Member Info for Pdub

Cindercone please change your boring and highly misleading record.

Haha what utter nonsense Beginerman.

I asked you some easy questions but you couldn’t even be bothered to attempt an answer.

You asked me a reasonable but difficult question to answer. But I showed you respect by writing as full an answer as I could (which by the way took some time), and only using your name to ensure that you saw my answer.

Then you come back with such a pathetic response. You sad little man. I gave you the chance to show courtesy and gain credibility and you failed big time.

You are simply too frightened to even attempt to challenge my answers and too small minded to concede that I tried to answer your question fully and may have made some valid points.

Very disappointed in you.

UKSteveg I am fully aware of the prices shown on AsianMetals. However as has been discussed here on a number of occasions their prices appear to be accurate for Asia/China but not for Europe and US. VanadiumPrice.com I believe use AM prices.

If you want accurate US prices you need Fastmarkets or Ryan’s notes. My understanding is that US prices are much stronger than elsewhere and that is where BMN are targetting sales of Nitrovan

UKSteveg the RNS quoted Ryan’s notes for US v price as $42.5 for Q1. On another platform I have been informed that the latest price for US is $42.

The US is BMNs largest market and targeted by BMN because of the high prices. That suggests good profitability so far and hence the link to debt restructuring and reduction. Hope that helps.

I would add that we don’t know the additional margin for Nitrovan nor the margin for higher value chemicals from Vanchem or any margins on electrolyte sales in H2.

TA do please comment on the specific points that I raised. I am sure everyone would appreciate your insight. Thais is after all a bb to discuss BMN not Pdub.

Haha thank you TA for targetting me. That is what I want you got do. It simply highlights your complete inability to counter the content of my posts.

Once again thank yo.

Part 3

So in conclusion and in answer to your question I cannot give specific forecasts of profit and debt repayment. However given all that we know it is likely that BMN will make substantial profit this year and that may play a very significant roll in debt repayment. Others have attempted to quantify this if you are after specifics. Too many variables and a volatile v price for me to be drawn into the prediction game.

Debt repayment. A lot is being made of this as a drag on share price. Maybe so. However BMN have published a number of options that they are considering and are actively negotiating. I believe they have said have said that more detail we will be available in Final Results which have to be published by end June. We will just have to wait a little longer.

CLNs. Trigger price is 17p. Surely impossible from here? There are some that would definitely agree. However unlikely let’s consider the likely impact of sustained V price of $50+ kgV in second half of year. We don’t yet know the rate at which VRFB development will push up V demand. Announcement of significant electrolyte sales in H2. None of us know how that would impact share price. More clarity on finances and dept reduction may also create positive sentiment push up share price. So at this moment in time 17p may appear to be unlikely but not impossible.

So Beginerman despite your unwillingness to answer my questions I have respected your request and laid out my thoughts as honestly as I can. If you were after specific numbers I cannot give you what I don’t know. As the year rolls on that may change but for now 2023 looks like a profitable year and one way or anther the Orion debt will be dealt with.

Part 2

So let’s start with the variables.

Production. Very definitely a positive and if the numbers from last few Qs continue on same trajectory should hit target and maybe exceed it. Given March April numbers for Vanchem and Vametco maintenance shutdown moved forward to Q3 then Q2 should be very strong and give a pointer to where 2023 might be heading. On known information this looks like a big positive and the company have repeated that on track to meet guidance so I will go with that.

Costs. These are more difficult to predict as they in turn are dependent on other variables such as production and at Vanchem how much high value chemicals they process. If I am correct about production then I would expect the fixed cost per kgV to be lower than in Q1. AISC I would expect to be in the $32 to $35 kgV range but again not a prediction as dependent on too many variables beyond control of the company.

Revenue. This is where I tend to avoid predictions due to the number of variables. For example production total, Dollar Rand rate, V price, proportion sold in higher value markets eg US, aerospace, etc, stock pile depletion, sales volume, and so on. For those reasons any prediction would be nothing more than an informed best guess. You should by now know that I tend not to do that. I stick to known facts and draw general conclusions from them. Therefore I expect revenue to up in 2023, and also supported by unknown sales of electrolyte. A big factor is V price recently up now down but all indications are growing VRFB market should push it back up again through 2023. Volatility less noticeable in the US which is currently highest priced market and BMNs largest.

Profit. Completely impossible to predict as far as I am concerned for all the reasons above. There is enough factual information available to draw the conclusion that Q1 was highly profitable for BMN. Should that continue throughout 2023 then it is probable that cash in bank will grow significantly and allow BMN to pay off a significant part of the debt should they choose that path. Just how much cash they bank is going to be highly dependent on the Vanadium price and therefore impossible to predict. Additionally they could deplete the stockpile for the purpose of cash for debt repayment. However there is a limit to how much they may sell as the stockpile is used to smooth supply to customers, particularly for example during maintenance or other shut down periods. Whatever the profit returned and cash in bank it is also possible that FM may decide to renegotiate terms leveraging the much stronger financial position of the company if that suits his growth plans for the business.

Beginerman how you have the cheek in even show your face after being either unable or unwilling to answer even the most basic questions about BMN positives. If you are just a straight forward investor should have had no problem discussing the points I raised with you. However it would seem your obsessive negativity prevents you from confirming even something so factual as the dollar rand rate is benefitting BMN. CHECK THE RNS FOR CONFIRMATION!

Now as you have asked me a question, unlike you, I will show courtesy and give you the best answer that I can. You asked me “expand upon the level of profit and debt reduction that you anticipate, as both will have a massive impact upon how the share price will perform.”

First let me point out a significant contrast in the nature of our questions. I asked you to merely confirm existing published facts and consider conclusions based upon those facts. All very straightforward and no reason not to oblige other than they were all positives. Certainly nothing challenging for someone like yourself. Yet you refused to do so. Interesting.

By way of distraction and in complete contrast you ask me to do the impossible and predict levels of profit and debt reduction at some point in the future.

An obvious question is who has been selling?

It has been reported that Baker Steel have been selling down their 26 million (?) shares.

Assuming this is London listed BSRT it is worth looking them up. What you will find is a falling fund value (contrary to their sector), a falling share price and an announcement of no dividend.

This suggests an ii that has its own reasons for selling its BMN shares as they seek to reorganise their portfolio, with the all too visible impact on the BMN share price. Once any overhang is cleared and following today’s good BMN RNS it would not be unreasonable to hope for some recovery in BMN share price. However this is AIM so not a prediction just a speculation.

This seems to a good job of summarising what is a very good RNS:

“ Fortune Mojapelo, CEO of Bushveld Minerals Limited, commented:

"We are on track to meet annual group production and cost guidance. Vanchem's power curtailment solution with the local municipality announced recently, has so far provided a more reliable feed of electricity contributing to improved operational stability in the months of March and April. In addition, securing third party, low silica feed for Vanchem will support more stable production going forward. Vametco performed consistently against the comparable period in 2022, albeit there was disruption as a result of high rainfall and work to replace the secondary crusher.

I'm pleased to report our sales volumes increased by 20% in the quarter after we decided to drawdown on Vanchem's inventory from 2022 , during this drawdown phase we undertook a two- week maintenance at the facility. "

Good solid performance in Q1

Remember when studying costs at Vanchem they are higher than Vametco but that is partly because they make products such as chemicals that require more processing and therefore higher costs BUT also attract higher prices than standard vanadium products like FeV or flake

Sadly a predictable and shallow response Beginerman. However I am pleased that you won’t or can’t recognise the very positive operational progress made by this company. Something that everyone reading these posts can witness and draw their own conclusions about your agenda.

ARCM, Beginerman and anyone else. Please focus your answers on me. That is what my huge ego demands. I love it….

But only because it demonstrates that you seem unable to denounce the positive progress that the company is making.

If belittling me is the best you can do that is fine, … or you could try writing a serious critique of the content of my posts. Remember though that banging on about the share price means nothing to me. I am interested in company progress because in the end that is what will drive a rising and sustainable share price.

ARCM I have never applied any description to my or your investing quality.

I have laid out my reasons for being here.

Now that RNS was good. Not perfect but good. However as I said BEFORE the RNS was released it is just another step along the path. My commentary regularly refers to 2023 and beyond (check my posts) and a market wanting to see profit and resolution of debt. Clearly both are on their way.

Stop being personal and rise to the challenge and for once answer those positive points.

As far as the ‘market’ is concerned don’t make me laugh. A market that allows an after hours UT of 1 share at 4.05p to reflect a closing price? Even you must admit that is ridiculous.

24 April 17.55 Beginerman challenge issued by Pdub but so far Beginerman has been unable to answer.

Still unable to admit that BMN have made substantial operational progress over the last two years. Are you simply being awkward for the sake of it or do you genuinely not get it???

I get your point about share price. It’s ridiculously low. I agree that PR is poor and I understand the mistrust of the market for a company that has recorded losses in the past.??

But that is past performance. ??

Do you agree that the upgrades at both plants over the last two years have increased production and that combined with V prices higher than AISC profitability has returned?If not then what is your evidence??

Do you agree that the Dollar Rand rate is now beneficial to BMN? If not what is your evidence??

Do you agree that from all available information and unless otherwise informed the electrolyte plant should be commissioned by end of H1? If not why not??

Do you agree that the company have said that they are discussing a number of options re debt settlement? If not why not?

??I look forward to reading your thoughts.

ARCM are you defending Cindercone’s lie or trying to distract?

Before you answer remember exactly what he said before you spring to his defence.

And if you think share price is the only important thing that matters then you are very naive. Question is how does a company achieve a high share price.

Cindercone: “ Been three years without a shred of good news.”

Sorry but I have only one appropriate response for such a silly statement … liar.

Cindercone: “

Cindercone quote: “ Mojapelo will miss a target" - Tick”

Really? Exactly which target have they missed?

BMN only give annual guidance, not Quarterly. You will only know if guidance (targets) have been met at end of 2023. And they are maintaining guidance from Q4 update.

I am pleased that they took the opportunity to carry out some maintenance at both Vametco and Vanchem, resulting in Vametco maintenance shutdown moving from Q2 to Q3 and inventory at Vanchem being sold whilst plant shut for two weeks. This is exactly how to run a good mining and processing company.