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(Part 2)

Where BMN have been particularly clever was engaging with partnerships in the VRFB space, and in particular being the first to develop the electrolyte rental model with Avalon (now part of IES). The point of the rental model was to counter the very scenario that you touch upon … high V prices restraining the growing V market. We now see other companies following where BMN led. This has made VRFBs much more cost effective by spreading the high capital cost over the life of the VRFB. The construction of the electrolyte plant in East London is further evidence that Bushveld are confident if the viability of VRFBs even with rising V prices.

(Part 1)

Tron67 good to know that you have been following BMN.

No doubt you are aware that Fortune spoke of the sweet spot being $45 to $50 kgV and the V price is not there yet. It is some time since that comment so I suspect if you ask him now it would perhaps be a little higher.

Now if we dig a little deeper in to this perhaps it is not quite as straight forward as you suggest. BMN have cleverly placed themselves in the position that should prices go beyond that sweet spot they benefit greatly from high V prices into the steel industry. Clearly there would be some constraint on rising prices with the possibility of Niobium substitution. However Niobium is not as effective as Vanadium in rebar use and currently is at a higher price than Vanadium anyway. Supply restraints for Niobium limit how much response there is to rising demand and it would require a significant gap between V and N price to make it worth while for manufacturers to switch (inertia). Either way BMN would benefit from much greater margins, as in 2017 / 2018, and once that becomes apparent to the market there would no doubt be a similar share price response.

Interestingly in the recent analysts report by ARC they assumed a V price of $40 kgV and a Dollar Rand rate of 17.00 to produce an un-risked NAV of 16.5p per share and a risked NAV (x 0.7) of 12p per share.

However both those numbers have been exceeded already. If we assume over the next year an average V price of $45 kgV (quite conservative given current trends) and a Dollar Rand of $18.00 (see previous post) then those numbers change substantially upwards. This would produce an un-risked NAV of 27.8p per share and a risked NAV of 19.46p per share. Factor in big improvement in sentiment once clear how debt is dealt with and who knows where this share price could rise too.

Not a prediction, just a little positive food for thought.

My opinion only

Rising V price working for BMN in raising Revenue. But Dollar Rand rate also looking interesting.

Here is a forecast from tradingeconomics.com:

“ Looking ahead, we forecast US Dollar South African Rand to be priced at 17.9178 by the end of this quarter and at 19.3515 in one year, according to Trading Economics global macro models projections and analysts expectations.”

So costs in falling Rand falling but revenue in rising Dollar. Combined with rising V price margins could increase substantially in the coming year. BMN has the potential to become very profitable.

Just my opinion.

HaleSpur I think they made it clear that they already are targeting the highest priced US market!

Cindercone I am not sure where you get your numbers from. European V prices rose significantly throughout the whole of December 2022.

For example FeV rose from $31.9 on 01 December to $36.8 on 01 January 2023. Only then did prices level out. A similar pattern is true of European V2O5 prices. Link:

https://www.vanadiumprice.com

Thus Europe FeV prices have only been flattish for about 5 weeks, and even then there has been some small growth. European V2O5 prices have been rising again in last couple of weeks.

Cindercone we don’t know where BMN is currently selling.

What we do know is that they are very flexible in their marketing and will sell into markets most profitable (currently US). Excellent management by the way.

So why are China prices relevant? Well they may indicate direction of travel for other markets, but that is not necessarily the main relevance.

The China market became complicated by imposition of an import duty. There has been debate about who pays that. Normally you would expect duties to be paid by the importer. However let’s assume worst case and for some inexplicable reason BMN pays it. Either way it makes imported goods more expensive. That is after all it’s purpose.

If BMN are paying it then China prices become very relevant. If the gap between China prices and other markets becomes greater than the % duty then China once again becomes an attractive market.

VanadiumPrice gives China FeV $44 and Europe FeV $37.75. That 17% price gap is greater than the import tariff. If China prices continue to grow the gap with other markets then BMN May be attracted to that market despite the import duty. And that assumes BMN pay the duty.

Lots of ifs and buts but I hope it shows why China prices are of interest, quite apart from being over 50% of world market.

(Apologies previous post was draft form and not complete. Here is final version:)

… on AsianMetals.??

https://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html??

Largest rises ammonium metavanadate at 2.34% and V2O5 flake 98% at 2.21% overnight.

Perhaps this rise is being driven by rising demand for electrolyte from big VRFB projects in China. If so and with more VRFB projects being announced in other areas of the world we may see the V price rises in China being mirrored in other markets over the coming months.??

Reinforces my belief that 2023 could be a very positive year for BMN and its shareholders. Right product at right time.

??Just my opinion.

… on AsianMetals.

https://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

Just a thought. Largest rise ammonium metavanadate at 2.34% overnight. Perhaps this rise is being driven by rising demand for electrolyte from big VRFB projects in China.

If so and with more VRFB projects being announced in other areas of the world we may see the V price rises in China being mirrored in other markets over the coming months.

Reinforces my belief that 2023 could be a very positive year for BMN and its shareholders. Right product at right time.

Just my opinion.

I would have been disappointed if I had not been selected as a target on ADVFN. Those clowns are full of themselves so anyone they pick on is someone that threatens their lies and negativity with well researched info about BMN.

I am flattered to be so feared that they felt the need to create that false account but not a bit surprised. It is hard evidence that exposes them as liars.

For the avoidance of any doubt I am as committed to supporting FM and BMN as ever and for reasons that I have extensively given here. End of.

Welcome Driving. In my opinion a great entry point and excellent timing. Hope your investment does very well for you. 2023 looking very promising, particularly if Vanadium price holds up.

Hx good to see anther poster living in the past.

Try looking at the company today and it’s future prospects. It paints a very different story with operations looking very positive for 2023. You have done the negative bashing and ‘I am so much smarter than yo7 lot’ with the full benefit of hindsight. Now let’s see if you are honest enough to acknowledge the positives go8ng forward, and I don’t mean just lip service. Mis5 trolls dishonestly disregard the huge progress made over the last few years as it does not suit their agenda. Let’s see if you are any different.

V1per let’s get this straight . I recognise the negatives. Unlike you though I also post what they are doing about it.

Eg how many times have I mentioned 200 mtV of lost production at Vanchem but unlike you I provide balance by saying what they are doing about it. You don’t provide balance … only negativity.

Another difference between you and I is that I do my research. You are correct that they didn’t publish cash in bank. However they didn’t do that in Q2 and Q3 updates so they are just being consistent. You said cash situation is dire. That is a lie. You do not know the cash situation so stop lying.

Your nonsense about the plants is so ridiculous. Vametco has been upgraded and is producing at a sustainable rate. Job done. They have improved maintenance schedule to reduce further breakdowns. Your post is false and misleading.

Vanchem has had a complete refurbishment of Kiln 3 and again has now got a proper maintenance schedule in place to reduce breakdowns. Your post is false and misleading.

BELCO comes on stream in H1. This is a brand b new plant,

Minigrid comes on stream in H1. This is a brand new solar and storage system

I don’t mind debating here with anyone V1per but know this. I have a far greater knowledge of BMN than you do. If you don’t do proper research your nonsense will get torn to shreds and expose your lack of knowledge. Do you want to be like HMHG? It’s not a good look.

BMN management have worked very hard to get to this position and 2023 looks very exciting with good potential share price growth if V price remains positive (and demand is looking strong)

Just my opinion.

V1per stop lying. You don’t know what the current cash position is. It hasn’t been published as far as I am aware.

Talks about debt repayment are already underway.

Record year of production with Vametco excelling. Costs down. New electrolyte plant coming on line. Kiln 3 up and running successfully. Steps being taken both short and long term to reduce impact of load shedding at Vanchem.

Your comments about the plants are idiotic. They have already been upgraded. Good grief.

Multi year wage agreement in place

V price rising. Demand buoyant. VRFB industry starting to pick up pace .

2023 looking very exciting

Don’t be an idiot HMHG. Where has anyone said they are happy with the current share price? Stop lying.

Unlike you there are some who actually understand the operational achievements of the last few years and that will underpin the future share price … which is what intelligent investors are interested in.

In support of the remarkable progress made by the company is a rising V price which is increasing margins.

I haven’t yet decided whether you are just not bright enough to understand that or are deliberately avoiding recognition of the significant progress made by BMN as part of your despicable trolling. Could be both.

Several years ago, even before BMN became a producer the CEO stated his intention to build a large low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform.

Despite the many local, regional and global challenges since then he is delivering on that promise, unlike like many other AIM wannabe junior miner CEOs.

With the imminent development of the energy business that target should soon be achieved.

This is why so many admire and respect Fortune Mojapelo.

Despite the impact of load shedding (which cost Vanchem 200 mtV of lost production in H1) BMN still produced a record year for group production.

The necessary investment over the last two years at Vametco and Vanchem is now producing results and the company is likely to have yet another year of record production in 2023.

People here appreciate the excellent job done in building from scratch a company that owns two of only four primary vanadium production plants just at a time when demand for vanadium seems set to rise as VRFB energy storage picks up pace.

This seems to be reflected in a rising V price across all markets, increasing BMNs profit margins.

To grow the company despite all the challenges of the last few years is frankly an astonishing achievement by the CEO.

Everything is in place for an exciting 2023. Sooner or later this will be reflected in the share price when the market wakes up to the potential.

Haven’t seen that for some time. Looks like this round of Vanadium price rises is set to continue.

https://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

Employee relations - Well they negotiated a multi year wage agreement. They value safety record and working conditions so much that it is published in their Q Updates. I wouldn’t take too much notice from the odd hearsay comment of a possibly disgruntled employee. You won’t believe this I know but some people even make negative comments about BMN on this bb, despite all the evidence pointing towards a very positive future (in my opinion).

So raise a smile, go out for a walk and enjoy life. No need to feel so miserable and pessimistic.

Just my opinion.