Member Info for Pdub

Cindercone Fortune is not perfect. No one is.

However are misleading statements like “… if he starts delivering on his promises …” really necessary or even fair?

There have been some delays and changes of plan, sometimes for good reasons and sometimes for factors beyond their control.

There have also been promises deliver.

Vametco was upgraded very successfully and is delivering the sustainable production promised.
Vanchem Kiln 3 was commissioned successfully although not without some issues.
Electrolyte Plant looks like being delivered and commissioned in H1.
Investment in Invinity proved to be very lucrative.
Etc etc

Credit where it is due please.

You are entitled to your opinion about Fortune’s remuneration. I prefer to wait and see where the share price ends up before judging him. It is right and proper that he is rewarded for those aspects of his job that have gone well, as we can see on the operations side of the business.

I am sure you will celebrate with me that BMN is still profitable at this level and US prices apparently holding firm.

Apologies Cindercone. When I checked somewhere around 4 am it showed no change. Clearly an error on my part.

Agreed Cindercone …. A big year for BMN and Fortune Mojapelo. Just for balance (!?!) I trust you will praise Fortune if the debt is resolved in a positive way, the BE hive off goes well (if and when MUST is sorted out), production targets are hit despite load shedding, the electrolyte plant is fully commissioned in H1, costs are controlled and 2023 turns out to be a record year for production. That is a tough challenge but quite possible given what we already know.

Icing on the cake if V price plays ball is a highly profitable year and electrolyte sales in H2.

If all that is achieved I would be very surprised not to see a substantial rerate of the share price.

Sorry. 200 mtV lost to to load shedding was H2 2022, not H1.

I did invite others to comment on my post at 10.01. Here are my thoughts.

Only conclusions of a general kind can be reached as there are so many other variables, debt level being one of them.

However that does not mean that there is nothing useful from the numbers. The greatest absurdity for me is that in November 2017 the m/c was £68 million and now is £56 million. Why is that absurd? In 2017 BMN only owned 26.6% of Vametco whereas today they own 74% of Vametco and 100% of Vanchem. That means attributable production in Q3 2017 was 177 mtV vs 973 mtV in Q4 2022. Remember the Vanadium price was very similar at around $39 kgV. Production costs at Vametco were slightly lower in 2017 ($18. Vs $21.1) but the Dollar Rand rate will offset some of this (13.1 vs 17.8 today).

There are a few other noteworthy points.

Dilution just 59% from 2017 to today. Not bad for an AIM growth company. Even better is that since May 2019 dilution of just 15%.

Q4 was the highest group production total since BMN became a producer. The total of 1184 mtV was 128 tons greater than the previous best Q and that was despite lost production of 200 mtV in H1 due to load shedding.

A number of posters keep mentioning past events as indicating a negative future. In my opinion that demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the company’s achievements over the last 2 years and how operationally BMN is in a far better position than at any time in its history. In my opinion it is only a matter of time before we see that in financials and a positive response from the market, if not before.

Clearly vanadium price is key here. I note that the small retrace seems to have fizzled out. Prices remain at a very profitable level given the information in the public domain. It is quite possible that the new norm is substantially higher than in previous years, perhaps driven by increasing demand from the growing VRFB industry.

To me the key question is not are BMN making an operational profit but how much profit are they making.

“ What are people on this board expecting? They are expecting decent profits to be made, the share price says otherwise”

That is not even worth a response.

ARCM

“ Despite all peoples predictions we are not going to be as profitable as people might be predicting in the Q1 update.”

What do you think people are predicting and why do you think they are wrong?

Interested in your thoughts.

Thanks for your comments SandW.

Was hoping for something a little more intelligent

Any other errors … tough! Third version.

In an idle moment I researched some points in time when Vanadium price was similar to today and recorded a variety of numbers. Makes fascinating reading. I used European FeV price as the yardstick. No particular reason. I include the BMN % ownership of Vametco and Vanchem. Some of the data is on that day, some is from preceding published Q results. I would be interested in any thoughts.

20 November 2017 Vametco (26.6% BMN)

Euro FeV $39.5 kgV, China FeV $40 kgV, Euro V2O5 $8 lb
Group production (Q3 2017) 669 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Sales (Q3 2017) 744 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Production Costs (Q3 2017) $18.1 kgV
Dollar Rand 13.1
Share price 8.4p
Shares in issue 807 million
M/C £68 million

20 May 2019 Vametco (74% BMN)

Euro FeV $39 kgV, China FeV $43 kgV, Euro V2O5 $8.8 lb
Group production (Q1 2019) 649 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Sales (Q1 2019) 508 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Production Costs (Q1 2019) $18.6 kgV
Dollar Rand 14.4
Share price 25.5p
Shares in issue 1,119 million
M/C £252 million

2 September 2021 Vametco (74% BMN) and Vanchem (100% BMN)

Euro FeV $38.8 kgV, China FeV $42.5 kgV, Euro V2O5 $9.2 lb
Group production (Q2 2021) 886 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Sales (Q2 2021) 820 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Production Costs (Q2 2021) $25.8 Vam / $30.9 kgV Vanch
Dollar Rand 14.75
Share price 12.25p
Shares in issue 1,193 million
M/C £146 million

23 May 2022 Vametco (74% BMN) and Vanchem (100% BMN)

Euro FeV $38.8 kgV, China FeV $39.5 kgV, Euro V2O5 $9.9 lb
Group production (Q1 2022) 972 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Sales (Q1 2022) 857 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Production Costs (Q1 2022) $22.1 kgV Vam / $38.6
Dollar Rand 15.87
Share price 8.95p
Shares in issue 1265 million
M/C £113 million

29 March. 2023 Vametco (74% BMN) and Vanchem (100% BMN)

Euro FeV $38.75 kgV, China FeV $41.2 kgV, Euro V2O5 $9.4 lb
Group production (Q4 2022) 1184 mtV (from Vametco and Vanchem)
Group Sales (Q4 2022) 905 mtV (from Vametco and Vanchem)
Group Production Costs (Q4 2022) $25.1 kgV (Vametco $21.1 kgV)
Dollar Rand 17.8
Share price 4.32p
Shares in issue 1,287 million
M/C £56 million

I don’t believe this. Another error. It was when V price was similar to today not share price . Correct version to follow. Sorry. Should check properly before posting. Too focussed on the actual numbers.

Where I could not find group production costs I have given Vametco and Vanchem separately

Error was production and sales given as kgV and should be mtV. Correct version:

In an idle moment I researched some points in time when BMN share price was similar to today and recorded a variety of numbers. Makes fascinating reading. I used European FeV price as the yardstick. No particular reason. I include the BMN % ownership of Vametco and Vanchem. Some of the data is on that day, some is from preceding published Q results. I would be interested in any thoughts.

20 November 2017 Vametco (26.6% BMN)

Euro FeV $39.5 kgV, China FeV $40 kgV, Euro V2O5 $8 lb
Group production (Q3 2017) 669 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Sales (Q3 2017) 744 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Production Costs (Q3 2017) $18.1 kgV
Dollar Rand 13.1
Share price 8.4p
Shares in issue 807 million
M/C £68 million

20 May 2019 Vametco (74% BMN)

Euro FeV $39 kgV, China FeV $43 kgV, Euro V2O5 $8.8 lb
Group production (Q1 2019) 649 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Sales (Q1 2019) 508 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Production Costs (Q1 2019) $18.6 kgV
Dollar Rand 14.4
Share price 25.5p
Shares in issue 1,119 million
M/C £252 million

2 September 2021 Vametco (74% BMN) and Vanchem (100% BMN)

Euro FeV $38.8 kgV, China FeV $42.5 kgV, Euro V2O5 $9.2 lb
Group production (Q2 2021) 886 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Sales (Q2 2021) 820 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Production Costs (Q2 2021) $25.8 Vam / $30.9 kgV Vanch
Dollar Rand 14.75
Share price 12.25p
Shares in issue 1,193 million
M/C £146 million

23 May 2022 Vametco (74% BMN) and Vanchem (100% BMN)

Euro FeV $38.8 kgV, China FeV $39.5 kgV, Euro V2O5 $9.9 lb
Group production (Q1 2022) 972 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Sales (Q1 2022) 857 mtV (from Vametco)
Group Production Costs (Q1 2022) $22.1 kgV Vam / $38.6
Dollar Rand 15.87
Share price 8.95p
Shares in issue 1265 million
M/C £113 million

29 March. 2023 Vametco (74% BMN) and Vanchem (100% BMN)

Euro FeV $38.75 kgV, China FeV $41.2 kgV, Euro V2O5 $9.4 lb
Group production (Q4 2022) 1184 mtV (from Vametco and Vanchem)
Group Sales (Q4 2022) 905 mtV (from Vametco and Vanchem)
Group Production Costs (Q4 2022) $25.1 kgV (Vametco $21.1 kgV)
Dollar Rand 17.8
Share price 4.32p
Shares in issue 1,287 million
M/C £56 million

Sorry just spotted a major unit error. I will correct and republish. Hold your horses!

In an idle moment I researched some points in time when BMN share price was similar to today and recorded a variety of numbers. Makes fascinating reading. I used European FeV price as the yardstick. No particular reason. I include the BMN % ownership of Vametco and Vanchem. Some of the data is on that day, some is from preceding published Q results. I would be interested in any thoughts.

20 November 2017 Vametco (26.6% BMN)

Euro FeV $39.5 kgV, China FeV $40 kgV, Euro V2O5 $8 lb
Group production (Q3 2017) 669 kgV (from Vametco)
Group Sales (Q3 2017) 744 kgV (from Vametco)
Group Production Costs (Q3 2017) $18.1 kgV
Dollar Rand 13.1
Share price 8.4p
Shares in issue 807 million
M/C £68 million

20 May 2019 Vametco (74% BMN)

Euro FeV $39 kgV, China FeV $43 kgV, Euro V2O5 $8.8 lb
Group production (Q1 2019) 649 kgV (from Vametco)
Group Sales (Q1 2019) 508 kgV (from Vametco)
Group Production Costs (Q1 2019) $18.6 kgV
Dollar Rand 14.4
Share price 25.5p
Shares in issue 1,119 million
M/C £252 million

2 September 2021 Vametco (74% BMN) and Vanchem (100% BMN)

Euro FeV $38.8 kgV, China FeV $42.5 kgV, Euro V2O5 $9.2 lb
Group production (Q2 2021) 886 kgV (from Vametco)
Group Sales (Q2 2021) 820 kgV (from Vametco)
Group Production Costs (Q2 2021) $25.8 Vam / $30.9 kgV Vanch
Dollar Rand 14.75
Share price 12.25p
Shares in issue 1,193 million
M/C £146 million

23 May 2022 Vametco (74% BMN) and Vanchem (100% BMN)

Euro FeV $38.8 kgV, China FeV $39.5 kgV, Euro V2O5 $9.9 lb
Group production (Q1 2022) 972 kgV (from Vametco)
Group Sales (Q1 2022) 857 kgV (from Vametco)
Group Production Costs (Q1 2022) $22.1 kgV Vam / $38.6
Dollar Rand 15.87
Share price 8.95p
Shares in issue 1265 million
M/C £113 million

29 March. 2023 Vametco (74% BMN) and Vanchem (100% BMN)

Euro FeV $38.75 kgV, China FeV $41.2 kgV, Euro V2O5 $9.4 lb
Group production (Q4 2022) 1184 kgV (from Vametco and Vanchem)
Group Sales (Q4 2022) 905 kgV (from Vametco and Vanchem)
Group Production Costs (Q4 2022) $25.1 kgV (Vametco $21.1 kgV)
Dollar Rand 17.8
Share price 4.32p
Shares in issue 1,287 million
M/C £56 million

The energy storage market is a relatively new industry. It is going to be a huge global industry. No single technology is likely to be best for every application. VRFBs will be just one of a number of technologies meeting this demand but even a relatively small percentage of this market will create a very large demand for vanadium and electrolyte.

The BMN management know this and have placed BMN in the perfect position to benefit from growing global demand for vanadium and the increasing opportunities in SA and the rest of Africa for VRFBs and electrolyte sales / rentals.

How?
The acquisition and upgrading of 2 of the 4 primary vanadium production facilities.
The acquisition of the Vametco vanadium mine.
The rights to other in ground vanadium resources (the Brits project next to Vametco and the very large world class Mokopane resource) securing vanadium supplies for many decades to come.
Nearing completion the BELCO electrolyte manufacturing plant.
Partnerships and investments in VRFB energy storage companies.

Very few vanadium companies are as well placed as BMN to take advantage of these opportunities. Several wannabe vanadium producers will face fund raising challenges and planning and construction timelines. BMN has completed all of that and is ahead of the field.

Other technologies will in most cases take years to move from lab to large scale commercial production, if at all. However the cake will be very large and even a small slice will be very valuable.

Some excellent posts HarChris. The only question I have for you is about management has left lot to be desired over the last year or so. I assume you are referring to PR / Comms. If so I would agree but it needs that context.

If you are referring generally to management over the last year or so then I would have to disagree.

Operationally so much has been achieved during 2021 / 2022 and that has placed BMN in profit in recent months and the outlook for 2023 looks very positive. Long term that is likely to be far more relevant to share price than any current weaknesses in promoting the business.

However that is just my opinion. Time will tell how accurate it is.

Good to see the slow down or halt to the very recent Vanadium price retrace. Hopefully a new base forming for another increase. Either way BMN should still be making a very healthy profit.

Should be possible to pay off a significant part of Orion debt in cash. Being profitable will make it much easier to negotiate new terms if any debt is left over. Market just needs confirmation of these numbers in my opinion.

I agree with much of what you say Paul but even those like myself who see a very positive future for BMN and its shareholders deserve a forum not plagued with trolls spouting childishly negative nonsense. Telegram provides such a space.

There is room for both. I choose to mainly post here but some of the discussions on Telegram are very useful.

I thought you were, Coffeecups. Don’t give up your crown so easily …