the type that wants to brag about his successes that is fine by me. So HMHG what is your point?

Oh and I see you are lying yet again: “… when others are facing financial ruin.…” Once a liar always a liar it would seem. Pathetic!

Welcome back Sistersoffate. However I note that you have not changed your attitude since last posting, despite the huge progress made by BMN. You make some interesting points. Let’s take this one:

“That’s a bit like saying, at the end of October, having told us that you still expect to make target production of 3900-4100 mtv despite record load shedding in Q3………. And then failing …”

Hmm. You are quite right that they missed the target by just 58 mtV. Yes that is correct just 58 mtV. And that is despite losing 200 mtV from loadshedding in H1. A problem completely out of their control and virtually unpredictable in impact. They had to give a target and under the circumstances did remarkably well to even get close given the challenges.

However that is not what I find interesting about your comment. It is that fact that you ‘forgot’ to mention that so effective was the upgrade work at Vametco that they not only achieved sustainable production but raised the Vametco 2022 production target from 2450-2550 mtV to 2550-2650 mtV … and then exceeded that! Vametco production for 2022 was 2705 (and in Q4 812 mtV). This was a very impressive performance yet you failed to mention it. I wonder why? Deliberate or simply not well enough researched?

And given that they have in place agreements that should reduce the impact of planned loadshedding at Vanchem 2023 looks even more promising in terms of production. 2022 was a record group production year for BMN and it looks likely that 2023 will set a new record barring unforeseen circumstances. Yet you chose not to mention that either.

Again you seem to only state part of the story with BE carve out.

“Or, stating exactly 2 months ago, you ‘expect’ BE carve out to complete by end of Q1…….and then failing!”

If you have any knowledge of BMN you should know that this is dependent on resolution of the MUST prospectus with the FCA. No one could possibly know how long this would take and all BMN can do is wait. Completely beyond their control.

You would be the first to complain if BMN did not explain what they doing and setting targets. Unfortunately no company can control external events that significantly impact on the timetable of events. What is impressive with BMN is that they continue to upgrade and expand operations despite the many challenges, even if timelines have had to slip.

That is the reality of building a complex mining, processing and energy storage business in the 21st century. BMN have positioned themselves to have a strong performance in 2023 and that is what the investment and growth of the last few years has been about. I am sure everyone would have liked things to have happened more quickly but certain events have been totally beyond their control. Again the reality is that they have coped with these challenges very well and I hope investors will begin to see a return over the coming year.

Just my opinion.

Thank.you Cindercone.

Fair enough Ben. That typo was meant to be H2. Apologies. Where does it say significant? And do you disagree that H2 should see sales of electrolyte beginning?

By the way it is nit impossible for first sales to be in H1 but I do think H2 is more likely.

Fair enough ARCM.

And just in case you or anyone else feels the need to ask where is Pdub, has he sold out, blah blah blah I will take this opportunity to give advance notice. I need to have surgery on my right hand at some point in the next month or so (no date yet). I am predominantly right handed so it is possible that I won’t be typing for some time afterwards.

Not raising this for sympathy. Merely stopping anyone from inventing nonsense about my absence as and when.

Oh do shut up Beginerman. You are like the little child who didn’t get their own way and got caught out for lying. It is you that need to grow up and accept that this time you got it wrong.

Just to keep it FACTUAL Ben this is what I actually wrote:

“… They have formed a partnership with the IDC and have invested in a new electrolyte manufacturing plant which is almost complete. This will come online in H1 and just as the VRFB business is picking up pace globally. Timing could not be better... “ Where did I say immediate and or significant income?

And where did I suppress anyone’s view Ben. Please don’t make this stuff up. I hope that you are not suggesting it is ok for others to disagree with me but not the other way round? It is garbage to suggest that if you challenge a view you are suppressing it. That is nonsense. In fact it is what these bbs promote.

Cindercone I respect your opinion even though it is based upon no substantive evidence whatsoever. We will just have to agree to disagree.

Ben commissioning is scheduled for completion in H1. They are already talking to potential clients.

From recent RNS:

“ The Company would like to clarify that whilst cold commissioning of the electrolyte manufacturing facility has commenced, hot commissioning and production is, as previously advised, due to be completed in H1 2023. Further, whilst progress is being made in the qualification process with manufacturers to use its electrolyte, the Company is not providing any production guidance, at the current time, as production will be informed by sales and off-take contracts with Original Equipment Manufacturers, discussions of which are ongoing.”

Why talk this down? This is a new revenue stream of a high value manufactured product which will be sold into an expanding global market. Second guessing timescales is pointless. It will be a revenue stream and additional market for BMN vanadium sales and that is very positive, despite what Cindercone thinks.

Talk to admin Beginerman. Now shut up and move on.

In future try harder to be honest.

By now anyone following the BMN story should realise that the vanadium mining and processing business is now producing record tonnage pa and with costs down, Vanadium prices well above longterm average and rising and the Dollar Rand exchange working in their favour the company is becoming increasingly profitable. So what about the energy side of the business that is the latest growth part of the business?

The VRFB energy storage industry is a new and essential part of switching from hydrocarbons to renewable energy at a global scale. The BMN BoD had the foresight to see what was coming and have spent time and money positioning the company to both lead and benefit from the opportunities presented by this new industry.

To that end they have taken a number of steps:

Stabilised and increased production at Vametco and Vanchem which provides sufficient extra Vanadium production to supply the manufacture of electrolyte whilst still supplying their core market the steel industry.

Identified the issue that early VRFB companies were too small to succeed so BMN acted as the catalyst to bring Avalon and Red together to form Invinity, which is proving to be a more successful incarnation than the earlier companies. This company is a potential customer for BMNs vanadium and electrolyte. And with BE and Enerox we appear to be awaiting the MUST / FCA outcome before further progress is made

With Avalon they developed the rental model for electrolyte to solve the problem of volatile Vanadium prices. Once again they led and now others follow and this is likely to be a significant source of revenue.

They have formed a partnership with the IDC and have invested in a new electrolyte manufacturing plant which is almost complete. This will come online in H1 and just as the VRFB business is picking up pace globally. Timing could not be better.

The revenue streams will include electrolyte sales (beginning in H1) for BMN and revenue from rental agreements, although this may eventually be for BE.

There will no doubt be other revenue streams but these are the two immediate opportunities. And of course they are creating another market for BMNs own vanadium output.

I think it is fair to say that it has taken the global VRFB industry longer to develop than most had hoped but things appear to be moving at increasing pace now. Perfect timing for BMN to exploit this new market as they open the electrolyte plant and hive off BE.

Just my opinion.

One point that I would like to qualify is the Dollar Rand rate. When ARC produced their share price forecast of 12p they assumed a Dollar Rand of 17. Now for much of Q1 it has been significantly higher, mostly between 18 and 19. A strong Dollar v Rand widens margins as costs are mostly local in Rand but revenue is in US$.

Recently the Dollar Rand rate has pulled back a little as is currently below 18, but that is still significantly higher than the number assumed by ARC.

In fairness opinion amongst analysts appears to be split with some forecasting the Dollar Rand to go even higher but other seeing a strengthening of the Rand. Be interesting seeing where it goes through 2023. Selfishly I want it to work for BMN but on the other hand I don’t want that to be at the expense of the South African people.

Just my opinion.