Member Info for Pdub

Tropical_Ape I agree with you about healthy debate providing both sides are adding useful and informed comment. Unfortunately that is not reflected in the content of the trolls posting today (or most days for that matter).

The childish “get rid of CEO” “so could go to 0p” is simply a waste of everyone’s time.

I would be delighted if you were willing (and able?) to add useful and informative posts but so far you have done the opposite. Surprise me …

Is there a teachers strike today? I see the children have been let loose on mummy’s computer.

I suppose they provide entertainment …

ARCM you are one of many who may be down on their investment. Very common with AIM companies. However please stop trying to drag everyone else into your negativity.

The company is in the strongest position it has been in since its creation in my opinion. The CEO has delivered on his promises and continues to do so.

I believe the market simply needs to have confirmation of the strengthening financial position. That will come.

All you are doing is feeding the trolls. Your moaning won’t change a thing

Try looking forwards not backwards TA. Looks pretty good from here on.

Let’s look at your rather brief shopping list that completely lacks any substantial evidence.

Debt overhang. Announced in RNSs that discussions already underway to consider various solutions. I don’t expect a statement soon because if the level of profit that BMN should now be making is sustained throughout 2023 then much of that debt (if not all) could be paid back in cash. Add to that any profit from selling some of the market ready stock then those on the know will realise that with every passing week this is ‘issue’ is reducing. Even if some debt remains the terms and conditions of any renegotiation will be far more favourable due to the much improved financial health of the company. And remember that debt was incurred to sustain and increase production, not to keep the lights on. Exactly what you would expect from a well grown growth company.

Geopolitical risk. This is affecting every country and just about every company. Like everyone else BMN will just have to navigate through it, as it has been doing through Covid, global logistics issues, etc. and as you would expect a well run company to do. Ironically some of those issues are likely to lead to increased demand for high strength steel and therefore rising demand for Vanadium which in turn may cause further V price rises. Funny old world!

Limited if any battery storage demand. Well if ever any one here doubted that you are living in the past this nonsense statement is it. Almost weekly we are seeing the announcement of new VRFB projects. This tidal wave of VRFB growth is only going to increase and with it demand for Vanadium and electrolyte. BMN timing for completion of the electrolyte plant couldn’t be better.

Impaired assets. Reply? You need to produce specific numbers to back up that highly dubious statement. I look forward to reading them.

Disgruntled workforce. Rubbish. Multi year pay agreement in place. Proper well paid jobs in a country rife with unemployment.

Incompetent leadership. Blatant lie defying all evidence to the contrary and see comments above.

HMHG a very lazy and rather pathetic attempt to justify negativity. Next …

In the recent analyst’s report by ARC they assumed a V price of $40 kgV and a Dollar Rand rate of 17.00 to produce an un-risked NAV of 16.5p per share and a risked NAV (x 0.7) of 12p per share.

However both those numbers have been exceeded already. In both US and China (aka Asia) vanadium price already around $45 kgV and in Europe it is 41.25 kgV. If we assume over the next year an average V price of $45 and a Dollar Rand of $18.00 (at time of writing it is $18.32) then those numbers change substantially upwards.

This would produce an un-risked NAV of 27.8p per share and a risked NAV of 19.46p per share using the numbers from ARC report. Factor in big improvement in sentiment once clear how debt is dealt with and who knows where this share price could rise too. That suggests an increase of at least 300% on the current share price. Some investors might find that an attractive proposition.

Production and electrolyte sales due H1 should impact on revenue profit and sentiment too.

Of course there are a number of assumptions included but whatever the exchange rate and V price over the next year it should produce a higher share price, possibly a much higher one.

Now I am sure many of us to a greater or lesser extent take analyst forecasts with a pinch of salt. However at least they give solid reasoning for their forecast and the accuracy of their assumptions will impact upon outcomes.

Up to you to look at what the company is doing and form your own opinion. I don’t give specific share price predictions as there are too many variables, so I stick to general conclusions such as there is the potential here for considerable share price growth subject to favourable production, costs, V price and Dollar Rand. Those factors all look very positive right now.

HMHG I invite you to substantiate your comment about the sp being a bit toppy.

I would like you to list and explain the factors that lead you to that shallow conclusion and include published factual details that support your ideas. For balance you will need to include positives in your statement in the same way that I considered the positives and negatives in my post.

I know that this goes completely against your troll training (and possibly payment method) but it is necessary to demonstrate that you are capable of intelligent thought and balanced perspectives. So far you have successfully hidden that from your readers.

Failure to comply with my request I suspect will lead most to conclude that you are nothing but a negative troll with an agenda but lacking any arguments of substance that can counter the opinion that BMN is now better placed for potential share price growth than at any point in its history in terms of factors that the company can control.

Now is your time to compose an intelligent and thoughtful post. I hope you don’t let me down …. again.

BMN has been valued far higher in the past. Location is no doubt part of the story but other factors must be considered.

The current valuation seems to be ridiculously cheap to those that know and understand the company and I am sure that the market will eventually wake up.

As to why the sp is where it is? Well I know they are many here that think they know THE reason. However in reality there are most likely a number of factors:

Lazy investing … can’t be bothered to research a complex operation like BMN?
Concerns over debt repayment?
Location?
Recent past losses (ignoring the fact that during this period much investment was needed to stabilise production and grow the business?
Disappointment at length of time to get Bushveld Energy driving revenue?
Shorting / trading taking advantage of poor communications?
Duferco sell off?
Concerns over load shedding at Vanchem (though measures are now in place to reduce the impact)

I am sure that there will be other factors too.

However that is looking backwards. I don’t spend much time doing that. BMN is now in a very strong position going forward based upon current circumstances:

Record group vanadium production in 2022 likely to be exceeded in 2023.
Costs falling as production has risen.
New revenue source in H1 with opening of the electrolyte plant.
Vanadium prices rising recently to a level that makes BMN very profitable.
Almost daily it seems that new VRFB projects are being announced which will increase demand for Vanadium and electrolyte.
A VERY favourable US Dollar / Rand rate and increasing. This effectively is widening the margin between revenue (in US$) and costs (in Rand).

Again there other positive factors beyond this list.

Whilst competitors seek funding and permissions for mining / processing BMN is already doing both and expecting a year with few new capital requirements.

IN MY OPINION 2023 looks very promising for BMN and its shareholders. I have been invested for nearly 10 years and as far as I am concerned the company is in such a strong position now that it’s prospects seem better than at any time in the past.

Some might think that the current share price is ridiculously low and may recognise this as an excellent entry point if they perceive the potential for substantial share price growth. That would be an opinion that I would not argue against!

DerryRhumba I realise that you have a strong vested interest in promoting nuclear power due to your investment in RR but to dismiss so completely wind power for a country like the UK is in my opinion very misguided.

If the UK is ever to leave carbon based energy in the past then every form of renewables and possibly nuclear will need to be fully exploited and backed up with significant battery storage, providing the solutions are affordable and better for the environment than burning coal oil and gas.

It is not surprising that wind energy forms such a large part of this strategy for the UK and I expect that contribution to the energy mix to increase. That may not please some of the NIMBY fraternity, particularly onshore, but needs must.

Just my opinion.

Good to see Europe FeV still rising. All markets now very profitable for BMN.
ARC recent report forecast AISC for 2023 of $35 kgV.

Asia and US prices currently around $45 kgV and Europe well over 40 KgV.

Worth remembering that Vanchem gives flexibility in terms of product range as we saw in Q4 with a huge rise in V2O5 production. BMN can not only respond to variation in price of different regions (recently targeting high priced US market) but also can target individual products in response to price changes or customer need.

So how have prices changed since beginning of the year?

Europe V2O5 up from $8.9 to $10.2 lb. A rise of 14% since end of Q4.

Europe FeV up from $36.8 to $40.95 kgV. A rise of 11%.

China (Asia) FeV up from $40 to $45 kgV A rise of 12,5%.

Etc etc.

The profits must now be rolling in. Going to be interesting to see market response when this is confirmed!!

And to cap it all there is the Dollar Rand rate. Up from 17 at end of Q4 to 18.6 now. Costs in Rand, revenue in US$. Margins keep growing.

Not just my opinion … these are published FACTS.

And BMN expecting a record year for Vanadium production and will begin production of high value electrolyte in H1.

Have a nice day.

What ignorance you demonstrate HMHG.

There are only four primary Vanadium production plants outside of China. One in Brazil and 3 in South Africa, of which BMN own two!!!!!

From a company with nothing but potential in 2016 they have cleverly invested in existing plant rather than new greenfield sites. This has been achieved at far less cost and much much quicker time than building new. Of course there have been upgrade costs but the total spend has been far cheaper than new build and provided very significant revenue from day one of first acquisition in 2017 of a proportion of Vametco.

It has been hard work for the company during this growth phase and frustrating for shareholders BUT this building blocks are now in place to take advantage of the growing VRFB market and benefit from profitable Vanadium prices in all markets.

2023 has the potential to be an excellent year for BMN and hopefully it’s shareholders will get a very good return as better financials catch the attention of the market.

Just my opinion.

Eatstocks that is perhaps too simplistic. BMN has been valued far higher in the past yet as far as I am aware it was still in SA! Location is no doubt part of the story but other factors must be considered.

The current valuation seems to be ridiculously cheap to those that know and understand the company and I am sure that the market will eventually wake up.

As to why the sp is where it is? Well I know they are man here that think they know THE reason. However in reality there are most likely a number of factors:

Lazy investing … can’t be bothered to research a complex operation like BMN?
Concerns over debt repayment?
Location?
Recent past losses (ignoring the fact that during this period much investment was needed to stabilise production and grow the business?
Disappointment at length of time to get Bushveld Energy driving revenue?
Shorting / trading taking advantage of poor communications?
Duferco sell off?
Concerns over load shedding at Vanchem (though measures are now in place to reduce the impact)

I am sure that there will be other factors too.

However that is looking backwards. I don’t spend much time doing that. BMN is now in a very strong position going forward based upon current circumstances:

Record group vanadium production in 2022 likely to be exceeded in 2023.
Costs falling as production has risen.
New revenue source in H1 with opening of the electrolyte plant.
Vanadium prices rising recently to a level that makes BMN very profitable.
Almost daily it seems that new VRFB projects are being announced which will increase demand for Vanadium and electrolyte.
A VERY favourable US Dollar / Rand rate and increasing. This effectively is widening the margin between revenue (in US$) and costs (in Rand).

Again there other positive factors beyond this list.

Whilst competitors seek funding and permissions for mining / processing BMN is already doing both and expecting a year with few new capital requirements.

IN MY OPINION 2023 looks very promising for BMN and its shareholders. I have been invested for nearly 10 years and as far as I am concerned the company is in such a strong position now that it’s prospects seem better than at any time in the past.

And yet shares can still be bought now at what I consider to be a very very low price. Food for thought?

However worth noting that the Dollar Rand rate remains firmly higher than 18 which for those that don’t understand the significance means that the margin between costs (in Rand) and revenue (in US$) remains greater than in recent years just on that positive exchange rate.

Also both European V2O5 and FeV prices are increasing and that market is becoming more profitable for BMN. Asian and US markets already at around $45 kgV.

All in all a great time for the company to to be producing record levels of Vanadium following the upgrade of both plants. And then there is the new revenue stream set to begin possibly in H1 following completion of the electrolyte plant, and just when VRFB demand is taking off.

Perfect storm? Maybe!

Never far away Fosters.

However more a day for those that follow the share price rather than any focus on BMN itself which is my interest.

Please explain superzero.

Beginerman I did not bother with the rest of your question because it is totally hypothetical and does not fit any of the available evidence. So just your usual pathetic negativity.

Even IF what you described transpired I have to conclude either due to plain ignorance of the facts or deliberate deceit you failed to mention that BELCO is a joint venture with the IDC who would be liable to their share of costs in this totally imaginary scenario if yours.

Naughty boy misleading folks into thinking the costs would all by on BMN.

Beginerman don’t pretend to be adding balance when all you do is negative trolling. Here are quotes from the last 2 RNSs which CLEARLY state on course to be operational in H1.

RNS 21 Feb

“The Company would like to clarify that whilst cold commissioning of the electrolyte manufacturing facility has commenced, hot commissioning and production is, as previously advised, due to be completed in H1 2023”

RNS 11 Jan

“Bushveld Energy continues to make progress with both the Vametco hybrid mini-grid and the Bushveld Electrolyte Company ("BELCO") expected to be in operation during H1 2023.”

Now run along and play somewhere else.

Thank you for the positive responses to my earlier post. I deliberately kept numbers conservative. However there is a realistic possibility of even better numbers for 2023.

The global conditions that affect Vanadium demand such as increasing numbers of VRFB projects suggest further rises in Vanadium prices. It is not easy for a quick response on supply side and primary producers such as BMN would benefit greatly from such a scenario.

According to some analysts the Dollar Rand is likely to rise still further with at least one predicting 19 to be reached. This would improve BMN margins still further.

I have assumed a very conservative figure of 4500 mtV for 2023. If the steps being taken to reduce load shedding at Vanchem are successful production may well be higher.

I have made no allowance for revenue and profit from the new electrolyte plant which begins production in the next four months (H1).

It is not often that I have to accuse myself of being too negative but it seems that my earlier post may have been just that!

2023 looks like an exciting year for BMN in my opinion. The company’s operations and production are much stronger than in 2017 / 18 if only due to the 100% BMN owned Vanchem plant.

As always do your own research.

With AISC predicted to be $35 kgV with Dollar Rand at 17, the current rate of more than 18 should lead to costs a little lower than that figure. It is very possible that Vanadium price could average $45 or more kgV. US and Asia already there and Europe prices rising and now above $40 kgV.

If this continues to play out then BMN likely to be making around $10 kgV profit.

If production in 2023 comes in at a very conservative 4,500 mtV then a margin of $10 kgV produces profit of $45 million for 2023. Debt repayment more or less covered. Nice one.

I know pi’s love to think themselves experts on share price and why it isn’t doing this or that. Only got to look at today’s ‘experts’ telling us why the sp is where it is. It say nonsense … none of you know exactly why the sp is where it is.

That is exactly why I look at what the company is doing. BMN are in a far stronger position now than in 2017 / 2018 in terms of production operations.

With high production totals and falling costs, a strong and rising V price and favourable Dollar rand profits will be increasing.

The debt solution will become clearer once profit numbers start surfacing and I suspect that will trigger a share price response, although numerous other potential triggers exist including further significant V price rises.

Future looks very good to me based upon the above factors.

I see no evidence whatsoever of a lack of confidence in the CEO. That is purely the work of trolls and a few disgruntled pi’s.

Just my ooinion

Beginnerman perhaps you can wait until financials with a very positive flavour hit the market. Let’s see how things pan out then. BMN is quite a complicated business. I don’t think the wider market fully understands it and I accept that poor company PR has contributed to the problem. Therefore it is hardly surprising that the relatively small share if the market that have invested here know more about BMN than most and fully appreciate the potential.

As we saw on 2017 / 2018 sentiment can change very quickly and lead to very significant share price rises.

As for your point about posters on this bb there are many investors in BMN that are not LSE members or choose not to post. Fact. Evidence in the various Twitter groups. That invalidates your question.